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Advances on the use of NAEFS products on operational meteorology and research in Mexico. René Lobato-Sánchez Alberto Hernández-Unzón. Bit of a Background.

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Advances on the use of naefs products on operational meteorology and research in mexico

Advances on the use of NAEFS products on operational meteorology and research in Mexico

René Lobato-Sánchez

Alberto Hernández-Unzón


Advances on the use of naefs products on operational meteorology and research in mexico

Bit of a Background meteorology and research in Mexico

  • The first operational numerical model was installed in late spring of 2000 (MM5). Now we have both MM5 and WRF running in a 24 parallel processor server.

  • A complete change of perspective among Mexican forecasters (change of skeptisism became critical).

  • Now, the meteorological forecasts depend heavily on numerical models, little synoptic man-made analysis is done now.


Advances on the use of naefs products on operational meteorology and research in mexico

  • The culture of using ensambled outputs has now becomed a standard resource for operational forecasters in Mexico.

  • SMN (operational) and IMTA (research) are among the institutions who extensively uses those.

  • Regional offices of CONAGUA are promoted to use NAEFS at operatonal level.


Advances on the use of naefs products on operational meteorology and research in mexico

  • IMTA uses extensively NAEFS products for its daily meteorological bulletins

  • Outputs from CMC are used more extensively.

  • CMC ensamble covers the Mexico entirely

  • Probabilistic maps and epsgrams are consulted very day (more locations needed)

  • Ensambles from NCEP have good skills but hard to read a regional spatial scales


Advances on the use of naefs products on operational meteorology and research in mexico

Good at synoptic scales meteorological bulletins


Advances on the use of naefs products on operational meteorology and research in mexico

Probabilistic QPF is very important and widely used. meteorological bulletins

Request:

Could outputs go further south?


Advances on the use of naefs products on operational meteorology and research in mexico

Week two temperature forecast meteorological bulletins

  • North American Ensemble Forecast System

  • 8 to 14 Day Temperature Guidance

  • Time scale is very important, especially for the monitoring of the onset of the rainy season


Advances on the use of naefs products on operational meteorology and research in mexico

Different products in use at SMN’s Forecast Office meteorological bulletins

probabilistic forecast of temperature anomaly over the NAEFS

Could we add political state boundaries for Mexico?


Different products in use at smn s forecast office
Different products in use at SMN’s Forecast Office meteorological bulletins

Prob. Wind Speed Prob. Pcpn over 5 mm

Prob. Max. Sfc. Air Temp.

Over 30°C


Advances on the use of naefs products on operational meteorology and research in mexico

Extreme Forecast Index as in ECWMF meteorological bulletins

Wind Gust total pcpn index

Sfc temp


Advances on the use of naefs products on operational meteorology and research in mexico

Daily analysis meteorological bulletins

Since November 2007, SE Mexico is receiving special attention


Advances on the use of naefs products on operational meteorology and research in mexico

Could we add Relative Humidity? meteorological bulletins



Advances on the use of naefs products on operational meteorology and research in mexico

Due to budgetary restrictions, upper air soundings cannot be launched at all sites (17), therefore have to schedule some stations at 12Z and others to 0Z

  • What is the optimal scheme for NAEFS?

  • Launch all at the same time ?

  • Which sites and time would be more useful?


Advances on the use of naefs products on operational meteorology and research in mexico

In Hydrology it has been detected the possibility of using NAEFS ensamble gridded outputs in order to do streamflow forecasting

Can we have access to the grid ensemble output on a operational basis?


Proposal of required products for mexico probabilistic products from naefs
Proposal of Required products for MEXICO NAEFS ensamble gridded outputs in order to do streamflow forecastingProbabilistic Products from NAEFS

TEMPERATURES:

In HeatWaves: Anotherrange > 40°C

In ColdWaves: Is OK

RAIN:

MaybeIncorporates EFI similar to ECMWF

WIND SPEED:

AnotherRanges: 7 onBeaufortScale (28-33 km/h)

8 onBeaufortScale (34-40 km/h)

& 9 onBeaufortScale (41-47 km/h)


Are there specific needs that naefs requieres from smn
Are there specific needs that NAEFS requieres from SMN ? NAEFS ensamble gridded outputs in order to do streamflow forecasting


Advances on the use of naefs products on operational meteorology and research in mexico

THANK YOU !!! NAEFS ensamble gridded outputs in order to do streamflow forecasting