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Forecasting Greenhouse Gases in Ireland: ESRI's Comprehensive Analysis

Explore the forecasting models utilized by ESRI to predict greenhouse gas emissions in Ireland, including parameters, methodologies, and comparisons of projections. Discover the integration of energy models into macroeconomic forecasts and key policy implications.

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Forecasting Greenhouse Gases in Ireland: ESRI's Comprehensive Analysis

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  1. Forecasting Greenhouse Gases:Ireland John Fitz Gerald The Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin www.esri.ie

  2. Introduction • National Climate Change Strategy (NCCS) - 2000 • ESRI Draft Revisions - September 2001 • Models Used Today • Parameters • Comparison of Projections • Responsibilities

  3. Models Used • HERMES-Ireland • Macro-economic model - used • Energy sub-model - to be included • DEMOG - Demographic model • Household numbers - used • Energy sub-model - used • Methodology is being developed • TEAGASC agriculture - developing

  4. Procedure • Macro-economic environment • Relate it to demographic change • Migration and Households • Model energy demand • Emissions • Model cattle numbers • Emissions

  5. Developing the Model • Need to include feedback to macro-economy • Energy use reaction to price changes and other policies - elasticities • Models of electricity and other sectors • Feedback effects on macro-economy • Affects prices, wages, competitiveness, GNP • Needs integration of energy model into macroeconomic model

  6. Assumptions - Autumn 2001

  7. Birth Rate

  8. Population Structure, 2001

  9. Relative GNP

  10. Cars per person aged 15-64

  11. Model Publication • HERMES - various journals • ESRI Medium-Term Review: • Macro-economic forecasts • Energy Sub-Model • ESRI Working Paper • National Climate Change Strategy, 2000

  12. Policies and Measures • ESRI Without Measures - unchanged policies • Includes expanded deployment of wind • Agenda 2000 reform of agriculture • Looking at quantifying policy measures, e.g. • Fuel substitution in electricity • Taxes and tradable permits • Quantification - needs model development

  13. Comparison of Forecasts • National Climate Change Strategy (NCCS) - 2000 • ESRI - 2001(ESRI) • EU Sectoral Objectives - 2002 (EU) • Some problems on definitions • Ignoring sinks

  14. Source of all GHG Emissions Source: Environmental Protection Agency

  15. Greenhouse Gas Projections

  16. Comparison of Forecasts No change in policy, Comparison with 1990, %

  17. Responsibilities • Department of the Environment (DOELG) • Official energy balances / projections • Department of Public Enterprise • Official GHG projections & IPCC methodology • the Environmental Protection Agency • Socio-economic / energy projections • Assisted by the ESRI • Expertise: • ESRI - CO2 from Combustion

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