Paul S. Trotter United States Department of Commerce NOAA/NWS

1. National Hurricane Conference Orlando, Florida April 10-14, 2006 “Warning Messages: Improving Response” …building “better” relationships to get the “correct” response from warnings, advisories, forecasts, statements, and emergency messages! Paul S. Trotter United States Department of Commerce NOAA/NWS Meteorologist-in-Charge New Orleans/Baton Rouge 62300 Airport Road Slidell, Louisiana 70460-5243 Paul.Trotter@noaa.gov www.srh.noaa.gov/lix (985) 649-0357x222 fax (985) 649-2907 Stamp developed by FreddieZeigler. Most photos from NOAA/NWS, Times Picayune and Sun Herald.

2. All Storms Passing Within 65 nm of the Louisiana Coastline 1850s to early 2000s

3. Maximum Envelope of Water (MEOW) for the New Orleans Basin (Cat 4 moving north at 15mph). Preparations: Multiple and periodic meetings with emergency partners focused on hurricane preparedness and safety, planning, and programming; Activities include: the President’s Hurricane Week, NOAA Hurricane Hunter Tours, and Hurricane Exercises; past and historical storms, in-house retrofits, area conferences, public awareness, media assistance and workshops, and home industries activities. Other activities include: tourism, economic, environmental, and transportation interests, family planning, etc.

4. Storm Surge Susceptibility

5. IVAN EVACUATION CHOKE POINTS I-10 EB I-10 EB to I-12 WB I-12 Alternate LA 434 to I-10 I-10 WB I-10/I-12 Merge 5 to 2 Lane Merge I-10 EB & WB 3 to 2 Lane Merge I-10 East I-510 to Miss. Via I-59 I-10 West US 51 to Loyola

6. PHASED EVACUATION

7. Size of storm influences storm surgeHurricane Charley Storm Surge with different size wind field

8. Katrina vs Camille • Katrina was much larger • Radius of Maximum Wind (~eye) - 40 miles vs 7 miles • Slightly different angle of attack • Deep storm surge over larger area. Our reference to Camille in our products proved critical.

9. What Made Katrina So Damaging • Unusual combination of powerful intensity and large dimension • Category 5 Hurricane in the mid Gulf on Sunday Aug 28 – max wind 175 mph. • Hurricane force winds extended 90 to 100 miles east of the center. • Hurricane weakened as it moved ashore but the wind field remained very large • Large wind field contributed to powerful storm surge over wide area. • Contribution of large wave development offshore prior to landfall also a factor. • 55 ft wave ht recorded

10. The Problem! History repeating itself?????? In the early 1900s, African Americans were held on levees at gun point to assist in fighting floods. Did we get the right message to the “nth” person? Social Problems?… Yes, this happens in America. Katrina spared no one and crossed America’s social and economic borders. Over 60% of the deaths in Louisiana were said to be people over 76 years old! What message? What sirens? What flyers? What enhanced partnerships? .

11. This publication was written in 1915. The information on these two pages talks about refugees and homeless as a result of the great flood of 1912 along the Mississippi River. The name of the publication is “the National Duty, Mississippi River Flood Problem, how it can be prevented” by John A. Fox prepared in 1915 for the Mississippi River Levee Association.

12. Although many evacuated (1.2million or more in Louisiana and Mississippi) and were safely sheltered (as many as 25,000 in the Superdome), the death toll for the area was approximately 1300 people (estimated 2000 more have been reported missing). This is unacceptable. NOAA/NWS has to get the message to the “nth” person to get the ultimate goal of no deaths. Post storm cleanup months later revealed bodies in attics and debris. Over 6,000 homes in the city of Biloxi were leveled. Over 280,000 LA area homes were damaged or destroyed (Katrina and one month later with Rita in LA…28,000 in Andrew). Nearly 5000 boats were lost impacting property and the fishing industry.

13. Relationships Matter! Brian Williams interest in weather helped. Robert Ricks, Senior Meteorologist and N.O. native, tells the story. Relationships matter!

