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ENSEMBLES – Progress Report WP6.2 meeting, Helsinki Chris Hewitt, Met Office Hadley Centre, April 2007 Project Office can be contacted on [email protected] Web site is http://www.ensembles-eu.org. Strategic Objectives. Develop an ensemble prediction system

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ENSEMBLES – Progress Report

WP6.2 meeting, Helsinki

Chris Hewitt, Met Office Hadley Centre, April 2007

Project Office can be contacted on [email protected]

Web site is http://www.ensembles-eu.org

Strategic objectives
Strategic Objectives

  • Develop an ensemble prediction system

    based on global andregional Earth System models, validated against observations and analyses,

    to produce a probabilistic estimate of uncertainty in future climate at the seasonal, decadal and longer timescales

  • Quantify and reduce uncertainty in the representation of physical, chemical, biological and human-related feedbacks in the Earth System

  • Exploit the results by linking the outputs to a range of applications, including agriculture, health, food security, energy, water resources, insurance

System development and assembly

Understanding, evaluation

Impacts, Scenarios and policy

Model ‘engine’: hindcasts, climate integrations

Research Themes (RTs) summary

Progress gcm seasonal to decadal
Progress: GCM seasonal to decadal

Three different seasonal to decadal forecast systems to estimate model uncertainty:

  • Multi-model system for s2d forecasts installed at ECMWF built from EUROSIP operational activities and DEMETER experience

  • Perturbed parameter system, built from the decadal prediction system (DePreSys) at the Met Office

  • Stochastic physics system, from the CASBS system developed for medium-range forecasting at ECMWF

    Design of a set of common experiments to determine the benefits of each approach. All show promising aspects.

    Improved ocean data assimilation systems for s2d prediction

Progress gcm centennial
Progress: GCM centennial

Multi-model ACC simulations (IPCC 4AR)

  • Conducted historical runs (1860-2000)

  • and scenario runs (IPCC A1B, A2, B1)

  • including Hadley Centre perturbed parameter runs, maybe other GCMs

Progress regional modelling

Defined RCM domain

ERA40 hindcats (1961-2000) at 50km resolution: 11 completed, 7 already in the central archive

ERA40 runs at 25km resolution underway

Matrix of driving GCMs/RCMs devised

0.22º (25km) grid mesh (courtesy of Burkhardt Rockel)

Progress: regional modelling

Progress continued

OLD (ECA daily dataset)NEW

Progress (continued)

  • Scientific analyses (e.g. cloud feedbacks, carbon, sea-ice, …)

  • Linking impact models to probabilistic scenarios (including provision of interim pdfs from PPE to RT6)

  • Publicly available Climate Explorer http://climexp.knmi.nl/ further developed as integrated diagnostic tool

  • Producing daily gridded datasets for Europe (on same grid as RCMs), particularly for evaluating extremes

  • New emissions scenario developed (A1B baseline, stabilise to 450ppmv CO2eq)

Progress continued1
Progress (continued)

  • Editable publications page available, hosted by UREADMM

  • Publications of ENSEMBLES results starting to appear in journals. ENSEMBLES Technical Reports series created

  • Need to increase the publicity of the results of the project

  • Participation at international meetings: EGU, AGU, EMS, ESSP, side-events at COP/MOP, joint meetings with WHO and OECD

  • West Africa to be the non-European RCM domain later in project

  • We are developing links with other projects and programmes (e.g. AMMA, ADAM, CECILIA, CIRCE, CLAVIER, DYNAMITE, Euro-Limpacs, GMES, MERSEA, QUANTIFY, WMO/WCRP mainly CLIVAR and GEWEX)

  • Our General Assembly is growing in popularity, internally and externally. GA2007 in Prague, 12-16 November

  • Expanding the “affiliated partners” (16 currently, more requested)

Affiliated partners
Affiliated partners

  • FAO, Rene Gommes, RT5&6

  • WHO, Bettine Menne, RT5

  • University of Zurich, Nadine Salzmann, RT6

  • ESSC, John Christy, RT5

  • Dept. Geography, Nat. Univ. of Ireland, Kieran Hickey, RT5

  • NCAR, Guy Brasseur, Jerry Meehl, Linda Mearns, RT2A&2B

  • FRGCG, Michio Kawamiya, RT1&2A

  • CCSR (University of Tokyo), Masahide Kimoto, RT4

  • Nat. Inst. Earth Sciences, Toru Nozawa/Seita Emori, RT2A

  • SINTEF Energy Research, Atle Harby, RT6

  • University of Copenhagen, Eigil Kaas, RT2A

  • University of Exeter, David Stephenson, RT4 (&5?)

