slide1 n.
Download
Skip this Video
Loading SlideShow in 5 Seconds..
Amir Abbas Rassafi PowerPoint Presentation
Download Presentation
Amir Abbas Rassafi

Loading in 2 Seconds...

play fullscreen
1 / 38

Amir Abbas Rassafi - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 132 Views
  • Uploaded on

Amir Abbas Rassafi. Sharif University of Technology. Quantitative Methods in the Assessment of Sustainable Transport. PhD Candidate of Transportation Engineering. The Presentation Outline. Problem Definition The Emergence of Sustainable Development (SD) Quantification of SD

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about 'Amir Abbas Rassafi' - tamira


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
amir abbas rassafi

Amir Abbas Rassafi

Sharif University of Technology

Quantitative Methods in the Assessment of Sustainable Transport

PhD Candidate of Transportation Engineering

the presentation outline
The Presentation Outline
  • Problem Definition
  • The Emergence of Sustainable Development (SD)
  • Quantification of SD
  • - Assessment
  • - Modeling
  • The proposed Method for Assessment
  • - Elasticity
  • - Database Characteristics
  • - Data Reduction
  • - Final Database
  • - Elasticity Analysis
  • - Aggregation and Its Different Scopes
the presentation outline1
The Presentation Outline
  • Applications:
  • - Concordance Analysis
  • - Data Envelopment Analysis
  • - Posets / Hasse Diagram Technique
  • The proposed Method for Modeling
  • - Chaos
  • - Predator-Prey Model
  • Conclusions
problem definition
Problem Definition
  • The Objective Is to Quantify the Concept of Sustainable Transport (ST) in a National Scope
  • Transport Has Major Interactions with the Other Sectors:
  • Transport vs. Economy
  • Transport vs. Environment
  • Transport vs. Social Aspects
problem definition1
Problem Definition
  • Transport vs. Economy
  • Measuring the Economic Wealth of the Countries
  • The Role of Transport in Economy
    • + Value Added of the Car Industries
    • + Value Added of the Transport Services (Supply Chain / People Movement)
    • + Accessibility
  • The Impact of Economy on Transport
problem definition2
Problem Definition
  • Transport vs. Environment
  • Non-Renewable Resource Depletion
  • Pollution
problem definition3
Problem Definition
  • Transport vs. Social Aspect
  • Equity
  • Public Participation
  • Traffic Accidents
the emergence of sd

SD

Development

Growth

The Emergence of SD
  • The Growth Chain
quantification of sd
Quantification of SD
  • Assessment
  • Indicators / Criteria
  • Modeling
  • System Dynamics / Differential and Difference Equations / Optimization
the proposed method for assessment
The proposed Method for Assessment
  • Why Elasticity?
  • - A Comprehensive Measure
  • - Comparative Assessment
  • - Finding Trends
  • - Temporal Consideration
the proposed method for assessment1
The proposed Method for Assessment
  • Preliminary Database
  • - National Data Reported Annually
  • - References (WB, UN, IRU)
  • - 450 Variables in 3+1 Categories
  • - Missing Data
the proposed method for assessment2
The proposed Method for Assessment
  • Data Reduction
  • - Cut-Off Rule
  • - Factor Analysis

Factor analysis attempts to identify underlying variables, or factors, that explain the pattern of correlations within a set of observed variables. Factor analysis is often used in data reduction to identify a small number of factors that explain most of the variance observed in a much larger number of manifest variables.

- Factor Analysis

the proposed method for assessment3
The proposed Method for Assessment

- Factor Analysis

  • Data reduction tool
  • Removes redundancy or duplication from a set of correlated variables
  • Represents correlated variables with a smaller set of “derived” variables.
  • Factors are formed that are relatively independent of one another.
  • Components:
    • latent variables: factors
    • observed variables
the proposed method for assessment4
The proposed Method for Assessment

- Factor Analysis

  • Data reduction tool
  • Removes redundancy or duplication from a set of correlated variables
  • Represents correlated variables with a smaller set of “derived” variables.
  • Factors are formed that are relatively independent of one another.
  • Components:
    • latent variables: factors
    • observed variables
the proposed method for assessment5

