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THORPEX-Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC) and Tropical Cyclone Structure-08 Experiment (TCS-08). Driftsonde center,. Okinawa. Japan. Operations center , NPS, Monterey, CA. Aircraft locations, and aircraft operations centers. Taiwan. Driftsonde Balloon release, Hawaii. Guam.

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slide1

THORPEX-Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC)

and

Tropical Cyclone Structure-08 Experiment (TCS-08)

Driftsonde center,

Okinawa

Japan

Operations center,

NPS, Monterey, CA

Aircraft

locations, and

aircraft operations centers

Taiwan

Driftsonde Balloon release,

Hawaii

Guam

  • 9 participating nations
    • Canada, China, U.K., France, Germany, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, United States
  • Over 500 aircraft mission flight hours
    • 216 C-130, 179 P-3, 83 Falcon, 37 DOTSTAR
  • 76 missions
    • 25 Falcon, 23 C-130, 21 P-3, 7 DOTSTAR
  • 7 airfields
    • Andersen AFB, Guam; NAF Atsugi, Japan; Kadena AFB, Okinawa, Japan; Taiwan, Yokota AFB, Japan; MCAS Iwakuni, Japan; Misawa AB, Japan
  • 11 tropical circulation systems
    • 4 typhoons, 1 TD, 1 ex-TS, 5 others
slide3

Extratropical Transition

Downstream Impacts

TC Intensification. structure change, track uncertainty

Recurvature, initiation of ET

Formation

Large-scale circulation,

deep convection, monsoon depressions, tropical waves,

TC formation

slide4

Experiments to study TC rapid intensification and concentric eye-wall cycles by C. C. Wu utilizing aircraft observations during the pre-recurvature period of TY Sinlaku

slide7

Weissmann et al. Mon. Wea. Rev. 2010

Differences in 72-h DROP and NODROP track forecast errors

Forecast degradation after recurvature

Recurvature

time

Sinlaku

Jangmi

slide8

Average track improvement (km) after assimilation of dropwindsonde data into the NCEP/GFS model during the 6-120-h forecast periods

Recurvature

time

Chou et al. Mon. Wea. Rev. 2011

slide9

NCEP/GFS Sinlaku

No Drops

NCEP/GFS Sinlaku

Drops

NCEP/GFS Sinlaku

Difference

Drops

Inclusion of dropwindsondes lead to and

improvement in initial storm structure and better

track forecast due to improved steering flow

Best track RMW

Wu et al. Mon. Wea. Rev. 2012

slide10

TY Sinlaku: 1200 UTC 10 September – 0000 UTC 21 September

21

20

19

1200 UTC

15 SEP

18

16

17

DLR FALCON

WC-130J, NRL P-3

WC-130J, NRL P-3, DLR Falcon

15

WC-130J, NRL P-3, DLR Falcon

WC-130J, NRL P-3, DLR Falcon

DOTSTAR,

DLR FALCON

Transformation

Stages

Re-intensification

as a typhoon

Extratropical

Stage

  • Impacts and Processes associated with the Extratropical Transition of TY Sinlaku
    • Uncertainty in downstream development
    • Utility of aircraft data in identifying important structural characteristics
slide11

ECMWF/UKMO Ensemble track predictions for TY Sinlaku prior

to recurvature

Forecasts obtained from the THORPEX Interactive Global Grand Ensemble (TIGGE) database

slide12

ECMWF/UKMO Ensemble track predictions for TY Sinlaku

following recurvature

Forecasts obtained from the THORPEX Interactive Global Grand Ensemble (TIGGE) database

ecmwf forecast experiments conducted by martin weissmann
ECMWF Forecast Experiments conducted by Martin Weissmann
  • ECMWF IFS with and without T-PARC data
    • Discussed in Weissmann et al. 2011 with respect to forecast track improvement
    • ~25 km, 91 levels
    • 4D-Var data assimilation with 09-21 UTC and 21-09 UTC data windows
    • Cycled
    • Forecasts initialized at 0000 UTC and 1200 UTC
  • Observations not included:
    • Dropwindsondes
    • Driftsondes
    • JMA Ship SYNOP and Rawindsondes
  • “Drops” experiment
    • First guess check relaxed to 40oN
    • Only a few dropwindsondes in the inner core of Sinlaku on 18 September were flagged.
slide16

Standard deviation of 500 hPa among ensemble members averaged between 40o-60oN

Black dots = location of Sinlaku and ex-Sinlaku in individual members

Red dot = location at time of Extratropical Transition

1200 UTC 15 SEP

TIGGE

Julia Keller, KIT, Karlsruhe, Germany

slide17

Use of TIGGE to examine the ability of ensemble systems to represent forecast scenarios as defined by a fuzzy cluster analysis of the large-scale upper-level flow patterns associated with TY Sinlaku and Jangmi during T-PARC

Keller et al 2011 (GRL)

slide18

Post Recurvature Structure Change and Re-intensification

  • Synoptic-scale processes facilitated the re-invigoration of deep convection
  • Mesoscale and convective-scale processes contributed to an increase in the vorticity of the TC, which resulted in the re-intensification of Sinlaku.
    • Interactions between the tilted TC vortex and multiple mesoscale circulations
    • The re-intensification of Sinlaku continued as multiple episodes of deep convection rotated cyclonically around and inward toward the TC center.

