Industry analysis • The goal of our industry analysis is to: • predict which industry is rising and which is declining, earlier than other investment professionals. • Sort out winners and losers for that industry
Application of Industry Analysis-Smart phone industry (the holy grail of high tech) • The demand for converged pocket device: limited pocket size creates the demand for one device with multiple functions rather than multiple devices with one function each. • Family Doc vs. Specialist; • Wal-Mart vs. Toy US • When separate functions actually help each other, a converged device is better than stand-alone devices • Camera +email ; organizer +phone ; GPS+search ; PSP+ internet connection=peer to peer game
Smart Phone Industry • Functions • Phone • Entertainment • Games, Music, Video • Internet/information • Emails, Web, Stocks, weather • Location: GPS • Organizer • Portable makes it more powerful that PC • To do list, iTV
Smart Phone Industry • Supply: Technology advancement makes it possible to build such a device that excels in several functions as good as stand alone device • The implication: stand-alone devices get killed gradually • PDA-- died • GPS--dying • MP3 Player-will die • Handheld game console
Smart Phone Industry • The Trend: • Smart phone will grow 3 times faster than cell phone industry • represent 25-30% of cell phone sales in 2013, and 40-50% in US • Quick survey • Smart phone ownership • Now • 1 year ago • Plan to buy in the future, why?
PC industry • The drama and timeline of the industry • Micro processor and Intl • Display, keyboard and Apple • IBM • Operating system and Microsoft • GUI (graphic user interface) and Macintosh • Windows and PCs • Current state of the industry • The players • The trend: cloud computing, mobile computing • Slow growth and longer upgrade circle
TV industry • Content owner/provider (entertainment-diversified) • Old Distribution channel • Cable • TWC, Comcast • Satellite • DTV, Dish • New channels-Internet • Netflix, Apple, Google • Tech support • Akamai
Content owner • players: CBS, Time Warner, Disney • Business model: Ad sponsored • Ad spending is highly correlated with overall economy • The trend • Declining view • New precise ad model