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UNECA Seventh African Development Forum 10-15 October 2010 UNCC, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Climate Change Negotiations & The Cancun Outcomes. UNECA Seventh African Development Forum 10-15 October 2010 UNCC, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Dan Bondi Ogolla Chief Legal Adviser UNFCCC secretariat <unfccc.int>. I. The current negotiation mandates. Kyoto Protocol. Convention.

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UNECA Seventh African Development Forum 10-15 October 2010 UNCC, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

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  1. Climate Change Negotiations & The Cancun Outcomes UNECA Seventh African Development Forum 10-15 October 2010 UNCC, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Dan Bondi Ogolla Chief Legal Adviser UNFCCC secretariat <unfccc.int>

  2. I. The current negotiation mandates

  3. Kyoto Protocol Convention Overview: Negotiations under the Convention and under the Kyoto Protocol Long-Term Cooperative Action: Dialogue & BAP COP 11 CMP 1 (2005) Montreal COP 13 (2007) Bali COP 15 (2009) Copenhagen COP 16 (2010) Cancun Further commitments for Annex I Parties

  4. 1/CMP.1under the Kyoto Protocol 1/CP.13under the UNFCCC Ad hoc working group on further commitments for Annex I Parties (AWG-KP) Specific mandate to agree targets for CP.2 Ad hoc working group on long-term cooperative action (AWG-LCA) Broad mandate to ensure long-termimplementation of the Convention Mandate

  5. AWG-LCA Mandate • Decision 1/CP.13 • A comprehensive process to enable the full, effective and sustained implementation of the Convention through LCA, now, up to until & beyond 2012

  6. AWG-LCA Mandate • In order to reach an agreed outcome and adopt a decision at COP 15 • By addressing: • A shared vision for co-operative action – including a long-term global goal for emissions reduction;

  7. AWG-LCA Mandate • Enhanced national/international action on mitigation of climate change including: • MRV national mitigation commitments or actions, including QELRCs for all developed countries; • NAMAs by developing countries – supported & enabled by technology, financing, & CB, in a MRV manner. • Enhanced action on adaptation • Enhanced action on technology development and transfer to support mitigation & adaptation actions

  8. AWG-LCA Mandate • Enhanced action on provision of financialresources & investment to support mitigation & adaptation actions • Capacity-building • Process to be conducted in AWG-LCA • Work to be completed in 2009 & report to COP 15

  9. AWG-LCA Mandate • The “agreed outcome” can take several forms • A new protocol under the Convention; • A set of decisions by the COP; or • A combination of the above. • Raises the issue of the architecture of the post-2012 climate change regime.

  10. AWG-LCA Issues & Outcomes A Shared vision on long-term cooperative action: • The long-term global goal for emission reductions and associated considerations • Expression of a shared vision for all elements of the Bali Action Plan • Review • Long-term global goal • Overall progress in implementing the Convention

  11. AWG-LCA Issues & Outcomes • Expressed as an aspirational long-term global goal: – GHG concentrations to below 300ppm CO2 equivalent; - maintaining temperature rise to below 1.5 C; - collectively reduce global emissions by 50-85-95 more than 100% by 2050. • Expressed as mid-term goal for AI: - peaking of GHG emissions by 2015/2020; - reduction by 40-50% by 2020, 80-95% by 2050. -DCs to mobilize USD 100 billion/make assessed contributions of 1.5 of GDP a year by 2020.

  12. Issues & Cancun Outcomes Mitigation under the BAP • Commitments or actions by developed country Parties • NAMAs by developing country Parties • Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in dcs and the role of forests (REDD-plus) • Cooperative sectoral approaches and sector-specific actions; • Various approaches, including opportunities for using markets; • Economic and social consequences of response measures

  13. Issues & Cancun Outcomes Issues in Developed Countries mitigation • How to define & adopt targets: bottom-up (pledges) or top-down (int’lly negotiated based on agreed aggregate; • Where to negotiate: AWG-LCA or AWG-KP; • MRV: Kyoto-rules or simple pledge & review; • Comparability of effort: through int’l process or a non-quantifiable general principle.

  14. AWG-LCA Issues Issues in Developing Countries Mitigation: • BAP-1 (b) (ii) – NAMAs in the context of SD, supported and enabled by technology, finance and CB, in a MRV manner; • 3 Types of NAMAs: • Domestically funded; • Supported NAMAs; and • NAMAs undertaken to generate carbon credits

  15. AWG-LCA Issues Issues in Developing Countries Mitigation • Packaging of NAMAs in an Appendix II; • Mitigation Mechanism for technical support & provision of financial, technological & CB support; • NAMA Registry – NAMAs implemented through or seeking int’l support to be recorded. Functions of registry. • MRV of NAMAs – domestic/int’l; ICA - facilitative, technical transparent, confidence-building,Party-driven process that respects national sovereignty

  16. AWG-LCA Issues Issues in Adaptation • Adaptation Framework: to enhance action & int’l cooperation; • Parties - planning, prioritizing & implementing adaptation actions; impact & vulnerability assessments; strengthening institutional capacities; building resilience of socio-economic and ecological systems. • Process for LDCs to formulate and implement national adaptation plans. • Scaled-up financial support as well as technological and CB assistance; • Adaptation Committee (and its functions) or existing institutional arrangements. • International mechanism to address loss and damage.

