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Did You Believe Us in 2011 & 2012 ? What we think for 2013

Y. Did You Believe Us in 2011 & 2012 ? What we think for 2013. “Keeping Clients & Investors Ahead of the Market” . January 29, 2013. Dennis P. Yeskey Managing Partner/Founder dennis@yeskeyrealestate.com. Peter Culliney Research/Data Presentation pete@checkresearch.info. The Compromise….

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Did You Believe Us in 2011 & 2012 ? What we think for 2013

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  1. Y Did You Believe Us in 2011 & 2012 ? What we think for 2013 “Keeping Clients & Investors Ahead of the Market” January 29, 2013 Dennis P. Yeskey Managing Partner/Founder dennis@yeskeyrealestate.com Peter Culliney Research/Data Presentation pete@checkresearch.info

  2. The Compromise…. Introduction www.yeskeyrealestate.com

  3. Outline • Summary 2013 • Predictions - 2011, 2012, 2013 • Top Ten Issues – 2012, 2013 • Some Interesting Misc. Exhibits www.yeskeyrealestate.com

  4. Top Ten Issues Summary - Top Ten Issues 2013 Economy & Residential: “Back at No. 1” ----------------------–Now is the time for REAL economic growth. Business Investment: “Geared toward domestic employment growth” Tax Reform: “Shifting out of neutral” Capital Markets & Alternatives: “CRE outpaces alternatives” Government Intervention: “Regulatory momentum but no spike” www.yeskeyrealestate.com

  5. Top Ten Issues Summary - Top Ten Issues 2013 2013 Economy Business Investment & Exports Tax Reform 2012 • Government Intervention • Rules & Regulations • Economy www.yeskeyrealestate.com

  6. Top Ten Issues Summary - Top Ten Issues 2013 Global: “We are not globalizing, we are already global.” Banks & Regulatory: “Keep it in Drive; no time for coasting” Traditional CRE Fundamentals: “This is a healthy recovery for CRE.” -----------------------------------A slow steady climb CRE Debt including CMBS: “Activity picking up but not booming.” CRE Equity including REITs: “CRE remains among the best” -----------------------------------Global REITs www.yeskeyrealestate.com

  7. Predictions • Economy • Capital Markets • Alternatives • Commercial Real Estate www.yeskeyrealestate.com

  8. Predictions – Economy Predictions Source: Yeskey Real Estate

  9. Predictions – Economy Predictions Source: Yeskey Real Estate

  10. Predictions – Commercial Real Estate Predictions Source: Yeskey Real Estate

  11. Top Ten Issues www.yeskeyrealestate.com

  12. Top Ten Issues Top Ten CRE Issues 2012 Govt. Intervention Rules & Regulations Economy/Residential Capital Markets Alternative Investments Fundamentals Equity REITs Debt Markets CMBS Debt Winner! www.yeskeyrealestate.com

  13. Top Ten Issues Top Ten CRE Issues 2013 New & Improved Economy & Residential Business Investment & Exports Tax Reform Capital Markets & Alternative Investments Government Intervention Global Banks & Regulatory Traditional CRE Fundamentals CRE Debt Including CMBS CRE Equity including REITs www.yeskeyrealestate.com

  14. Some Interesting Misc. Exhibits www.yeskeyrealestate.com

  15. No Surprise The Economy – Performing as predicted (mature 1-2%) within a global slow down. Update October 15 - A growing trend -- Unhealthy and unsustainable consumer spending above 70% of GDP. Most importantly, business Investment is just too low particularly to encourage domestic employment and exporting. Historically, Government spending appears to be on track considering the last 40 years. A new grand strategy is needed to drive future growth. Issue 1 - Economy Fall 2012 Surprises…. Executive Summary Table Source: BEA, Dow Jones, ^Price Only Returns *end of 2011/**end of 2012 / *** till 1/28/13 www.yeskeyrealestate.com

  16. “It’s The Economy” Issue 1 – Economy Unemployment Trend By Presidential Administration - From Month of Inauguration Forward History suggests that incumbents who presided over rising unemployment at the end of their first terms (Carter, GHW Bush) were not re-elected, while those presiding over lowering unemployment rates (Reagan, Clinton, GW Bush, Obama) won re-election. % Source: BLS www.yeskeyrealestate.com

  17. Long-term budget picture remains troubling Source: Deloitte via CBO, The Long-Term Budget Outlook, Extended Alternative Fiscal Scenario (June 2012); Tax Policy Center, Federal Revenues and Outlays under Various Scenarios, 2012-2022 www.yeskeyrealestate.com

