Download
slide1 n.
Skip this Video
Loading SlideShow in 5 Seconds..
Dennis Roberson SVP – CTO PowerPoint Presentation
Download Presentation
Dennis Roberson SVP – CTO

Dennis Roberson SVP – CTO

98 Views Download Presentation
Download Presentation

Dennis Roberson SVP – CTO

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript

  1. 3G and Hot Spot Networking Dennis Roberson SVP – CTO

  2. World Market Trend (circ fall 2000) 1 Billion + Subscribers “WIRELESS INTERNET” 580 Million Subscribers Market Size 1 Billion Subscribers WIRELESS INTERNET 380 Million Subscribers 2000 2004 Source: Commerce Net Research, NUA.NET, Motorola

  3. Advertising in The Economist

  4. Wireless Will Surpass Wired Access Wireless Voice Wired Voice Wired Internet Wireless Internet *Estimate Source: Salomon Smith Barney, Motorola Estimates.

  5. 2,000 3G 1,500 Cumulative Subscribers (Millions) 1,000 2.5G 500 2G 2G 1G 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Source: Motorola Forecast Worldwide Cumulative Subscribers

  6. New devices are being introduced Enhanced Devices Voice/Data/Image/Video Voice Voice/Data 3G Candybar Voice, Data, Video 3G Candybar Voice, Data 3G Clam Voice iMode Voice, Data 3G Clam Voice, Data 2-Way Communicator Data/voice 3G Candybar Voice Card Phone PDA/PHS Data, Voice Electronic Wallet Mini Computer Data Embedded Data Data/Voice

  7. Wireless bandwidth isincreasing... 4G Shared Environments 3.5G Mobile Television Video On Demand 3G Video Streaming Increasing Value 2.5G Still Imaging Mobile Video Conferencing Audio Streaming 2G E-Commerce Mobile Radio Text Messaging Voice E-mail Data Transmission Speed - kbps 9.6 32 64 128 144 384 2,000 20->200K

  8. Technology Evolution

  9. Remote Medical Service (image) Video Conference (High quality) Video on Demand: Sports, News Weather Video Conference (Lower quality) Mobile TV Image Viideo Surveillance, Video Mail, Travel Electronic Newspaper Voice Mail Karaoke Electronic Publishing Mobile Radio Fax E-Mail Audio Data Telephone (Voice) Weather, Traffic, News, Sports, Stock updates Voice-driven Web Pages Streaming Audio The Promise of 3G Video Streaming 2,000 1G 2G 3G Still Imaging 384 Audio Streaming 144 Text Messaging 128 Data Transmission Speed - k bps Voice 64 JPEG Still Photos E-Commerce 32 9.6 0

  10. Technology Data Rates Video Streaming 2,000 1G 2G 3G WCDMA Still Imaging 384 EDGE Audio Streaming 144 cdma2000 Text Messaging 128 Data Transmission Speed - k bps GPRS Voice 64 32 GSM, IS-136, IS-95A 9.6 0

  11. User Peak Data Rate

  12. What has happened to 3G Expectations? Expectations For Early 3G Deployment Slippage Of commercial GPRS Limited WAP Success Industry Financial Impact High Italian + Swiss Auction Failures Bumper German Licensing Bumper UK Licensing Terminal Restrictions Spain Licensing With early TTM Huge New Entrant Interest Low Jan Jul Dec 2000

  13. Evolution driven by… Demand Data Efficiency / Capacity Spectrum Cost Voice Capacity Equipment Cost Availability

  14. 3G Challenges… Demand Spectrum Cost Data Efficiency Voice Capacity Equipment Cost Availability

  15. 2G Cellular Volume Deterioration Shipments [Millions]

  16. Cellular Subscriber Growth Estimates China USA Japan Germany Italy / UK India

  17. 3G Spectrum Costs Baskerville Forecast: Q200 Estimated Cost per Licence in $Bn Raised Half Of expectations Raised only 20% Of expectations Postponed Because of lack of interest Raised only 33% of Expectations Beauty Contest Auction = Already Issued Before Forecast Hybrid Actual Raised