  17. AWG-LCA Issues Technology in the BAP • BAP- 1(d)- Enhanced action on technology development & transfer to support action on mitigation and adaptation: - Removal of obstacles & provision of financial & other incentives for scaling-up development and transfer of ESTs; -Ways to accelerate deployment, diffusion & transfer of affordable ESTs; -Cooperation in R&D; -Mechanisms & tools for cooperation in specific sectors.

  18. AWG-LCA Issues Issues in Technology Development & Transfer: • Technology Mechanism & functions -To consist of a Technology Executive Committee & a Climate Technology Centre & Network; -Functions of TEC: needs assessments; policies & guidance to COP; promote cooperation; address IPR issues; -CTCN: provide advice & support to Parties; facilitate deployment of technologies • The role of IPRs. • MRV of technological transfer and diffusion.

  19. AWG-LCA Issues Issues in Finance: • Sources of financing: public or private? Newmarket mechanism under the Convention? • Institutional Issues: FM Governance – New body of the FM; Strengthen existing institutions – Role of GEF; New Fund and its Finance Board; Funding windows – mitigation, adaptation. • Fast start finance: USD 30B for 2010-2012. • MRV of financial support.

  20. AWG-LCA Issues REDD-Plus in the BAP: BAP-1(b)iii-Policy approaches & positive incentives on issues relating to reducing emissions from deforestation & forest degradation in dcs; and the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of carbon stocks in dcs. • Forests play an important role in global C budget, acting either as sinks or sources of C.

  21. Issues and Cancun Outcomes Issues in REDD-plus • Establishment of a REDD-plus mechanism & its functions; • Actions in the forest sector & incentives – eligibility for funding; • Role of indigenous peoples & local communities; • Launch of a readiness phase for REDD-plus.

  22. Issues in REDD-plus: Different phases for implementing REDD-plus activities: an initial readiness phase, a policy implementation and demonstration activities phase and a full implementation phase. Each of these phases will likely require different levels and/or types of financing.

  23. AWG-LCA Cancun Outcomes Balanced Outcome in Cancun under the BAP: • At the August session in Bonn Parties called for a politically balanced outcome in Cancun covering all elements of the BAP. • The outcome to be in the form of decisions for immediate implementation. • But also call for balance between the 2 tracks. • The AWG-LCA Chair tabled at the session held in Tianjin last elements of such an outcome. These are: Shared Vision: for long-term cooperation +long-term global goal for reductions; process to review progress + goal.

  24. Issues & Cancun Outcomes Mitigation: • Targets or actions for DCs; • MRV for developed countries & actions; • NAMAs by developing countries & associated support; • MRV for NAMAs; • Readiness phase of mitigation activities in the forest sector (REDD-plus); • PoW on mitigation in agriculture; • Bunker fuels; • Various approaches, including markets; • Econ & soc consequences of response measures

  25. Issues & Cancun Outcomes Adaptation: • Adaptation framework & implementation institutions. • Approach to address loss & damage.

  26. Issues & Cancun Outcomes Finance, Technology & CB • Reporting on fast-start finance; • New Fund & process of its design; • Arrangements to improve coherence & coordination in CC financing- Oversight Body; • Mobilization of long-term finance; • MRV of support; • Establishment of Tech Mech, TEC & CTCN • CB

  27. III. AWG-KP Mandate • I/CMP.1: a process to consider “further commitments” of AIPs for the period beyond 2012 in accordance with Art. 3.9 of the KP -AIP targets. • Other issues • Mechanisms • LULUCF • Greenhouse gases, sectors & source categories • Potential consequences • Art. 3.9 - commitments for CPs adopted through amendments to Annex B.

  28. AWG-KP Issues Scale of Annex I Parties emission reductions (IPCC AR 4 ranges of 25-40%) • Proposals: range 15 to 50% by in 2020; & 80-95% by 2050. • Current pledges by AIPs (bottom-up) reduction of 17-25% by 2020; • Upper range of pledges conditional upon major economies action • Means of achieving the QELROs: • Role of mechanisms and supplementarity of their use to domestic emission reductions • Role of the LULUCF sector and rules for CP2; • How to treat assigned amounts carry-overs from the CP1 and surplus units in CP2

  29. Outcome under the AWG-KP • Transforming pledges into QELROs • Base year: 1990, 2000 and 2005 • Number and duration of CPs one (2013-2020), or two (2013-2017, 2018-2022) • Starting point for emissions trajectory for transforming pledges into QELROs: current level of emissions, or QELROs for CP1 • LULUCF: Negotiations on the definitions, modalities, rules and guidelines for the treatment of land use, land use change and forestry in CP2

  30. AWG-KP Issues Mechanisms: • increase the scope of the mechanisms (nuclear in CDM/JI, CCS in CDM) • change the operation of the mechanisms (co-benefits in CDM/JI, standardized baselines in CDM, discount factors in CDM, regional distribution in CDM) • accounting rules (carryover limits CP2 to CP3, share of proceeds, access to emissions trading and use of units) • establish new market mechanisms

  31. AWG-KP Issues • GHGs, sectors and source categories • Prevent the use and emission of “new gases” as alternatives to those being phased out under the MP: E.g. new species of HFCs and PFCs. Potential consequences of policies of AIPs: -Enhance understanding; -Provision of info & assessment of impacts; -Permanent forum for reporting & evaluating impacts & consequences.

  32. AWG-KP Cancun Outcomes • Clarity on the future of KP: CP 2; • Formalization of mitigation pledges put forward by AIPs in 2010; • Agreement on number and duration of commitment periods? • Agreement on base-year?

  33. Thank you! For further information: <unfccc.int>

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