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Methods for Measuring Emigration. Emigration. Positive and negative effects Data sources and measurement 2004 Tunisian Census example. Possible Positive Effects. Reduction of unemployment and stress on public services and infrastructure in country of origin
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Emigration • Positive and negative effects • Data sources and measurement • 2004 Tunisian Census example
Possible Positive Effects • Reduction of unemployment and stress on public services and infrastructure in country of origin • Increase of income and standard of living of out-migrants and non-migrant household members (via remittances) • Increase of trade and transnational relations through diaspora networks • Return migrants bring back skills and resources acquired abroad
Possible Negative Effects • Leaves behind an older population (outmigration of the young, highly educated, and economically active) • Outmigration of specific industries and occupations (e.g. health care), and loss of human capital (and wealth) • Depopulation, with an impact on future development, employment opportunities, public infrastructure, taxes, health care services,etc.
Possible Negative Effects, cont. • Imbalanced regional development (rapid urbanization, depopulation in rural areas, etc.) • Dependency on remittances, aka “Dutch Disease” • Impact of remittances on the value of local currency, and its effect on trade
Measurement • Emigration is extremely difficult to measure • In lieu of complete registration data, there are four methods of estimation • residual methods in countries of origin • survey questions in countries of origin about persons living abroad • consular (or similar) data in countries of destination • migration data from destination countries
Residual Methodology, aka Intercensal Cohort-Component Method • “Simplest” way to measure emigration • Population is counted at two points in time (using the same data source, usually a Census), and any difference in population size not attributable to births or deaths is due to net migration. • Accurate birth and death rates needed • Each Census (data source) needs to have extremely similar coverage.
Residual Methodology, cont. • For a high emigration country, improved coverage from one Census to the next might underestimate true levels of emigration, as the population count might be larger due to improved coverage, not a lower level of net emigration. • This method gives no information about characteristics of emigrants (e.g. education) or the size of the flows (in and out).
Surveys • Ask questions in origin country (e.g. Census or household survey) about household members, former household members, or relatives living abroad. • Can collect information about countries of destination and migrant characteristics (age, sex, occupation, education, etc.). • Indirect estimation method: Mothers asked about all children living abroad (or about place of residence of brothers and sisters), and then estimation techniques used to calculate emigration.
Surveys, Cons • Miss complete households who have moved out of the country, thus will not be in sample • How to weight responses (sample surveys) • Potential problems of duplicate responses (particularly if asking about relatives -less of a problem in a sample survey-)
Consular Data • Some consulates collect information on citizens living abroad (e.g. South Africa, Tunisia, USA). • Registration is usually not compulsory, and are not used for statistical purposes, but rather in case of emergency evacuations. • Severely undercounts the actual number of citizens living abroad, and are admittedly poor sources of data for measuring emigration.
Data Exchange • Using data from destination countries to estimate native emigration/diaspora • Dependent on data quality issues in countries of destination, and will vary greatly from country to country • Coverage issues still exist • Dual citizens are usually only counted as nationals of their country of destination (using country of birth avoids this problem, but scarcer). • Data accessibility (public data might not have level of disaggregation needed, or characteristics like education) • Data sharing mechanisms needed
Alternative Emigration Data Sources • Private employment agencies often maintain databases on the number of jobs applied for by specific sectors and salaries (underestimates) • Bi-lateral country projects matching worker skills with employer needs might have databases • Social Security agency responsible for administering social security pensions for workers. If... • regularly maintained • migrant workers worked under formal employment schemes
Using the Census as a Tool to Measure Emigration • Not a complete count • But can still provide useful information
Possible Questions to be Addressed • How many nationals/previous residents are living abroad? • What are their main countries of destination • How long have emigrants been absent from their country of origin? • What are their main reasons for moving abroad? • What is their social-demographic profile? • Do they intend to return to their country of origin? • Do they have economic ties with their original household?
Tunisia used a special module for household members who left the country during a period before the census
Tunisia: Census Module for Emigrants Target group: Persons who at the time of the census: • Had lived abroad for 6 months or longer • Had been members of the nuclear family 5 years prior to the census Respondents: Nuclear family members (spouse and unmarried children)
Tunisia: Census Module for Emigrants Questions asked: • Socio-demographic characteristics: sex, date and country of birth, country of citizenship • Relationship to reference person • Date of emigration • Reason for move • Country of destination
Q. VII.a Emigration: Is there a parent actually residing abroad who is member of a family nucleus and was residing within the household in April 1999 ? YES - NO
Tunisian emigrants by age group and sex,April 1999 – April 2004 Source: Institut National de la Statistique, Tunisia, 2006
Tunisian immigrants and emigrants bymain reason of migration, April 1999 – April 2004 Source: Institut National de la Statistique, Tunisia, 2006
How Tunisian data compared data to that of destination countries Note: * data from Italy did not cover minors
Lessons Learned Data collection worked well for emigrants who: • Had left the country in the years just before the census (up to 5 yrs.) • Are more likely to keep close ties with their country • Are members of the family nucleus that is left behind (e.g. Tunisian males)
