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Analysis of Annual Inventory Data in Maine. Kenneth M. Laustsen, Biometrician Maine Forest Service (MFS) NE FIA Users’ Meeting - Sturbridge, MA April 13, 2004. 3 Analysis Categories.

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Analysis of annual inventory data in maine

Analysis of Annual Inventory Data in Maine

Kenneth M. Laustsen, Biometrician

Maine Forest Service (MFS)

NE FIA Users’ Meeting - Sturbridge, MA

April 13, 2004


3 analysis categories
3 Analysis Categories

  • Pass-Through to Northeastern Research Station (NERS) usually a spatial estimate of a specific polygonal area or a owner’s landbase

  • In-house (requests by the Maine Forest Service, Department of Conservation, Governor’s Office, or Maine Users)

  • Enhanced Collaboration (combinations of P2, P3, auxiliary MFS data, and models)


Pass through

I serve as the facilitator and a conduit to help users frame their request to NERS in regard to:

Area of interest

Species

Products

Table outputs

5 –6 requests per year

Examples include:

Due diligence for a prospective timberland acquisition

A large NIPF (1 Million acres) comparing their in-house inventory to exact FIA data

Shrub/Seedling/Sapling composition in IF&W Habitat Management Zones

Descriptive analysis of a watershed (Salmon Habitat)

Pass-Through


Pass through cont
Pass-Through their request to NERS in regard to: cont.

  • For this category, I do not see the analysis results!


In house
In-House their request to NERS in regard to:

  • This is the most frequent category for analysis requests (Average of 1 per month)

  • As a full-fledged cooperator, I have to be sensitive, respectful, and law-abiding in regards to the confidentiality issues surrounding some of the data

  • These analysis requests are more broad scale, I.e. simple working circles, entire counties, or statewide estimates


In house examples

Northern White Cedar Inventory for Aroostook County (Sawmill)

Merchantable inventory within a 100 mile radius of Fort Kent, ME (E D Director)

White Birch inventory and quality in the Western Maine FIA unit (E D Director)

Available Spruce-Fir inventory that is 5.0” to 8.9” DBH, log quality, and within 100 miles of Greenville, ME (sawmill expansion)

Available Spruce-Fir inventory within 50 miles of Dover-Foxcroft, ME (sawmill expansion)

In-House, examples


In house examples cont

100 mile wood basket (Sawmill)

of White Pine pulpwood (pulp mill looking for a cheaper fiber source)

of hemlock pulp (pulp mill looking for a cheaper fiber source)

of white pine (potential new supply source for OSB plant)

Bio-diversity indices – distance of P2 plot to nearest road, 15”+ dbh TPA live, dead, snag

Volume distribution between sawlog and topwood

Projected annual Spruce-Fir ingrowth over next 10 years

In-House, examples cont.


Enhanced collaboration
Enhanced Collaboration (Sawmill)

  • This category uses the synergy from combining multiple data sources and predictive models to produce estimates and analysis that are either uncommon or unique, but always interesting

  • Infrequent (3 – 4 per year), but much more time-consuming


White pine management in the core area 1959 2001
White Pine Management in the Core Area (1959 – 2001) (Sawmill)

  • Focused analysis on inventory, trends, and change in the southern 1/3 of Maine that contains 2/3’s of the White Pine Inventory (FIA data and MFS Data)

    • Land Use Changes

    • Forestland Conversion (P2 vs. MFS Reports)

    • Trends in Forest types and stand size

    • Product volume and log grades

    • Growth vs. Removals (P2 vs. MFS Processor Reports)


Soil erosion prediction
Soil Erosion Prediction (Sawmill)

  • Combining data from P2 and P3 plots for input into the the Disturbed WEPP model, resulting in a probability prediction of an annual runoff, erosion, and sediment estimate for three types of plot areas:

    • Undisturbed

    • Harvested

    • 1998 Ice Storm


Ice storm damage vs tree condition
Ice Storm Damage vs. Tree Condition (Sawmill)

  • Current poster session presents an analysis of the correlation between changes in Tree Condition between 1995 and a subsequent annual P2 remeasurement (2001 – 2003) to 4 preliminary damage assessment groups aerially conducted by the MFS immediately following the 1998 Ice Storm.


White birch availability regional
White Birch Availability - Regional (Sawmill)

  • Pride Manufacturing, located in Maine and Wisconsin, is the world’s largest producer of golf tees (standard, oversized, and customized).

  • The wood drain area for the Burnham, ME mill encompasses over 200 air miles.

  • With NERS help, an analysis of the availability of suitable White Birch Inventory within a 4-state region (MA, ME, NH, VT) was provided.


Trees to oil pyrolysis
Trees to Oil – Pyrolysis (Sawmill)

  • Received a request in January 2003, for an estimate of available fiber sources (residue or biomass) that were not committed to existing processing and deliverable to an existing pulp/paper mill complex.

  • Utilized P2 estimates of separate biomass components (bolewood, limbs and tops, foliage, stumps and roots, cull trees, salvable dead trees, saplings, and shrubs for selected 60 mile drain areas around 3 multiple mill groups.


Pyrolysis cont
Pyrolysis, cont. (Sawmill)

  • Utilized MFS annual county-level harvest estimates of various products (sawlogs, sawmill residue, pulpwood, biomass chips, and hog fuel) for determination of an existing annual removal volume (dry tons) as a percentage of standing inventory, ~ 2%.

  • Assumed that the same 2% volume basis of other un-utilized biomass components (branches, cull trees, salvable dead trees, and saplings) were available, removable, and deliverable with existing infrastructure.



Trends in hardwood sawtimber
Trends in Hardwood Sawtimber dry tons per day

  • In October 2001, based on the completion of 2 annual panels, I analyzed hardwood sawtimber trends from 1959 – 2000 focusing on 5 species (Red Maple, Sugar Maple, Yellow Birch, White Birch, and Red Oak) and their :

    • Average sawtimber tree size (QMD)

    • Volume per acre of sawtimber

    • Proportion of sawtimber by various grades


Trends cont
Trends, cont. dry tons per day

  • On Thursday, I will revisit the exact same topic with the exact same association, refreshing the analysis to represent the current 4 annual panels.

    • Has the forecast changed? NO

    • Is the forecast more accurate? YES


Greenhouse gas carbon credits
Greenhouse Gas & Carbon Credits dry tons per day

  • Maine has a legislative mandate to reverse its level of greenhouse gas emissions by 2010.

  • Achieving this goal requires understanding trends and current estimates of the various contributors to Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions.

  • As the following graph shows, these early estimates placed the LUCF (Land Use Change and Forestry) category as being the #2 problem area, and responsible for emitting 19% of the 2000 GHG mix.


Ghg cont
GHG, cont. dry tons per day

  • MFS with the help of the NERS, an Ag-Forestry Working Group, and other consultants has been actively rebutting those estimates and trends, while offering better data and methods for accounting for Carbon within Maine’s forest resources.

  • GHG is not just a Maine problem, but has far-reaching implications throughout the NE and Canada.

  • How much cash are you willing to accept today, to store carbon on the stump for the next 25 years, in lieu of a future harvest?


Questions

Questions dry tons per day


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