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Freshwater flows to bays and estuaries. Paul Montagna George Ward University of Texas at Austin. PROBLEMS. SCIENTIFIC:. WHAT IS THE RELATION BETWEEN INFLOW AND THE ESTUARY ECOSYSTEM?. POLICY:. WHAT ARE THE SOCIETAL TRADE-OFFS BETWEEN POPULATION GROWTH AND ECOSYSTEM MAINTENANCE?.

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slide1

Freshwater flows tobays and estuaries

Paul MontagnaGeorge Ward

University of Texas at Austin

slide2

PROBLEMS

SCIENTIFIC:

WHAT IS THE RELATION BETWEEN INFLOW AND THE ESTUARY ECOSYSTEM?

POLICY:

WHAT ARE THE SOCIETAL TRADE-OFFS BETWEEN POPULATION GROWTH AND ECOSYSTEM MAINTENANCE?

REGULATORY:

HOW DO WE IMPLEMENT THE AGREED POLICY AND ENSURE THAT IT WORKS?

slide3

SCIENCE

E = f(Q)

monitor

Q

(s,t)

POLICY

REGULATORY

slide4

HYDRODYNAMIC TRANSPORT

WATERBORNECONSTITUENTS

BIOLOGICALCOMMUNITIES

(currents, mixing, water depths)

(distribution & abundance of organisms)

(water quality)

CAUSE

EFFECT

slide5

HYDRODYNAMIC TRANSPORT

WATERBORNECONSTITUENTS

BIOLOGICALCOMMUNITIES

(currents, mixing, water depths)

(distribution & abundance of organisms)

(water quality)

WARD

MONTAGNA

slide6

RIVER

ESTUARY

OCEAN

BOUNDARY ZONE

slide7

ESTUARIES

transitional systems, between freshwater and marine

hydrography and chemistry governed by both terrestrial and marine controls

terrestrial controls: freshwater influxes, flooding & inundation, runoff and inflow loads (sediment, nutrients, pollutants), and atmospheric deposition

marine controls: tides, waves, non-astronomical sea-level variations, marine storms, salinity, and littoral sediment influx

predominance of these factors depends upon position in estuary: pronounced environmental gradients