21

20

19

Typhoon Sinlaku

07-22 September 2008

18

16

DLR FALCON

17

WC-130J, NRL P-3

Re-intensification

17-18 September 2008

WC-130J, NRL P-3, DLR Falcon

15

WC-130J, NRL P-3, DLR Falcon

18 Sep / 0200 UTC

17 Sep / 0200 UTC

16 Sep / 1800 UTC

WC-130J, NRL P-3, DLR Falcon

DOTSTAR,

DLR FALCON

slide19

Sinlaku CC / Convective Towers (>14 km)

    • Deep convection
    • Reflectivity
      • Multiple towers with reflectivity > 35 dBZ at 12 km
      • Base of reflectivity in the tower region increases to the east
    • Vorticity
      • Deep towers of positive vorticity coincident with towers of high reflectivity; maximum between 10-12 km
      • Maxima associated with the Sinlaku LLCC tilts eastward with height into western tower of positive vorticity
    • Vertical Motion
      • ~30 m s-1
      • Maximum between 10-12 km
    • Convergence into the column through 10 km; divergence at upper-levels

W

E

slide20

TY Sinlaku: 1200 UTC 10 September – 0000 UTC 21 September

21

20

19

18

16

17

DLR FALCON

WC-130J, NRL P-3

WC-130J, NRL P-3, DLR Falcon

15

WC-130J, NRL P-3, DLR Falcon

WC-130J, NRL P-3, DLR Falcon

DOTSTAR,

DLR FALCON

Transformation

Stages

Re-intensification

as a typhoon

Extratropical

Stage

  • Impacts and Processes associated with the Extratropical Transition of TY Sinlaku
    • Uncertainty in downstream development
    • Utility of aircraft data in identifying important structural characteristics
slide21

NE

NW

SE

SW

7.5 m s-1 shear from the WSW

ELDORA reflectivity and horizontal winds as defined by the SAMURAI analysis package developed by Michael Bell.

TC Structural characteristics are related to the forcing due to westerly vertical wind shear

Annette Forster, KIT, Karlsruhe, Germany

slide23

Final Stage of Extratropical Transition

TY Sinlaku: 1200 UTC 10 September – 0000 UTC 21 September

21

20

19

18

16

17

DLR FALCON

WC-130J, NRL P-3

WC-130J, NRL P-3, DLR Falcon

15

WC-130J, NRL P-3, DLR Falcon

WC-130J, NRL P-3, DLR Falcon

DOTSTAR,

DLR FALCON

Transformation

Stages

Re-intensification

as a typhoon

Extratropical

Stage

  • Impacts and Processes associated with the Extratropical Transition of TY Sinlaku
    • Uncertainty in downstream development
    • Utility of aircraft data in identifying important structural characteristics
slide24

Analysis of aircraft dropwindsonde data, satellite winds, and ELDORA winds with the background field defined by the ECMWF analysis as obtained from the YOTC database

Julian Quinting, KIT, Karlsruhe, Germany

slide25

South North South North

Convective region (x = 125 km)

ELDORA Reflectivity with SAMURAI

in-plane and vertical winds

SAMURAI in-plane and vertical winds and moist static energy

Julian Quinting, KIT, Karlsruhe, Germany

slide26

South North South North

ECMWF

Samurai

Convective region (x = 125 km)

ELDORA Reflectivity with SAMURAI

in-plane and vertical winds

SAMURAI in-plane and vertical winds and moist static energy

Julian Quinting, KIT, Karlsruhe, Germany

summary and outlook
Summary and Outlook
  • Successful field campaign
    • Design
    • Execution
    • Data processing – QC
    • Distributed Data Archive (http://data.eol.ucar.edu/master_list/?project=T-PARC)
  • Initial Results
    • Concentrated on results of targeted data experiments
    • Data denial experiments
      • Improved forecast tracks during pre-recurvature periods
      • Forecast improvements are sensitive to the type of aircraft observations (i.e., inner core, near-storm environment, remote sensitive area
      • Forecast improvements are sensitive to the type of measurement (i.e., dropwindsonde, Doppler wind lidar).
      • Most recent results are examining the relative impacts of targeted satellite data
  • Meetings
    • International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (ITWC) March 2010
    • AMS 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
    • International Workshop on Extratropical Transition (IWET) May 2012
summary and outlook1
Summary and Outlook
  • Process studies
    • Tropical cyclone structure and intensity changes
    • Interaction with YOTC and TIGGE
      • Physical processes
      • Forecast Verification
    • Extratropical Transition
      • Predictability of downstream impacts
      • New data sets providing detailed examination of structural characteristics.
      • Identification of the evolution to an extratropical cyclone
  • Outlook
    • Link detailed observations of post recurvature structure to impacts on the predictability associated with downstream impacts and development of the extratropical cyclone.
    • Examination of structure and intensity changes
    • Relative roles of satellite and in situ observations relative to improved track forecasts.