14. Relationships Matter! A Great Relationship! Barter system at its best!

15. RELATIONSHIPS MATTER! Mr. Coleman held his store open to ensure NOAA/NWS met our mission delivery… aiding the nation’s economy, being wise environmental stewards, saving life and property!

16. This picture says it all. Jake Herty, III, with Jake Herty, Jr. receiving his 35 year Federal Service Award while being group briefed by Glen Covert and Marsha Nolan (Employees Assistance Program). Jake, a New Orleans native, was the lone local NWS employee unaccounted for during Katrina. He took care of his father because he was fortunate enough to be well informed. Unfortunately others do not have the luxury to be employed by an agency which has saving lives and property as its’ mission. Again, Relationships Matter!

17. …Headlines… …New Information… …Areas Affected… …Watches/Warning… …Storm Information …Precautionary Actions… …Storm Surge and Storm Tide… …Winds… …Probability of Hurricane/Tropical Storm Conditions …Inland Flooding… …Tornadoes… …Optional Headlines.. …Next Update… Hurricane Local Statement- Format

18. NWS Hurricane Call To Action Statements • Information housed in templates since 1999. Developed by WFO Tampa Bay. • Different impacts expressed based on wind speed (Saffir-Simpson Category) and associated damage of tropical systems. • Statements become more dire as hurricane intensityincreases to express urgency of the situation.

19. WTUS84 KLIX 281521 HLSLIX LAZ038-040-050-056>070-MSZ080>082-281900 -HURRICANE KATRINA LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1015 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...HURRICANE KATRINA NOW A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE PACKING SUSTAINEDWINDS OF 175 MPH... ...DIRECT STRIKE OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE THREATENINGHURRICANE EXPECTED... ...RUSH PROTECTIVE MEASURES TO COMPLETION AND LEAVE THE AREANOW!... ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTALMISSISSIPPI FROM MORGAN CITY EAST TO THE ALABAMA FLORIDA BORDER... ....DANGEROUS HURRICANE KATRINA MOVING WEST NORTHWEST IN THE GULF OFMEXICO... ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...XXXX ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OFMEXICO COAST AS A CATASTROPHIC LIFE THREATENING HURRICANE. WHILEEXACT LOCATION LANDFALL IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...SIGNIFICANT ANDLIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLENEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE LANDFALL AREA. A FEW AREAS MAYEXPERIENCE STORM SURGE FLOODING AS HIGH AS 25 FEET ALONG WITH LARGEAND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THECENTER MAKES LANDFALL. RESIDENTS IN AREAS PRONE TO STORM SURGEFLOODING SHOULD LEAVE NOW! HEED EVACUATION RECOMMENDATION FROM LOCALEMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. SECONDARY ROADS OUTSIDE LEVEEPROTECTION WILL LIKELY BECOME IMPASSABLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. ...WIND IMPACTS...XXX KATRINA IS FORECAST TO MOVE ASHORE AS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE...SIMILAR IN STRENGTH TO HURRICANE CAMILLE IN 1969. WINDS ASSOCIATEDCATEGORY 4 AND CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE CAN TOTALLY DESTROY MOBILEHOMES...AND CAUSE MAJOR DAMAGE TO EVEN WELL CONSTRUCTED BUILDINGS.HIGHER WIND SPEEDS ARE LIKELY TO BE EXPERIENCED ON UPPER FLOORS OFTALL BUILDINGS CAUSING DAMAGE.

20. WWUS74 KLIX 281550 NPWLIX URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 …INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING… ...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED... HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969. MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELYDAMAGED OR DESTROYED. THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL. PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOODFRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME WALL AND ROOF FAILURE. HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT. HAIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THEWINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK. POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS. THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BEKILLED.