extreme time variability in estuary

slide8

Sabine Lake

Galveston Bay

Matagorda Bay

San Antonio Bay

Aransas-Copano Bays

Corpus Christi Bay

Upper Laguna Madre-Baffin Bay

Lower Laguna Madre

slide9

HYDRODYNAMIC TRANSPORT

WATERBORNECONSTITUENTS

BIOLOGICALCOMMUNITIES

SOLIDS

CURRENTS

HYDRODYNAMIC TRANSPORT

WATERBORNECONSTITUENTS

BIOLOGICALCOMMUNITIES

FLORA

NUTRIENTS

DENSITY

HERBIVORES

SALINITY

MIXING

CARNIVORES

OTHERS

slide10

EXTERNAL (FORCING) VARIABLES

EXTERNAL VARIABLES

HYDRODYNAMIC TRANSPORT

WATERBORNECONSTITUENTS

BIOLOGICALCOMMUNITIES

INTERNAL VARIABLES

SOLIDS

CURRENTS

HYDRODYNAMIC TRANSPORT

WATERBORNECONSTITUENTS

BIOLOGICALCOMMUNITIES

FLORA

NUTRIENTS

DENSITY

HERBIVORES

SALINITY

MIXING

CARNIVORES

OTHERS

slide11

METEOROLOGY

INFLOW

LOADS

INSOLATION

MIGRATION

OCEANSALINITY

TIDES

HYDRODYNAMIC TRANSPORT

WATERBORNECONSTITUENTS

BIOLOGICALCOMMUNITIES

SOLIDS

CURRENTS

HYDRODYNAMIC TRANSPORT

WATERBORNECONSTITUENTS

BIOLOGICALCOMMUNITIES

FLORA

NUTRIENTS

DENSITY

HERBIVORES

SALINITY

MIXING

CARNIVORES

OTHERS

slide12

SCIENTIFIC STRATEGIES

1 - Model cause-and-effect linkages

slide13

SCIENTIFIC STRATEGIES

1 - Model cause-and-effect linkages

2 - Relate variables statistically

slide14

SCIENTIFIC STRATEGIES

1 - Model cause-and-effect linkages

2 - Relate variables statistically

slide15

METEOROLOGY

INFLOW

LOADS

INSOLATION

MIGRATION

OCEANSALINITY

TIDES

HYDRODYNAMIC TRANSPORT

WATERBORNECONSTITUENTS

BIOLOGICALCOMMUNITIES

SOLIDS

CURRENTS

HYDRODYNAMIC TRANSPORT

WATERBORNECONSTITUENTS

BIOLOGICALCOMMUNITIES

FLORA

NUTRIENTS

DENSITY

HERBIVORES

SALINITY

MIXING

CARNIVORES

OTHERS

slide16

METEOROLOGY

INFLOW

LOADS

INSOLATION

MIGRATION

OCEANSALINITY

TIDES

HYDRODYNAMIC TRANSPORT

WATERBORNECONSTITUENTS

BIOLOGICALCOMMUNITIES

SOLIDS

CURRENTS

HYDRODYNAMIC TRANSPORT

WATERBORNECONSTITUENTS

BIOLOGICALCOMMUNITIES

FLORA

NUTRIENTS

DENSITY

HERBIVORES

SALINITY

MIXING

CARNIVORES

OTHERS

slide17

METEOROLOGY

INFLOW

LOADS

INSOLATION

MIGRATION

OCEANSALINITY

TIDES

HYDRODYNAMIC TRANSPORT

WATERBORNECONSTITUENTS

BIOLOGICALCOMMUNITIES

SOLIDS

CURRENTS

HYDRODYNAMIC TRANSPORT

WATERBORNECONSTITUENTS

BIOLOGICALCOMMUNITIES

FLORA

NUTRIENTS

DENSITY

HERBIVORES

SALINITY

MIXING

CARNIVORES

OTHERS

1 - Model cause-and-effect linkages

slide18

METEOROLOGY

INFLOW

LOADS

INSOLATION

MIGRATION

OCEANSALINITY

TIDES

HYDRODYNAMIC TRANSPORT

WATERBORNECONSTITUENTS

BIOLOGICALCOMMUNITIES

SOLIDS

CURRENTS

HYDRODYNAMIC TRANSPORT

WATERBORNECONSTITUENTS

BIOLOGICALCOMMUNITIES

FLORA

NUTRIENTS

DENSITY

HERBIVORES

SALINITY

MIXING

CARNIVORES

OTHERS

2 - Relate variables statistically

slide19

TWO PRECEPTS

Any assumed functional variation of a model represents a source of error.

Any external variable not explicitly modeled represents a source of variance.

slide21

TWO (2) FACTS ABOUT TEXAS RAINFALL

PRODUCED ALMOST ENTIRELY FROM DEEP CONVECTION

DECLINES PRECIPITOUSLY FROM EAST TO WEST

slide23

TWO (2) FACTS ABOUT TEXAS RUNOFF

SMALL AS A PROPORTION OF RAINFALL

DECLINES EVEN MORE PRECIPITOUSLY FROM EAST TO WEST

slide26

TWO (2) FACTS ABOUT TEXAS STREAM FLOW

FLASHY

SUBSTANTIAL YEAR-TO-YEAR (& LONG-TERM) VARIABILITY

slide27

Guadalupe River at Victoria

daily flow

30-day sliding mean

slide28

2.7

3.9

8.9

14.3

years

freshwater flows to bays and estuaries

Freshwater flows tobays and estuaries

Paul MontagnaGeorge Ward

University of Texas at Austin