Strategies for Winning General Elections: Understanding the Impact of Median Voter Theorem and Campaign Finance Laws

1. Winning the General Election

2. Anthony Downs • Median Voter Theorem

3. Median Voter Theorem • Assumptions: • Single dimensional issue space • Pairwise vote • Voters always vote (no abstentions) • Voters have one unique preferred position • Voters’ preferences “single peaked” • Parties/candidates maximize chances of winning • Preferences are normally distributed in electorate

4. Median Voter Theorem • If all voters vote and their preferences are single-peaked and on a single dimension, then the median ideal preference can defeat all other positions in a pairwise vote.

5. Questions • What are the incentives for general election candidates given MVT? • How will candidate behavior change if you substitute a skewed or polarized electorate for a normally distributed one?

6. Critiques of MVT?Usefulness of MVT?

7. Changes in the campaign environment • Professionalization • Specialization • Computerization • Polling • Communications technology

8. What role do parties play in these campaigns? • Candidates hire partisan professionals to run campaigns • In most races, the candidate is on her own • In competitive races, the party can spend a lot of money • not always the way the candidate would like • Campaign finance laws favor candidate-centered system

9. Campaign Finance Restrictions on party spending • Contributions to candidates • Coordinated spending with candidate • Independent expenditures in favor of candidate • Voter mobilization

10. Limits on party spending

11. Limits on how parties can raise money • National party committees can receive • $15,000 from PACs per calendar year • $25,000 from individuals per calendar year • State party committees (that deal with federal elections) can receive • $10,000 from an individual • Party units can transfer unlimited amounts between themselves

12. Soft Money • Unregulated contributions TO state parties • State parties used to be able to use soft money for “party building” activities for federal elections • “Issue ads” allowed • What was so bad? • federal candidates helped raise it • issue ads advocated for candidates

13. McCain-FeingoldBipartisan Campaign Reform Act • National parties can only raise money in regulated amounts (Hard money) • State parties have to fund activities related to federal elections with hard money (mostly) • All “electioneering communications” aired within 60 days of a federal election (or 30 days of a caucus/primary/convention) must be paid for with “hard” money • Parties can’t make both coordinated and independent expenditures. Have to choose.

14. Effects of McCain-Feingold (BCRA) • Strange bedfellows in debate • Raises the importance of hard money

15. Advantages of BCRA, 2004?

16. Soft money

17. Hard money

18. Effects of reforms on parties? • Reduce importance to candidates • 527 organizations

19. Top Ten Democratic 527s in 2004

20. Top Ten Republican 527s, 2004

21. Citizens United vs. Federal Election Commission