  18. 3G Spectrum Availability MSS MSS* MSS MSS* MSS MSS A D B E F C A D B E F C 3G 3G * Region 2 ITU 1885 1930 1980 2010 2025 2110 2120 2170 2200 3G 3G PHS Japan 1885 1895 1918.1 1980 2010 2025 2110 2170 2200 3G 3G DCS 1800 DCS 1800 DECT MSS MSS Europe 1710 1785 1805 1880 1900 1996 2010 2025 2110 2186 2200 3G 3G MSS MSS China 1885 2025 2110 2200 Broadcast Auxiliary PCS PCS Unl. PCS Reserve USA 1850 1910 1930 1990 2110 2150 2200 All Frequencies in MHz

  19. 3G - Operator Slippages Original PlanLatest PlanSlippagePublicly announced reason Vodafone UK Nov-01 Nov-02 12-16 months Handsets SK Telecom May-02 May-03 12 months Handsets, infrastructure Telefonica Aug-01 Jul-02 11 months Licensing relaxation Japan Telecom Nov-01 Oct-02 8-11 months Gain 3GPP standards BT Cellnet Dec-01 Sep-02 10 months Infrastructure France Telecom Feb-02 H2-02 5-10 months Handsets NTT May-01 Oct-01* 6 months Handsets, software, interference 2001 2002 2003 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Vodafone UK Nov Nov SK Telecom May May Telefonica Aug July Japan Telecom Nov Oct BT Cellnet Dec Sep France Telecom Feb Sep/Oct NTT Oct* Planned Launch Revised Launch Delay in Roll Out

  20. Bandwidths Trends Compared(early adopters, highest bandwidths) Internet Backbone Home/WAN Office LAN bps WLAN Personal Wireless

  21. Bandwidth Trends - Personal Wireless (Mobile/Portable) 4G 3.5G bps 3G GPRS 2G

  22. Wireless Data Trends Wide Area B’tooth/802.15.3 HiperLAN2 Median2 IEEE 802.11 1000000 100000 WLAN (~Fixed) PAN (Nomadic) 10000 Max Data Rate (Kbps) W-CDMA 1000 WAN (Fully Mobile) EDGE 100 GPRS HSCD 10 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Year

  23. Key WLAN / PAN Radio Technologies 802.11b 802.11a or HiperLAN2 Products: Vertical Driver: Competition Enterprise Broadband Home Nomadic Speed: 11 - 22Mbps Technology: 2.4GHz, DSS Speed: 22 - 100Mbps Technology: 5.XGHz, OFDM HomeRF HomeRF2 or 802.11a/e or HL2 Products: Set-top box, etc Driver: Reduce setup costs new markets/services Speed: 1.1 Mbps Technology: 2.4GHz, FH Speed: 10 - 22 – 54 Mbps Technology: 5.XGHz, OFDM Bluetooth/802.15.1 Bluetooth2 802.15.3 Products: Cell-phones, etc Driver: Competition, new markets & products Speed: 20+ Mbps Technology: 2.4 GHz Strategy: Transistion to 5GHz WPAN; UWB Speed: 700Kbps Technology: 2.4GHz, FH Speed: 2-10 Mbps Technology: 2.4GHz FH 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 All Speeds at RAW bandwidth. Delivered payload varies *Hotspots may use Enterprise or Nomadic technologies

  24. Broadband “Island” Scenario Greater Washington DC Area Wide Area coverage Provided by 2G Carriers Mall area coverage provided by Verizon 2.5G GPRS Broadband 802.11x Broadband 802.11x Broadband 802.11x Requires a new billing model Pentagon, coverage provided by “US Military Telecom” Reagan Airport, coverage provided by 3rd Party Vendor Requires a multi-mode device (GPRS and 802.11) slide courtesy of Les Eastwood

  25. R Campus Enterprise Wireless Mobility Model Level 3 - Regional Low Speed Wireless (56Kbps) Level 1 - Personal Area Network (.5-10Mbps) Level 2 - Campus High Speed Wireless LANs (100Mbps)

  26. WLANs and PANs Enhance Cellular (and Could Threaten 3G) • Timeliness: 11Mbps available now • Low Cost for Operator/Owner and User • Free Spectrum: 300-500MHz of unlicensed spectrum • Low equipment cost • Enables low cost/flat fee Wireless to consumer • Superior End User Experience • 54Mb/s vs. 1-2Mb/s • All existing and future Internet applications already work slide courtesy of Les Eastwood