  • Nat. Acad. Of Scientists of Ukraine, Alexander Palonski, RT6

  • University of Newcastle, Hayley Fowler

  • OURANOS Climate Analysis group, Daniel Caya/Diane Chaumont, RT2B

  • Canadian Regional Climate Modelling and Diagnostics Network (CRCMD), Colin Jones

Stream 2 simulations gcms
Stream 2 simulations – GCMs

  • s2d hindcasts 1960 onwards (previously 1991-2001)

    • Hindcasts underway. Expected completion Aug08


  • 1860-2000 historical simulations and 21st Century scenarios using updated models and E1 (previously A1B, A2, B1)

    • Spin-up of control runs underway

    • 20thC historical simulations by Aug07, may be 3 months later

    • 21stC scenarios expected Aug08


Stream 2 simulations rcms
Stream 2 simulations – RCMs

  • ERA40 hindcasts (1961-2000) at 25km.

    • Most in data archive, aiming for all by June 07

  • 1950-2050/2100 (A1B and different driving GCMs) at 25km

    • Due Aug07, may be 4 months later


  • RT3 RCM system developed, for use in RT2B by end April 07

  • Weighting of members of RCM ensembles, due Aug07

  • Recommendations and guidance on methods for construction of probabilistic regional climate scenarios by Feb08

  • Assessment of robustness of sds techniques using GCM and RCM output by Feb08

Plans for 2007
Plans for 2007

  • Develop data archives

    • s2d @ ECMWF building on DEMETER database

    • RCM @ DMI building on PRUDENCE database

    • GCM @ MPIMET (http://ensembles.wdc-climate.de) building on IPCC WCDC activities

  • Daily gridded dataset for surface climate variables for Europe, due Aug 07

  • Develop impacts models (e.g. crops, water resources, energy)

  • Develop statistical downscaling tools

  • Improved estimates for changes in extreme events

  • Workshops (Joint ENSEMBLES/CLIVAR workshop; 5th Study Conference on BALTEX)

Outreach plans
Outreach plans

  • Further develop links with CLIVAR:

    • joint workshop with Task Force on Seasonal Prediction, June 2007

    • discussions with WGCM

  • Further develop links with other WCRP projects:

    • joint workshop with CFMIP, April 2007

    • GEWEX, e.g. joint involvement in BALTEX conference, June 2007

  • Develop links with other EC projects (e.g. AMMA joint workshop, Feb07)

  • ENSEMBLES General Assemblies are now attracting other groups

Concluding remarks innovative work
Concluding remarks – innovative work

  • Brings together largely separate communities and integrates world-leading European research:

    s2d,anthropogenic climate change, global modellers, regional modellers (dynamical and statistical downscaling),scientific understanding,evaluation with observations,application modellers to deliver climate impacts, emission scenario developers, training programmes

  • Multi-disciplinary approach allows exchange of knowledge, ideas and techniques – for example extensive work on extremes

  • Multi-model ensemble-based probability approach will quantify uncertainty, increase understanding, influence the development of the next generation of models, leading to uncertainty reduction in the future

  • Examples of new products:

    • multi-model RCM system at 25km resolution

    • probabilistic methods for use for GCMs, RCMs, impact models

    • probabilistic predictions from s2d2c timescales to explore impacts

    • gridded observations for Europe with estimate of uncertainty

    • public availability of large datasets

    • developments to the publicly available Climate Explorer

    • on-line tools for users to downscale Ensembles simulations