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NOAA, National Weather ServiceMiddle Atlantic River Forecast Center Briefing 1:00PM, March 29, 2014
Key Message • Little change from yesterday’s briefing. Precipitation will linger longer, system is a bit slower, better chance of mixed precipitation/snow on backside of storm. • Prolonged period of moderate to heavy rain (along with some snow) is expected today continuing into Monday with storm total amounts from 1-3+ inches. Isolated amounts of 4+ inches possible. • Significant rises will occur on many rivers and streams with minor to moderate flooding possible at some locations. • Frozen ground, snowmelt where snow still exists, and dormant vegetation will result in enhanced runoff.
Timing of rain & flooding • Rain is expected across much of the region today through Sunday and into Monday across the east. • Rain may be heavy at times. • Any flooding that occurs would be Sunday/Monday. • Precipitation will likely linger across eastern basins well into Monday. • The rain may mix with and/or change to snow before ending across many areas, especially higher elevations. Some areas could see significant accumulations Sunday/Monday.
Rain on the ground • Rainfall for the 24-hour period ending at 8AMEDT, Saturday March 29, 2014.
Current Stream Conditions • Current streamflows are generally below normal to much below normal across New York and much of Pennsylvania • Current streamflows are generally close to normal across most of the rest of the MARFC service area.
Additional Rain • 1 to 3+ inches of rain predicted across all basins during the next 72 hours. • Heaviest rain Saturday and Saturday Night, especially across the northeast.
Flash Flood Potential • Less than an inch of rain in 3 hours is needed to cause Flash Flooding on some small streams and creeks.
Current River Forecasts • Minor flooding possible at some locations on Sunday/Monday. • Slight risk of isolated moderate flooding if rainfall exceeds current forecasts. • River forecasts will be updated every 6-12 hours as needed.
Uncertainty • Heaviest rainfall may form into narrow 10 to 30-mile wide bands. • Exact location and movement of these bands cannot be accurately predicted, so location of heaviest rain is still highly uncertain. • NWS will be closely monitoring developing storm and will issue additional briefing updates if needed.
Remember • Radar rainfall estimates may not be accurate where there is mixed precipitation, at the freezing level, etc… • MARFC graphics & info may not contain the entire flood threat. See info from your local weather forecast office for watches, warnings, flash flooding, coastal flooding, river flooding in tidal reaches, etc…
Flood Safety Messages • Turn Around Don’t Drown. • Have a Plan, Lessen Your Loss. • Monitor the NOAA Weather Radio, or your favorite news source for vital weather related information. • Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize flood dangers. • Monitor http://water.weather.gov for your river forecast. Look for frequent updates. Realize the uncertainty in river forecasts.
Need more info? • Contact your local NWS Weather Forecast Office • Binghamton, NY http://weather.gov/bgm • Blacksburg, VA http://weather.gov/rnk • Mt Holly, NJ http://weather.gov/phi • State College, PA http://weather.gov/ctp • New York City, NY http://weather.gov/okx • Sterling, VA http://weather.gov/lwx • Wakefield, VA http://weather.gov/akq • Email: firstname.lastname@example.org
Find MARFC Online at: • Homepage: http://weather.gov/marfc (our website is having technical problems today, if this site isn’t working go to the AHPS pages to get our latest forecasts: http://water.weather.gov • Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.MARFC.gov • Twitter @NWSMARFC • Hashtags: #NJWX, #DEWX, #MDWX, #PAWX, #VAWX, #NYWX, #WVWX
Next MARFC Briefing • As needed Sunday/Monday, March 30-31