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Forecasting Greenhouse Gases: Ireland

Forecasting Greenhouse Gases: Ireland. John Fitz Gerald The Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin www.esri.ie. Introduction. National Climate Change Strategy (NCCS) - 2000 ESRI Draft Revisions - September 2001 Models Used Today Parameters Comparison of Projections

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Forecasting Greenhouse Gases: Ireland

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  1. Forecasting Greenhouse Gases:Ireland John Fitz Gerald The Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin www.esri.ie

  2. Introduction • National Climate Change Strategy (NCCS) - 2000 • ESRI Draft Revisions - September 2001 • Models Used Today • Parameters • Comparison of Projections • Responsibilities

  3. Models Used • HERMES-Ireland • Macro-economic model - used • Energy sub-model - to be included • DEMOG - Demographic model • Household numbers - used • Energy sub-model - used • Methodology is being developed • TEAGASC agriculture - developing

  4. Procedure • Macro-economic environment • Relate it to demographic change • Migration and Households • Model energy demand • Emissions • Model cattle numbers • Emissions

  5. Developing the Model • Need to include feedback to macro-economy • Energy use reaction to price changes and other policies - elasticities • Models of electricity and other sectors • Feedback effects on macro-economy • Affects prices, wages, competitiveness, GNP • Needs integration of energy model into macroeconomic model

  6. Assumptions - Autumn 2001

  7. Birth Rate

  8. Population Structure, 2001

  9. Relative GNP

  10. Cars per person aged 15-64

  11. Model Publication • HERMES - various journals • ESRI Medium-Term Review: • Macro-economic forecasts • Energy Sub-Model • ESRI Working Paper • National Climate Change Strategy, 2000

  12. Policies and Measures • ESRI Without Measures - unchanged policies • Includes expanded deployment of wind • Agenda 2000 reform of agriculture • Looking at quantifying policy measures, e.g. • Fuel substitution in electricity • Taxes and tradable permits • Quantification - needs model development

  13. Comparison of Forecasts • National Climate Change Strategy (NCCS) - 2000 • ESRI - 2001(ESRI) • EU Sectoral Objectives - 2002 (EU) • Some problems on definitions • Ignoring sinks

  14. Source of all GHG Emissions Source: Environmental Protection Agency

  15. Greenhouse Gas Projections

  16. Comparison of Forecasts No change in policy, Comparison with 1990, %

  17. Responsibilities • Department of the Environment (DOELG) • Official energy balances / projections • Department of Public Enterprise • Official GHG projections & IPCC methodology • the Environmental Protection Agency • Socio-economic / energy projections • Assisted by the ESRI • Expertise: • ESRI - CO2 from Combustion

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