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2012 General Election. What Happened? Prepared for MAHP November 15, 2012. 1992 – 2012 Composition Of The Electorate (based on exit polling). White. Age 18-29. Black. Hispanic. 1992 – 2012 Composition Of Partisan Presidential Vote, By Ethnicity. Asian. Asian. Hispanic. Hispanic.

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2012 general election

2012 General Election

What Happened?

Prepared for MAHP

November 15, 2012

1992 2012 composition of the electorate based on exit polling
1992 – 2012 Composition Of The Electorate(based on exit polling)


Age 18-29



1992 2012 composition of partisan presidential vote by ethnicity
1992 – 2012 Composition Of Partisan Presidential Vote, By Ethnicity









Six keys to the 2012 presidential
Six Keys To The 2012 Presidential Ethnicity

  • Tax Policy

  • George W. Bush

  • Empathy

  • Health Care Reform

  • Hurricane Sandy

  • Voter Suppression Efforts

2012 Turnout Appears To Be Down From 2008, With Significant Variation By State (based on AP reporting as of Tuesday Nov. 13, 2012)

Turnout Increases: Top 10 States

Turnout Decreases: Top 10 States

2008 Total Votes: 129,449,593

2012 Total Votes: 121,190,681

Change: - 4.5%

*Competitive Senate race

Unsurprisingly, The Economy Was Viewed As The Most Important Issue Facing The Country On Election Day

Which ONE of these four issues is the most important facing the country? (CHECK ONLY ONE)

Support among those indicating issue as the most important

The economy

Health care

Federal budget deficit

Foreign policy

Evaluations of the economy remain dismal but are notably better than 4 years ago
Evaluations Of The Economy Remain Dismal, But Are Notably Better Than 4 Years Ago

Do you think the condition of the nation’s economy is: excellent , good, not so good, or poor?

Most voters still blame george w bush for economic problems
Most Voters Still Blame George W. Bush For Better Than 4 Years AgoEconomic Problems

Who is more to blame for current economic problems?

Not sure 9%





6 in 10 voters favor higher tax rates for those earning over 250 000
6-in-10 Voters Favor Higher Tax Rates For Those Earning Over $250,000

Should income tax rates: increase for all, increase only on income over $250,000, or not increase for anyone?

Not sure 5%

Not increase for anyone


Obama dominated vote among those most interested in a caring president
Obama Dominated Vote Among Those Most Interested In A $250,000Caring President

Which ONE of these four candidate qualities mattered most in deciding how you voted for president? (CHECK ONLY ONE)

Support among line-item


Has a vision for the future

Shares my values

Cares about people like me

Among Blacks: 38%

Among Hispanics: 28%

Is a strong leader

Majority of Voters Think Obama Is More In Touch With People Like Them, Especially Young, Non-White Voters

Who is more in touch with people like you?

Not sure 4%





Deep Divisions Persist On Health Care Law, But Only One-Quarter Of Voters Supported Romney’s Position To Repeal It

What should happen to the 2010 health care law?

Support among line-item


Expand it

Leave it as is

Repeal some of it

Repeal all of it

Obama edged romney among late deciding voters
Obama Edged Romney Among Late Deciding Voters One-Quarter Of Voters Supported Romney’s Position To Repeal It

When did you finally decide for whom to vote in the presidential election?

Support among line-item


Just today / In the last few days

In October

In September

Before that

Hurricane sandy appears to have moved some voters to obama
Hurricane Sandy Appears To Have Moved Some Voters To Obama One-Quarter Of Voters Supported Romney’s Position To Repeal It

In your vote for president, how would you rate the importance of Obama’s hurricane response?

Support among line-item


The most important factor

An important factor

A minor factor

Not a factor at all

Massachusetts senate race
Massachusetts Senate Race One-Quarter Of Voters Supported Romney’s Position To Repeal It

Massachusetts senate race results
Massachusetts Senate Race Results One-Quarter Of Voters Supported Romney’s Position To Repeal It

Brown margin by county
Brown Margin, by County One-Quarter Of Voters Supported Romney’s Position To Repeal It

Turnout analysis
Turnout Analysis One-Quarter Of Voters Supported Romney’s Position To Repeal It

Counties won by Brown in 2010

Brown viewed more favorably than warren among election day voters
Brown Viewed More Favorably Than Warren Among Election Day Voters

Is your opinion of (candidate): favorable or unfavorable?

Thank you
Thank you! Voters

Chris Anderson


[email protected]

Anderson Robbins Research

6 Beacon Street, suite 720

Boston, MA 02108