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Paul S. and Sarah L. in 1969 Preference reversal studies

Sarah likes “Nifty” experiments. Paul S. and Sarah L. in 1969 Preference reversal studies. A new kind of preference reversal. Based on selective attention being at the core of preference construction processes Using attention manipulations to shape preferences (Peters, in preparation)

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Paul S. and Sarah L. in 1969 Preference reversal studies

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  1. Sarah likes “Nifty” experiments Paul S. and Sarah L. in 1969 Preference reversal studies

  2. A new kind of preference reversal • Based on selective attention being at the core of preference construction processes • Using attention manipulations to shape preferences (Peters, in preparation) • A “mere looking” effect

  3. Attention and the mental number line 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 89 2 Fischer, Castel, Dodd, & Pratt (2003)

  4. Attention and the mental number line 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 89 8 Fischer, Castel, Dodd, & Pratt (2003)

  5. Trial Sequence Initial display: 500 ms 9 Digit at fixation (1, 2, 8, 9): 300 ms Variable delay (50, 100, 200, 300, 400, or 500 ms) Peripheral target PRESS SPACE BAR

  6. Perceiving Numbers Causes Spatial Shifts of Attention • Small number “1”: Faster to detect left than right • Large number “9”: Faster on the right than left • Involuntary activation of a mental number line with mere presence of integers • Interaction between the cognitive systems which control number recognition and visual attention • Creates a subtle shift of attention Fischer, Castel, Dodd, & Pratt (2003)

  7. Might it matter for decision making? • Information accessed earlier, presented earlier, or chosen earlier by the subject appears to have a disproportionate influence on choices • Query Theory (Weber, Johnson, et al., 2007; Johnson, Haubl, & Keinan, 2007) • Information distortion (Russo et al., 2006; DeKay et al., 2009) • If numbers covertly shift attention, might the subsequent “mere look” at information influence decisions? Peters (in preparation)

  8. Study 1: Method – point to your preferred product (real choice; N=44)

  9. Numeric magnitudes shifted attention and biased choice % chose left-side eraser 2(df = 1) = 4.5, p = 0.03

  10. Early attention to an option may have led to more positive evaluations • and therefore preferences of the early-attended object • A mere exposure effect; Zajonc, 1967

  11. Study 2: Choosing a vacation spot (hypothetical choice; internet sample N=192)

  12. When shown a “1”, information order on the right doesn’t matter % chose left-side Spot A interaction Wald 2(df = 1) = 9.1, p = 0.003

  13. “Mere looking” appeared to bias choices based on processingthe first information attended % chose left-side Spot A interaction Wald 2(df = 1) = 9.1, p = 0.003

  14. Using attention to shape processing: Analogy with figure-ground illusions (Tversky & Kahneman, 1981; Einhorn & Hogart, 1981)

  15. Study 3: Description-framing effects (materials from McNeil, Pauker, Sox, & Tversky, 1982) Survival frame: Mortality frame:

  16. Risk of death at treatment looms larger in mortality frame, and surgery is preferred less (McNeil et al., 1982). Survival frame: Mortality frame:

  17. Study 3 methods • Used McNeil et al. materials • Internet sample (N=370) • 12 between-subjects conditions: • 2 description frame (survival/mortality) • X 2 order (radiation/surgery on the left) • X 3 Attention manipulation (‘1’, ‘9’, no integer) • McNeil et al. used the 2 description frames with radiation on the left and no integer • Expressed a preference from 1=“prefer radiation much more” to 6 = “Prefer surgery much more”

  18. Risk of death at treatment looms larger in the mortality frame, and surgery is preferred more in the survival frame (McNeil et al., 1982). 6=prefer surgery 1=prefer radiation

  19. But what if attention alters the “figure-ground”? And whatever is attended first becomes the reference point? Survival frame: Mortality frame:

  20. What if attention alters the “figure-ground”?Attending to radiation first means: Survival frame: 100 compared to 90 and a negative attention frame: Mortality frame: 0 compared to 10 and a negative attention frame

  21. Attention-frame explanation: Negative attention frame is induced, and “10” is perceived as bigger from 0 to 10 than from 100 to 90. 6=prefer surgery 1=prefer radiation

  22. But people read from left to right, and radiation was always on the left. • Let’s try switching the order • What would an attention frame predict?

  23. Surgery still preferred more in the 90-compared-to-100 frame, but this is a positive frame and the effect should be attenuated compared to the negative attention frame Now surgery is on the left Survival frame: 90 compared to 100 and a positive attention frame: Mortality frame: 10 compared to 0 and a positive attention frame

  24. Attention-frame explanation: Reverse the order and the effect is attenuated. 6=prefer surgery 1=prefer radiation

  25. What if you simply direct attention? Survival frame: Mortality frame:

  26. Evidence of an attention frame creating and attenuating McNeil et al.’s results 6=prefer surgery 1=prefer radiation Attended to surgery first Attended to radiation first

  27. Evidence of an attention frame creating and attenuating McNeil et al.’s results 6=prefer surgery 1=prefer radiation Attended to surgery first Attended to radiation first Attention X Description Frame, F(1,366)=12.8, p<.001 In Mortality description, Attention p<.001 In Survival description, Attention ns

  28. Attention, “mere looking,” and the construction of preferences • Evidence for a new kind of preference reversal: Three studies • Real choices among identical erasers • Choices of an enriched vacation spot • Framing effects • Incidental shifts of attention can influence processing and framing of decision options • And, ultimately, the construction of preferences

  29. Thank you, Sarah!

  30. Attention-frame explanation: Reverse the order and the effect is attenuated. 6=prefer surgery 1=prefer radiation

  31. Evidence for incidental attention biasing choices • Activation of a mental number line from mere observation of numbers • This activation influenced, • Attention • AND • Processing of information contiguous with shift • AND • Valuation and choice • Information attended first was processed and had a disproportionate influence on choice

  32. Bounded rationality and the construction of preferences Lichtenstein, S., & Slovic, P. (Eds.)The Construction of Preference. New York: Cambridge University Press.

  33. In the positive-attention frame, first numbers may not discriminate, and decision makers may process further. Survival frame: Mortality frame:

  34. With radiation on the left and a negative attention frame: Number comparisons in the two description frames are always 10 but occur at different points on the number line. And “0 to 10” is a bigger 10 than is “100 to 90” so therefore surgery should be preferred more in survival frame, as McNeil et al. found and I found. Survival frame: Mortality frame:

  35. Studies on framing effects in lung cancer Of 100 people Of 100 people havingradiation: having surgery: Survival Frame all survive tx 90 survive tx 77 survive >1 yr 68 survive > 1 yr 22 survive >5 yr 34 survive >5 yr Mortality Frame none die in tx 10 die in tx 23 die by 1 yr 32 die by 1 yr 78 die by 5 yr 66 die by 5 yr (McNeil, Pauker, Sox, & Tversky, 1982)

  36. Who’s happier?

  37. Losses loom large, and surgery is less attractive in mortality frame than survival frame % chose Surgery (McNeil, Pauker, Sox, & Tversky, 1982)

  38. What if you change the order of the options?

  39. Attention matters Change option order Direct attention

  40. Attention matters Attn directed to radiation Attn directed to surgery

  41. Attention matters Attention directed to surgery Attn directed to radiation

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