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Head in the Clouds Moore's Law and the Evolution of Cloud Computing Implications and Drivers of Information Economics. Sean Farney Principal Program Manager Microsoft Corporation. S ean Farney Bio. Mr. Farney, a 2007 MSIT graduate, is a Principal Program Manager in the Data

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Head in the CloudsMoore's Law and the Evolution of Cloud ComputingImplications and Drivers of Information Economics

Sean Farney

Principal Program Manager

Microsoft Corporation


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Sean Farney Bio

Mr. Farney, a 2007 MSIT graduate, is a Principal Program Manager in the Data

Center Services organization at Microsoft Corporation. He currently manages the

integration of the Online Services business and Partner relationships into

Microsoft's global data center footprint.

With a 15+ year background in Information Technology, past roles have

included Network Architect at the Boston Consulting Group, Director of Global

Technology Infrastructure for Havi Global Solutions, and IT Director at The

Marketing Store.

His publications include, "An Application of Central Limit Theorem to Wide Area

Network Service Level Agreement Analyses", written under advisement of Dr.

Abraham Haddad.

He sits on the Northwestern University McCormick School of Engineering MSIT

Alumni Board and serves as Technology Advisor to The Golden Apple Foundation.

A Chicago native, Sean lives in Wheaton with his wife and 3 kids.


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Head in the Clouds- What is Cloud Computing?

  • Prescriptive technology or Marketing buzzword?- Yes

    • Similar to SOA

  • Gartner definition- “a style of computing where massively scalable, IT-enabled capabilities are provided ‘as a service’ to external customers using Internet technologies”

    • But also more pedestrian- email, Facebook,

      eBay, Blogging, Twitter, SaaS

    • New OSI Model?

  • Embodiment of new information technology paradigm

    • Mainframe/timesharing- highly centralized, small network value

    • PC- highly distributed, no network value

    • Client/Server- distributed centralization, medium network value

    • Internet- highly distributed, large network value

    • Cloud- infinitely distributed, maximum network value


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Moore is More- How Did We Get Here?

Compute Capability & Cost Over Time

1000

100

10

1

Processor

Storage

Bandwidth

(Nielsen’s Law)

$$$ Cost

Capability - MIPS, Hz, bps, GB

1970s1980s 1990s 2000s


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Metcalfe's More- How Did We Get Here?

Infrastructure Centralization & Network Effect Over Time

Infrastructure

100

10

1

0

Connected users (v~n2)

Centralization

1970s1980s 1990s 2000s

We have reached Technological pervasiveness


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Rainmaker- Moore's Flooding of the Enterprise Data Center and Augmentation of the Cloud

  • Density has destroyed the modern day corporate data center

    • Extraordinary demands on power and cooling due to processor and storage densities

    • Stranded power

    • Cost of Facilities #1 in 2008

  • The World is Flat

    • But submarine cabling systems are not

    • Propagation delay drives distribution of dense data centers

    • Wave of Internet addiction has pushed social/consumer networking infrastructure global

  • Data Center CapEx/OpEx activation energy very high

    • Haves and Have Nots?

Interesting thought exercise: combine Moore’s & Metcalfe’s, add-in cost to value proposition


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Moore is Less- What is "The Cloud" and Augmentation of the Cloud

“The software industry is changing by the minute. This once-ethereal, all

intellectual property business is starting to seem like old industry, where

Advantage will come from physical assets and capital spending. From

the tyranny of the application to the massive scale of infrastructure- this is

disruptive change”

Fortune Magazine, Microsoft’s cash versus Google, 05 May 2006

Mike Manos video

“Containerization”: Microsoft’s Chicago DC’s Cblox

  • Scale & commoditization is now measure of compute

  • Aggregation/Virtualization has de-emphasized

    progression of Moore’s

  • Tipping point of great significance


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The Cloud's Gold Lining and Augmentation of the Cloud

“What made large scale electric utilities possible was a series of

engineering breakthroughs…but what ensured their triumph was not

technology but economics” Nicholas Carr, The Big Switch, 2008

  • Amazon Web Services (AWS)/Simple Storage Service (S3)/Elastic Compute Cloud (E2C) successful POC

    • Low relative revenues, penetration

  • Search/Ad $$$ strong profits

    • Vulnerable to competition and discretionary spend/cyclical

  • Large-scale capture of Enterprise spend will ensuresuccess of Cloud model

    • Azure, not Windows 7, PDC keynote

  • Impact to IT & Business

    • Outsourcing saw- “own the core, source rest”

      • Personnel, complexity, power, A/C, latency,, Tax&Legal, compliance

        “When computers users spend more time tapping remote disks and

        databases than accessing their own, software will be fundamentally

        changed…and proliferate across the web in components rather than in

        suites” George Gilder, Telecosm, 2000


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Links and Augmentation of the Cloud

The Big Switch, Rewiring the World, from Edison to Google, Nicholas Carr, 2008

Telecosm: The World After Bandwidth Abundance, George Gilder, 2002

What Ray Ozzie sees in Azure's cloud

http://news.cnet.com/8301-13860_3-10076765-56.html?part=rss&subj=news&tag=2547-1_3-0-20

Microsoft launches Windows Azure

http://news.cnet.com/microsoft-launches-windows-azure/

Mike Manos blog

http://loosebolts.wordpress.com

Microsoft Container presentation

http://www.datacenterknowledge.com/archives/2008/08/21/microsoft-cblox-data-center-containers/

Hardware Makers Eye Cloud Computing Building Boom

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/djf500/200810281556DOWJONESDJONLINE000715_FORTUNE5.htm

The Woman Behind the Microsoft Cloud

http://www.eweek.com/c/a/Cloud-Computing/The-Woman-Behind-the-Microsoft-Cloud/

Microsoft's Bid To Control The Cloud

http://www.forbes.com/technology/2008/10/27/microsoft-cloud-computing-tech-enter-cz_vb_qh_1027cloud.html

Microsoft to support Windows Azure with datacenter investments

http://www.infoworld.com/article/08/10/28/Microsoft_to_support_Windows_Azure_with_datacenter_investments_1.html

Microsoft Plans Big Data Center Expansion to Support Azure

http://www.itbusinessedge.com/blogs/hdw/?p=3442


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© and Augmentation of the Cloud2008 Microsoft Corporation. All rights reserved. Microsoft, Windows, Windows Vista and other product names are or may be registered trademarks and/or trademarks in the U.S. and/or other countries.

The information herein is for informational purposes only and represents the current view of Microsoft Corporation as of the date of this presentation. Because Microsoft must respond to changing market conditions, it should not be interpreted to be a commitment on the part of Microsoft, and Microsoft cannot guarantee the accuracy of any information provided after the date of this presentation. Microsoftis a trademark of the Microsoft companies. The Microsoft Financing marks are used by CIT Financial Ltd. under license. MICROSOFT MAKES NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESS, IMPLIED OR STATUTORY, AS TO THE INFORMATION IN THIS PRESENTATION.


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