21. HEADLINES AND IMPACT STATEMENTS FOR A TROPICAL STORM Wind - 50 to 60 mph gust 70 to 80 mph ...DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED... && MOST MOBILE HOMES WILL EXPERIENCE MODERATE TO SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE. SOME OF POOR CONSTRUCTION WILL BE UNINHABITABLE UNTIL REPAIRED. HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL HAVE DAMAGE TO SHINGLES...SIDING...AND GUTTERS. SOME WINDOWS WILL BE BLOWN OUT. MANY LANAI SCREENS AND POOL CAGES WILL BE DAMAGED. UNFASTENED HOME ITEMS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE WEIGHT WILL BECOME AIRBORNE...CAUSING ADDITIONAL DAMAGE AND POSSIBLE INJURY. DOZENS OF WIRES WILL BE BLOWN DOWN. LOCAL POWER OUTAGES WILL AFFECT ENTIRE NEIGHBORHOODS. && ... MANY LARGE BRANCHES OF HEALTHY TREES WILL BE SNAPPEDAND ROTTING SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED TREES WILL BE UPROOTED. DOZENS OF PALM FRONDS WILL BE BLOWN DOWN...AND MINOR DAMAGE WILL OCCUR TO CITRUS ORCHARDS AND NEWLY PLANTED LOWLAND CROPS.

22. HEADLINES AND IMPACT STATEMENTS FOR A STRONG TROPICAL STORM Wind - 60 to 70 mph gust 80 to 95 mph ...DANGEROUS WINDS EXPECTED... && POORLY CONSTRUCTED OR UNSECURED MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED.OTHERS WILL HAVE SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WALLS...AND WINDOWS...AND WILL LIKELY BE UNINHABITABLE UNTIL REPAIRED. HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL HAVE PARTIAL WALL AND ROOF FAILURE...AS WELL AS BLOWN OUT WINDOWS. MOST LANAI SCREENS AND POOL CAGES WILL HAVE DAMAGE...SOME WILL BE DESTROYED. UNSECURED LIGHT TO MODERATE WEIGHT OUTDOOR ITEMS WILL BECOME PROJECTILES...CAUSING ADDITIONAL DAMAGE AND PERHAPS INJURY.MANY AREAS WILL HAVE POWER OUTAGES...HUNDREDS OF WIRES WILL FALL...TRANSFORMERS WILL POP...AND SOME POWER POLES WILL BE PULLED DOWN. && ROTTING LARGE TREES WILL BE UPROOTED...MOST COMMON ON SATURATED GROUND.NUMEROUS LARGE BRANCHES OF HEALTHY TREES WILL SNAP...AND MODERATE DAMAGE IS EXPECTED IN CITRUS ORCHARDS. UP TO ONE HALF OF NEWLY PLANTED CROPS WILL BE DAMAGED.

23. HEADLINES AND IMPACT STATEMENTS FOR A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE Wind - 70 to 90 mph gust 100 to 110 mph ...VERY DANGEROUS WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE... & ...DESTRUCTION OF MOBILE HOMES LIKELY... && ...STRUCTURAL DAMAGE... & THE MAJORITY OF MOBILE HOMES WILL BE SEVERELY DAMAGED. HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL HAVE MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING PARTIAL WALL COLLAPSE AND ROOFS BEING LIFTED OFF.UP TO ONE QUARTER OF GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL. && PARTIAL ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED AT INDUSTRIAL PARKS...xxxOLDER LOW RISING APARTMENT ROOFS MAY ALSO BE TORN OFF...xxx. UP TO ONE QUARTER OF ALL GLASS IN HIGH RISE OFFICE BUILDINGS WILL BE BLOWN OUT. xxx && ...NATURAL DAMAGE... & ALL TREES WITH ROTTING BASES WILL BECOME UPROOTED OR SNAP.xxx.BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF OF HEALTHY SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED...xxx.