Sustainability Index

T

NT

C

H

M

R

A

E

S

U

D

U

D

U

D

U

D

V

B

V

B

P

F

P

F

P

F

P

F

P

F

P

F

P

F

P

F

P

F

P

F

The proposed Method for Assessment
  • Final Database

The Variable Selection Structure

the proposed method for assessment6
The proposed Method for Assessment
  • Final Database

The Selected Variables

the proposed method for assessment7
The proposed Method for Assessment
  • Final Database

The Selected Variables

the proposed method for assessment8
The proposed Method for Assessment
  • 432 Elasticity Values for Each Country

Elasticity of Y with respect to X

  • Elasticity Analysis

Transport Variable

Non-Transport Variable

the proposed method for assessment9
The proposed Method for Assessment

Z Score

Mean

  • Aggregation

Composite Index of Group G WRT X

Standard Deviation

Coefficient

slide21

Applications

Concordance Analysis

-Alternate plans are ranked by a series of pairwise comparisons across the set of objectives in a rank-ordering technique.

-Alternatives  Countries

- objectives  Composite Indices

slide22

Applications

Concordance Analysis

Concordance Analysis

-A concordance index calculates the degree to which one alternative plan is preferred to another for a given weighting structure on the objectives.

-A discordance index calculates the degree to which one alternative plan is dominated by another.

slide23

Applications

Concordance Analysis

-The Countries with Greater Values for Net Concordance and Less Values for Net Discordance Are Better Than the Others.

slide24

Applications

Concordance Analysis

-Alternatives (Countries) That Perform Better Than Average on Both Concordance and Discordance Are Defined as Non-dominated.

slide25

Applications

Data Envelopment Analysis

-If given DMUs, A and B, is capable of producing Y(A) and Y(B) units of output with X(A) and X(B) inputs, respectively, then other DMUs should also be able to do the same if they were to operate efficiently.

slide26

efficient frontier

OUTPUT1/INPUT

virtual DMU for C

A

C’

B

Efficiency= OC/OC’

C

O

OUTPUT2/INPUT

Applications

Data Envelopment Analysis

slide27

Applications

Partial Order Theory

Partial order theory and Hasse diagram technique appears to be a promising tool for environmental decision-making issues.

A partial order on a set P is a relation ≤ P2 that is:

reflexive (x ≤ x),

antisymmetric (x ≤ y and y ≤ x imply x = y), and

transitive (x ≤ y, and y ≤ z imply x ≤ z).

Partially Ordered Set (POSET)

slide28

Applications

Partial Order Theory

Hasse Diagram Technique (HDT)

The ranking probabilities and average ranks of the countries based on linear extensions for the partial order

slide29

Applications

Partial Order Theory

Hasse Diagram Technique (HDT)

The average rank and the ranking interval of the countries base on the partial order

slide30

Proposed Method for Modeling

Stability and Sustainability

Definition. A system is called sustainable, if it is dynamically stable and non-chaotic, subject to the constraints (standards, tolerance levels, thresholds, etc.) levied upon its components (which in our case are EES components).

slide31

Proposed Method for Modeling

Chaos

Nonlinearity

Sensitivity to the parameters

Self-similarity

Deterministic

slide32

Proposed Method for Modeling

An Example: Predator Prey Model

slide33

Proposed Method for Modeling

An Example: Predator Prey Model

Bifurcation diagram (T vs. β) for α=1.0, μ=0.6, δ=0.5.

slide34

Proposed Method for Modeling

An Example: Predator Prey Model

“Policy space” for the system in which the system is stable, when μ=0.1

slide35

Conclusions

  • SD Is a Qualitative Value.
  • Transport Plays a Key Role in SD Studies.
  • Quantification Attempts:
  • Assessment / Modeling
  • Elasticity Is a More Comprehensive Indicator
slide36

Conclusions

PERSPECTIVE

INDICES

ISSUES

Level of interpretation, analysis and aggregation

INDICATORS

ANALYSED DATA

PRIMARY DATA

DETAIL

slide37

Conclusions

  • Multi-Criteria Approaches Are Useful Tools in the SD Assessments.
  • A Dynamical Definition of SD Can Be a Useful Method for Policy Making.
slide38

Thank you

The End