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  1. Securitization of Catastrophe Risk:A USAA Example Presentation to: The CAS Seminar on Financial Risk Management April 12, 1999 Presented by: Rhonda K. Aikens Executive Director, Financial Actuary USAA

  2. Objective of Briefing To summarize the Residential Re transaction and its implications for USAA, the P&C Insurance Industry and investors.

  3. How will USAA insulate itself from the next mega-hurricane?

  4. Hurricane Andrew made landfall in South Dade County Florida devastating Homestead Air Force Base.

  5. Industry $16,500,000,000 USAA $600,000,000 1992 Hurricane Andrew

  6. Miami 40 miles north A storm the size of Andrew just 40 mi. north would have resulted in insured losses of over $50 billion HAFB

  7. Exposure to Mega-HurricaneEstimated U.S. Insured Losses (1/500 Yr.) $21 Billion Hurricane Northeast Region $17 Billion Hurricane Southeast Region $22 Billion Hurricane Houston-Galveston $76 Billion Hurricane Florida Region Source: Risk Management Solutions, Inc.; Insurance Services Office, Inc.

  8. Strategic Challenge:Industry Perspective • Since 1989, a series of natural disasters has resulted in variability in insurance losses. • Prior to Hurricane Hugo, the insurance industry had never suffered losses from a single disaster over $1 Billion. • Since then, 11 natural disasters have exceeded this amount. • Traditional reinsurance mechanisms are limited in capacity. • Recent events have caused the insurance industry to reconsider its approach in handling low frequency, high severity occurrences. • The questions have centered around the following: • What steps can we take toreduce losses from future disasters? • What steps can we take to reduce variability in insurer results from future disasters?

  9. Strategic Challenge:USAA Perspective • Serving members who live in catastrophe-prone areas requires maintenance of a high level of capitalization and liquidity. • If such exposures could be mitigated, then transferred or separately securitized, USAA could more efficiently deploy its capital resources.

  10. Options Considered By USAA To Address The Strategic Challenge • Expanded Traditional Reinsurance • Catastrophe Bonds • Catastrophe Options • Surplus Notes and Contingent Surplus Notes • Contingent Equity • Catastrophe Swaps

  11. Surplus Notes Reinsurance Contingent Surplus Notes Cat Bonds Contingent Equity CBOT Risk Transfer No Yes PML No Yes Surplus Yes Yes Liquidity Yes Yes Balance Sheet Yes * Yes Options’ Issue: Financing vs. Hedging Financing Hedging Instrument Impact on: * Contingent type can be kept off balance sheet until exercised.

  12. Permanence Reinsurance Markets Security Risk Transfer R USAA Capital Markets Cost Capacity - Competitive. - Financially Strong. - Highly Rated. - No regulatory concerns. USAA Preferred Hedging Strategy

  13. Moral Hazard C r e d i t R i s k Basis Risk Hedging Design Field Re- insurance C. B. O. T. Cat Bond Index Cat Bond Indemnity Source: “Financial Risk Management For Catastrophes”- Neil Doherty

  14. Capital Market Contracts:Index vs. Indemnity Approaches Index Approach 1. Index based payment 2. Speculative 3. May/may not transfer risk 4. Basis risk 5. Accounted as investment 6. Low transaction cost 7. Very small capacity Indemnity Approach 1. Actual loss based payment 2. Non-speculative 3. Risk transfer 4. No basis risk 5. Accounted as reinsurance 6. Transaction cost material 7. Medium capacity for now

  15. Selected Hedging Instruments • Expanded Traditional Reinsurance • Catastrophe Bonds

  16. Characteristics OfCatastrophe Bonds • Rated security • Renewable process • Supplement to traditional reinsurance • Objective risk assessment • Potentially attractive to investors

  17. Special Purpose Reinsurer How it Works Company Reinsurance Reg 114 Trust Account SPR To secure obligations under the Reinsurance Agreement Premium Investor

  18. The Reinsurance Agreement • Obligates Residential Reinsurance to pay USAA for the claims in the layer between $1.0 billion and $1.5 billion resulting from a single Class 3, 4 or 5 hurricane in the Covered States during a 12 month claims period. • USAA will retain not less than 10% of the risk.

  19. Catastrophe Bond Transaction Timeline June 1, 1999 - Dec 1, 1999 June 15, 1998 - May 31, 1999 Extended Claims Period Risk Period Dec 1 June 1 June 1 Dec 1 Typical Hurricane Season

  20. Key Issues Encountered • Federal Tax • SPR off-shore • Debt vs. equity interest • Regulatory • Recognition that investors are not in the business of insurance • Securities • Public vs. private offering • Bond Structure • Principal at risk vs. principal protected • Single year vs. multi-year transaction

  21. The Investor’s Perspective

  22. Why Do I Buy? • Increase Yield • Reduce Portfolio Variability

  23. What Do I Need To Know? Questions that need to be answered from Investor’s Perspective • How do I assess the risk ? • How credible is the risk assessment ? • When do I feel that I have become educated enough to buy ? • Is this the first transaction of this kind? • Is there a pipeline of future deals to further increase diversification ? • Why have they bypassed the reinsurance market ? • Can I afford to lose all my principal ? • What are the regulatory impacts (especially for life insurers and pensions funds) ? • Isn’t one year too short; wouldn’t a multi-year commitment improve the utility of this instrument ?

  24. Who Are The Investors? Bottom line: 90 - 95% of the money is new to the P&C Insurance Industry. This is “found money”; capital that would never have been applied to the problem of catastrophe protection through either investment in primary insurers or reinsurers.

  25. Categories Of Investors:This is a Global Market • Life Insurers • Pension Funds • Reinsurers • Hedge Funds • Banks • Investment Advisors

  26. Wall Street Journal June 18, 1997

  27. Even Nature Can Be Turned Into a Security High Yield and Big Risk With Catastrophe Bonds THE NEW YORK TIMES AUGUST 6, 1997

  28. Observations • Traditional reinsurance capacity is plentiful, but limited. • Capital markets offer the potential to supply additional capacity. • USAA’s success in renewing its transaction at reduced cost is evidence that: 1. Securitization of catastrophe risk on a large scale is possible and sustainable. 2. Improving efficiency and cost is also possible; multi-year transaction could help in this regard. Note: There have been about 21 capital market risk transfer securitizations to date.

  29. ObservationsContinued • Growth of capital markets reinsurance will be slow due to: 1. Lack of expertise, basis risk/low risk transfer/speculative nature of investment, accounting and regulatory restrictions (index options) 2. High transactions costs, tax issues/offshore nature, need for more investor education (indemnity catastrophe bonds) 3. Soft traditional reinsurance market with large capacity and declining reinsurance prices. • Significant growth in capital market reinsurance will require: 1. Addressing the issues mentioned above. 2. NAIC adopting changes to support securitization of insurance. 3. Changes at the Federal level and removal of tax disincentives so these SPR transactions can take place on-shore.

  30. Conclusion • This pioneering (and now renewed), mutually beneficial transaction fulfills the strategic purposes of: • Tapping into the vast pool of capital for capacity. • Introducing a new asset class which supplements reinsurance. • Providing a vehicle for investors to increase yield,while reducing portfolio risk through diversification.

  31. Insulating USAAfrom theFinancial Impactof aMega-Catastrophe