24. HEADLINES AND IMPACT STATEMENTS FOR A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE Wind - 90 to 110 mph gust 115 to 135 mph ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS WINDS WILL CAUSE EXTENSIVE DAMAGE... & ...ALL MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED... && ...STRUCTURAL DAMAGE... & HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL BE DESTROYED OR SEVERELY DAMAGED. MODERATE TO MAJOR DAMAGE OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOUSES WILL INCLUDE FAILURE OF UP TO ONE HALF OF ALL GABLED ROOFS. IN ADDITION....UP TO ONE QUARTER OF EXTERIOR WALLS WILL FAIL. && ALUMINUM AND LIGHT WEIGHT STEEL ROOFS WILL BE TORN OFF BUILDINGS AT INDUSTRIAL PARKS. PARTIAL ROOF AND EXTERIOR WALL FAILURES ARE LIKELY AT LOW RISE APARTMENT BUILDINGS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION. MOST WINDOWS IN HIGH RISE OFFICE BUILDINGS WILL BE BLOWN OUT...WITH OTHER MINOR TO MODERATE DAMAGE POSSIBLE DUE TO SWAYING. && AIRBORNE DEBRIS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE WEIGHT WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL MAJOR DAMAGE...AS WELL AS INJURIES AND A FEW FATALITIES. && NEAR TOTAL POWER LOSS IS EXPECTED. UP TO ONE HALF OF ALL POWER POLES WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN...AND HUNDREDS OF TRANSFORMERS WILL POP. THE AVAILABILITY OF POTABLE WATER WILL BE DIMINISHED AS FILTRATION SYSTEMS BEGIN TO FAIL. && ...NATURAL DAMAGE... & THOUSANDS OF TREES WILL BE SEVERELY DAMAGED. UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF ALL HEALTHY SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED TREES WILL SNAP OR BE UPROOTED...xxx. UP TO ONE HALF OF HEALTHY LARGE TREES WILL SNAP OR BE UPROOTED..xxx

25. HEADLINES AND IMPACT STATEMENTS FOR A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE Wind - 110 to 130 mph gust 140+ mph ...CATASTROPHIC DAMAGE EXPECTED TO MAN MADE AND NATURAL STRUCTURES... && HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL BE SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE TO ROOF AND WALLS. DESTRUCTION MAY OCCUR TO HOMES WITH GABLED ROOFS...WITH THE WIND LIFTING THEM OFF. MORE THAN HALF OF ALL INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED...OTHERS WILL HAVE PARTIAL ROOF AND WALL DAMAGE. WOOD FRAMED GARDEN APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED...AND OTHERS WILL HAVE PARTIAL ROOF AND WALL FAILURES. && HIGH RISE OFFICE BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY. MOST WINDOWS WILL BE BLOWN OUT...AND MODERATE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE. && AIRBORNE DEBRIS...SOME PIECES GREATER THAN 50 POUNDS...WILL CAUSE EXTENSIVE DAMAGE. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS ARE AT GREAT RISK FOR INJURY OR DEATH. && ELECTRICITY AND WATER WILL BE UNAVAILABLE FOR DAYS...AND PERHAPS WEEKS...AFTER THE STORM PASSES. && THE MAJORITY OF TREES WILL BE SNAPPED AND UPROOTED...MOST COMMON AMONG THOSE OF SMALL AND MEDIUM SIZE. ESTABLISHED GROUND CROPS WILL HAVE DAMAGE...WITH UP TO ONE HALF OF FIELDS NO LONGER ARABLE. LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE CRITICALLY INJURED OR KILLED.

26. HEADLINES AND IMPACT STATEMENTS FOR A CATEGORY FOUR AND FIVE HURRICANES Wind - 135 to 160 mph gust 170+ mph ...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED... && MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. && AT LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. && THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL. PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME WALL AND ROOF FAILURE. && HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT. && AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK. && POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS. && THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE KILLED.

27. Final Thoughts • Katrina combined powerful intensityover a large area to produce a devastating impact to residents of Louisiana and Mississippi. • Storm surge once again proved to be the hurricane’s most deadly agent in areas of low lying terrain • Hurricane forecasts are improving…however errors in forecasted landfall location and intensity will continue. • Upcoming Season….NOAA/NWS will issue an initial outlook for 2006 Hurricane Season in May. • Hurricane preparedness is a year round activity in an area of high frequency of hurricane activity such as southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi. • The question remains, “What is the rightmessage?”