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Current status of ongoing seasonal adjustment activities

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  1. Rosa Ruggeri Cannata Current status of ongoing seasonal adjustment activities www.ec.europa.eu/euroindicators Eurostat - Unit D1 Key Indicators for European Policies

  2. Introduction • Attention on harmonisation of SA practices for PEEIs and infra-annual statistics • Revitalisation of the Seasonal Adjustment Steering Group • Methodological changes in NA (chain-linking) • Reconvention of the Task Force on Seasonal Adjustment of Quarterly National Accounts

  3. Ongoing SA initiatives - Outline • Seasonal Adjustment Steering Group (joint with ECB DG Statistics) • Task Force on Seasonal Adjustment of Quarterly National Accounts (joint with ECB DG Statistics) • Training activities • Improving Demetra

  4. Seasonal Adjustment Steering Group • Co-chaired by ECB DG Statistics and Eurostat • Composed by delegates from 8 Member States, both from NSIs and NCBs • First meeting 14th February, Luxembourg • Subgroup on ESS SA guidelines • Subgroup on metadata template • Next meeting 11th July Frankfurt

  5. Task Force on SA of Quarterly National Accounts (1) • Co-chaired by ECB DG Statistics and Eurostat • Composed by delegates 19 Member States, from NSIs, NCBs and Wifo • First meeting - 15th February, Luxembourg • Previous TF final report: 10 recommendations identified for review/amendment • Subgroup to analyse different aspects of three chain-linking techniques currently used in European countries

  6. Task Force on SA of Quarterly National Accounts (2) • Questionnaire run successfully on chain-linking practices • Second meeting 23th-24th April, Frankfurt • Discussion of the three papers on chain-linking techniques • Discussion of an empirical study on calendar and seasonal factors of some NA components • Creation of a group to draft a detailed paper about chain-linking effects on the correction of calendar adjustments

  7. Other activities • Demetra: • Recently improved in order to incorporate recent versions of X-12-Arima and TRAMO-SEATS engines • X-12-Arima and TRAMO-SEATS on equal footing • Training activities • ESTP training in Luxembourg, 11th-15th June with the participation of David Findley, Agustin Maravall and Dominique Ladiray

  8. Future Work • Finalise ESS SA guidelines and present them to the CMFB and the SPC • Reflection has started on Demetra: • Procedural or modular underlying architecture? • Open source implementation language?

  9. Thank you for your attention