  27. WLAN & Cellular Convergence Is there opportunity here? Cellular Today WLAN Today Low Data Rate – Wide Coverage High Speed – Point Coverage Internet Local Access & Control Data Only No Roaming Private Network Slow Data Rates Global Roaming High Speed Mobility Technologies Geared toward Data in the Enterprise Technologies Geared toward Consumer Voice and Data Wireless

  28. Integrate Cellular with WLAN iMGW Platform • Common Features/Capabilities • Authentication • Billing • Preferences/Call Control • Access Capable (802.11, BT, Cellular) Nomadic Enterprise or Hot Spot Internet Benefits: Local Access, Common Control Data & Voice Point to Point Roaming VPN over Public Network Increasing Data Rates in More Places Seamless Roaming and Billing High Speed Mobility … 802.11 Or Any WLAN Technology Home Technology Tailored for a Seamless Solution

  29. Beyond 3G (B3G) 1980’s 1990’s 2000’s 2010’s 1G 2G 3G 4G WLAN Hotspots • B3G key attributes: • interworking and cooperation between different Radio Networks • user as the focus, opportune delivery of the content/services • multi-mode terminals free to camp on any available network • fully IP based • disruptive technology • potentially complementary to 3G • potentially competitive to 3G UMTS + HiperLAN GPRS +802.11 GPRS +DVB Cellular+ WLAN+ Bdcast

  30. B3G Vision Services Hiperlan2 AP GPRS UMTS Management domain DVB-T Composite Service Delivery management (Billing, …) Ipv6 Backbone(s) Internet IPv4àIPv6 Management Functions Composite Radio Ressource management (Spectrum utilization, links/traffic optimization) Composite Domain Management (mobility, QoS, multicast, AAA) A moving IP- subnet Main Attributes: • Core network IPv6 based • Better support of mobility, security and “unlimited” address space • Wireless access points become IP gateways • Different radio access technologies deployed within a domain • Optimization of the radio resources

  31. 5100 5200 5300 5400 5500 5600 5700 5800 Spectrum Allocation at 5 GHz BRAN/Hiperlan BRAN/Hiperlan 5.15 - 5.35 5.470 - 5.725 License-exempt 455 MHz 200mW 1W Europe MMAC 5.15 - 5.25 Japan 50mW 100 MHz U-NII U-NII Unlicensed 300 MHz 5.15 - 5.35 5.725 -5.825 US 50mW 250mW 1W

  32. WLAN Standards & Technologies 2.4 GHz 4ch. (80MHz) • 11Mbs/channel net bit rate • First on market, market education • Limited in data rate, and capacity (spectrum, interference) 802.11b 5 GHz US: 12 ch. (300MHz) EU: 19 ch. (455MHz) JP: 5 ch. (100MHz) • 54 Mbps/channel net bit rate • Simple and adapted to corporate apps • “Wireless Ethernet", no QoS, limited for multimedia • Future 802.11e, h incl. QoS, DFS+TPC, security, roaming 802.11a • 54 Mbps/channel net bit rate • Multimedia ready (supports QoS, Ethernet, ATM, 1394) • Not widely adopted - pushed by Europe • Better suited to Home & Multimedia applications HiperLAN 2 • 802.11a+e+h ≈ HL2 • Japan is going 11a for Corporate, and HiSWAN (NTT) for Home & Public IEEE802.11a evolutionary approach ↔ HiperLAN2 support of multimedia

  33. Forces affecting the Future of 5 GHz WLAN Economy/Industry Downturn Range Consumer Confusion 22 Mbps 2.4 GHz solutions Technical Challenges Enabling Applications V O L U M E Security Cost 2.4 GHz interference Quality of Service Speed/Media needs Capacity collapse 2.4GHz T I M E

  34. Wireless System Landscape Mobility, Functions High Mobility speech, some data Limited Mobility: Speech, data Fixed Access, High speed data In-Home / In-Building 1G 2G 3G 4G WLAN / PAN 1Kbps 10Kbps 100Kbps 1Mbps 10Mbps 100Mbps Data Rate to the User