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A JUNE MONSOON? David L. Mitchell 1 , Dorothea Ivanova 1 and David Gochis 2

A JUNE MONSOON? David L. Mitchell 1 , Dorothea Ivanova 1 and David Gochis 2 Desert Research Institute, Reno, Nevada 2. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado. Acknowledgment: We thank the people at NOAA/NESDIS, CIMSS at Univ.

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A JUNE MONSOON? David L. Mitchell 1 , Dorothea Ivanova 1 and David Gochis 2

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  1. A JUNE MONSOON? • David L. Mitchell1, Dorothea Ivanova1 and David Gochis2 • Desert Research Institute, Reno, Nevada • 2. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado Acknowledgment: We thank the people at NOAA/NESDIS, CIMSS at Univ. Madison, Wisc., the Navel Research Laboratory in Monterey and UNiSYS for hosting their products on the internet regarding satellite SSTs, total precipitable water, rainfall amounts and wind fields.

  2. Mean rainfall rates for the AZNM region for N. GC SST intervals of 0.5oC based on five June-August seasons. AZNM region cumulative normalized rainfall for periods having N. GC SSTs ≤ indicated SST. Time is implicit with increasing SSTs.

  3. 7 July 2002 at 00 UTC, Total Precip. Water (TPW) 9 July 2002 at 00 UTC, TPW 11 July 2002 at 00 UTC, TPW 2.4oC increase in N. GC SST over 2 days, reaching 29.8oC.

  4. 2002 AZ Monsoon Onset Period 11 July 2002 at 00 UTC. 24 hour rainfall accumulation 15 July 2002 at 00 UTC. 24 hour rainfall accumulation

  5. Hypothesis Development: MM5 Modeling of the 1999 Arizona Monsoon Onset SST Evolution along the NW coast of Mexico

  6. SST Dependence of Vertical Mixing Over the Northern Gulf Cross-Section A-B: Potential temperature Northern gulf SST: 26 oC SST below N. GC: 28 oC Northern gulf SST: 30 oC SST below N. GC: 30 oC 5 AM LST, day 3

  7. Cross-Section C-D: Water vapor mixing ratio Northern gulf SST: 29 oC SST below N. GC: 30 oC Northern gulf SST: 30 oC SST below N. GC: 30 oC 5 AM LST, day 3

  8. N. GC 26oC; 28oC otherwise N. GC 29oC; 30oC otherwise N. GC. 30oC; 30oC otherwise Sensitivity of CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) to GC sea surface temperatures. Simulation time = 54 h; 11 pm LST. Yellow ≈ 1300 J/kg (CAPE) Orange ≈ 2100 J/kg Red ≈ 2900 J/kg Brown ≈ 3700 J/kg

  9. Dependence of CIN on GC SST 5 AM MST Day 3 5 PM MST Day 3 26/28 oC 29/30 oC 30/30 oC

  10. Conceptual Model of Moisture Advection Dependence on SST

  11. Comparison of modeled and observed normalized rainfall rates for AZNM region , for modeled conditions in conformity with hypothesis

  12. Examples of NAME Soundings over the GC; August Cruise 3 km 2.5 km Altitude 0 10 30 0 10 30 20 20 Temperature, Dewpoint, deg. C Temperature, Dewpoint, deg. C

  13. A June Monsoon? Blended SSMI/TRMM experimental rainfall estimates from NRL, Monterey

  14. SST & TPW NG: 24.2 oC NG: 26.7 oC 16 June 2005 20 June 2005

  15. Wind fields suggest Gulf of Calif. moisture source 5 pm MST June 20th, 850 mb 5 pm MST June 20th, 700 mb

  16. June monsoon summary

  17. Food for Thought

  18. What will happen next?

  19. SUMMARY 1. MM5 simulations suggest that the marine boundary layer in the Gulf of California (GC) may be sensitive to GC SSTs. This MBL may act as a moisture source for monsoon rainfall over AZ. 2. The moisture source for the June period of scattered thundershowers affecting AZ, the Great Basin and Colorado appears to be the GC. This same pattern is common during the monsoon season. 3. Soundings over the GC during NAME are consistent with MM5 soundings. 4. Observations of SST, TPW, winds and rainfall during the “June monsoon” of 2005 appear consistent with the hypothesis developed from the MM5 study. 5. Since the GC appears to be warming at a rate of about 1.4 oC over the last 20 years, it is important to understand the role that GC SSTs play in monsoon dynamics.

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