  18. Dividends Drive Success in 2012 Issue 4 – Capital Markets and Alternatives Comparative Returns for 2012 Sources: Yahoo finance, gold.com – Price Only Returns www.yeskeyrealestate.com

  19. Transactions by Property Type – Including Hotels Issue 8 – Traditional CRE Source: Real Capital Analytics Data till end of 2012; as of 1/22/13; additional data will be aggregated in end of year reporting. www.yeskeyrealestate.com

  20. Issue 10 – REITs Real Estate Investment Trusts – The Long Run % Source: NAREIT www.yeskeyrealestate.com

  21. Red Zone … Green Zone…1.2.3. Issue 10 – Equity Avg. Cap Rate Spreads To 10-Year Treasury Yield Green Zone: Red Zone: Chart Source: RCA www.yeskeyrealestate.com

  22. Y YeskeyReal Estate Consulting and Investments www.YeskeyRealEstate.com www.yeskeyrealestate.com

  23. Dennis Yeskey Managing Partner, Founder +1.203.832.7197dennis@yeskeyrealestate.com Dennis most recently served as National Director of the Real Estate Capital Markets practice for Deloitte & Touche. He also built the New York-based Real Estate Services practice from the bottom up and was the Group Managing Partner for Investment Services, which included real estate, investment companies, PEI firms, hedge funds and insurance companies. While under his leadership, these practices achieved an annual growth of more than 25% with a staff of more than 1000 professionals. Prior to Deloitte, from the mid-1980s to the mid-1990s, Dennis developed and led a successful real estate practice as a partner at Kenneth Leventhal & Company, the premier real estate restructuring firm in the United States at the time. He began his career at A.T. Kearney and PricewaterhouseCoopers, along with working at two engineering firms which specialized in solving difficult design and construction issues. His financial advisory clients include Apollo, The Blackstone Group, Goldman Sachs, O’Connor Capital Partners, GE Capital, Starwood Capital, TIAA-CREF, New York Life, Turner Construction, and the New York Common Fund as well as investors such as JMB, VMS, Bank of Tokyo, Brookfield, Confederation Life, Deutsche Bank, ING, KKR, Lazard Freres, Lehman Brothers, Lend Lease, Morgan Stanley, The Paramount Group, Sentinel, and Malkin Properties. Over the course of his distinguished 40-year career, Dennis has been involved in dozens of high-profile workouts, restructurings, and reorganizations, including Travelers Life Insurance Company, Rockefeller Center, Mutual Benefit, Prudential Financial, DeBartolo, Bally’s, The Trump Organization, Olympia & York (O&Y), Wheeling Pittsburgh Steel Corporation, E-II Holdings, and Mellon Bank.  He has also worked with several government agencies in dealing with troubled assets, such as the US Resolution Trust Corporation, the FDIC, and the US Post Office, as well as with Japanese and UK government entities as well. Dennis holds an MBA in finance from Columbia University. He also holds both bachelor’s and master’s degrees in civil engineering from the University of Pittsburgh’s Swanson School of Engineering. He is an active member of The Real Estate Roundtable, the Pension Real Estate Association, the Urban Land Institute, for which he became ULI Foundation Governor in 2008, along with the Lincoln Center Real Estate Council. He is a sought-out speaker for industry events and is frequently quoted as an authority in the general business and real estate media. Supporting this role, he continues to perform leading edge research in the capital markets arena. www.yeskeyrealestate.com

  24. Peter Culliney Research/Data Presentation pete@checkresearch.info Peter Culliney Pete Culliney has over 20 years experience making better information easier to use for colleagues and clients by developing new products while enhancing and expanding services that help smooth the transition from data to knowledge. Prior to his work with Yeskey Real Estate, Pete was with Real Capital Analytics, where he led the research teams that expanded that firms research scope from covering the US to covering the world and from tracking just buy/sell transactions to tracking troubled assets as well as laying the groundwork for covering CRE debt markets. In addition to his work in real estate and capital markets, early in his career Pete worked extensively in the insurance, technology and communications fields. A librarian by training, Pete knows the primary goal is to try to understand as fully as possible what the client wishes to learn from the project, what new knowledge is sought and how clients hope to use this knowledge. We then seek out the data and information needed to achieve those aims, organize it and consolidate it in ways that best meet the needs and aims of individual clients. About Check : Research Check : Research & Analysis is a custom research shop dedicated to bringing thoughtful analysis of marketplace trends to clients across a wide scope of industries. From answering quick questions for executives looking for just the right bit of information to full blown analytical reports and custom studies. To find out more, visit www.checkresearch.info www.yeskeyrealestate.com

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