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Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR)

Global assessment on tropospheric ozone's distribution and trends, its impact on climate change, human health, and crop/ecosystem research. Presented by O. Cooper and M. Schultz, based on input from the TOAR workshop 28-30 April 2015 in AEMET.

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Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR)

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  1. Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR) Global metrics for climate change, human health and crop/ecosystem research Presentation is based on the input from O. Cooper and M. Schultz And outcome of the TOAR workshop 28-30 April 2015 in AEMET Stakeholders:

  2. Mission: • Provide the research community with an up-to-date global assessment of tropospheric ozone’s distribution and trends from the surface to the tropopause. • Facilitate access to the ozone metrics necessary for quantifying ozone’s impact on human health and crop/ecosystem productivity. • >160 scientists from 33 nations, representing all 7 continents

  3. TOAR Member Nations

  4. TOAR Organization TOAR is a science effort initiated by IGAC, and developed by an international team of experts. TOAR receives financial and logistical support from - IGAC - The World Meteorological Organization - US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Coordinated by an eleven-member Steering Committee The assessment report will be published as a series of 8 stand-alone chapters in a special issue of a peer-reviewed, open-access journal.

  5. Troposphericozonedataforuse in TOAR analyses • Global databaseof (hourly) surfaceozoneobservations (Forschungszentrum Jülich) • Ozonesonderecords (WOUDC, NILU) • MOZAIC/IAGOS; otheraircraftdata(?) • Satellitedata • FTIR, LIDAR, DOAS, … surface freetroposphere

  6. The TOAR (surfacestations) database Airbase (Europe):~3500 ozonerecords, earliestdatafrom 1990 CaPMon (Canada): 19 ozonerecords, earliestdatafrom 1995 CASTNET (US): 79 ozonerecords, earliestdatafrom 1987 EANET (Asia): 16 ozonerecords, earliestdatafrom 2000 EMEP (Europe)1:196 ozonerecords, earliestdatafrom 1977 GAW2 (global): 112 ozonerecords, earliestdatafrom 1971 UBAG3 (Germany): 599 ozonerecords, earliestdatafrom 1990 (19694) US AQS (US): ~2000 ozonerecords, earliestdatafrom 1980 1somedata also contained in Airbase 2somedata also contained in Airbase, CaPMon, EMEP, or EANET 3morerecentdata also contained in Airbaseor EMEP 4collectionby H. Geiß

  7. Data qualitycontrol • Standardized „reports“ withplotsandstatisticalanalysis • Outlierfilterprogram • Expert knowledge, i.e. discussionwithcommunity(!) Database allowstosetstatusof a dataseriesandflageach individual datavalue(WMO standardflaggingscheme)

  8. TOAR Database is up and running http://join.iek.fz-juelich.de:50091

  9. TOAR Ozone Metrics The TOAR database will contain various ozone metrics at thousands of surface sites around the world. The full suite of metrics is still being developed but some key metrics that will be included are: Human Health: - Maximum daily 8-hour average   - Maximum daily 1-hour average Vegetation: - Cumulative Exposure Index: W126 - Cumulative Exposure Index: AOT40 - Flux-Based Index: PODy (will only be calculated for a limited number of sites due to the need for additional meteorological and soil parameters) Climate Change: - Monthly means, medians and various percentiles at rural sites - Monthly and seasonal mean vertical profiles where data are available

  10. Summary (statistics group) • Decisiontouse „at least 3 yearsbetween 2009 and 2013“ asthebasisforcharacterizingpresent-daydistributions (don‘tfocus on meanvaluesonly!) • Choose a secondreferenceperiod 1990-1994 toallowfor „changedetection“ (not tobeconfusedwithtrendanalysis) – again: don‘tfocusonly on meanvalues, but consider also thechanges in thefrequencydistributions. • As a default, use non-parametricMann-Kendall test to identify significant trending and Sen-Theilto estimate magnitude of trend, and also includeparametric (linear/quadratic) testresultsfortrendsifstatisticalassumptionsaremet.

  11. Summary … • Assesstrendsover different time periodstoinvestigatevaryingtrendingpatterns • One example is to perform trending over each running 15-year period to obtain a rate of change for each period using the Mann-Kendall/Sen-Theil approach. Using a modified Mann-Kendall approach, test overall whether the magnitude of the trend is increasing, decreasing, or not changing. • Anotherapproachistouse the quadratic linear regression approach assuming the regression satisfies assumptions

  12. Summary … • Somemorediscussionsandanalysisneededtodecide on minimumdatacapturerequirementsanduncertaintyestimates (default: use 75% becauseofhistoricalapplicationbyvariousgovernments) – datacapturerequirementmayvarydepending on selectedmetrics. Example: Slope statistics based on 80% complete data series 6-year time series 15-year time series

  13. Timeline December 2014: TOAR Workshop 1.01 in Boulder February – March, 2015: Preliminary organization of TOAR chapter author teams and working groups. February – December 2015: Collect ozone observations and populate TOAR database, begin work on calculating ozone metrics around the world April 28-30, 2015: TOAR Workshop 1.02, Madrid, Spain December 2015: Produce first draft of assessment report January 2016: Workshop 1.03 – location to-be-determined December 2016: Submit assessment report to a peer-reviewed journal and perform any necessary updates to the ozone metrics on the database

  14. TOAR Workshop 1.02 April 28-30, 2015 AgenciaEstatal de Meteorología (AEMET), Madrid, Spain

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