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Demographic Trends Affecting Cities

Demographic Trends Affecting Cities. Population Change. Outline. Trends Implications for cities Checklist for cities Information resources. Trends. Minnesota continues to grow 1 million more people by 2030; 2 million more by 2060

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Demographic Trends Affecting Cities

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  1. Demographic Trends Affecting Cities Population Change

  2. Outline • Trends • Implications for cities • Checklist for cities • Information resources

  3. Trends • Minnesota continues to grow • 1 million more people by 2030; 2 million more by 2060 • Midwest neighbors and other cold weather states seeing population declines

  4. Trends Minnesota population growth through 2060 State Demographer projection

  5. Trends • 2000-2005 population growth • 7 of 13 metro counties in fastest 100 growing of the nation • 40% of state’s population lives in metro suburbs; 57% of 2000-05 growth • 34% of state’s population lives in greater MN; only 13% of 2000-05 growth

  6. Trends Suburbs and collar counties account for less than half of population but 77% of growth Met Council and State Demographer estimates.

  7. Trends • Regional trends projected through 2030: • Twin Cities will grow by 800,000 • 32% more people will live in central lakes region—mostly older adults • Central lakes region only region to see significant growth in residents under 19 • North and northwest regions will grow by 14%, reversing long trend of no growth • In south and southwest regions, the only population growth will be among residents over 65

  8. Implications for Cities • Cities with no growth or population loss • School closures • Business closures; job losses • Declining tax base • Less investment in infrastructure • No new services • Pressure to find new ways to deliver services • Difficulty filling elected and appointed positions

  9. Implications for Cities • Cities expecting growth: • New demand for services and infrastructure • New kinds of service needs depending on changing population (e.g. more older residents, more ethnic diversity) • Finding fair distribution of burden for paying for growth among new and old residents

  10. Implications for Cities • Density issues • Trends of people moving to low-density areas (e.g. lakes areas) • Cost of service delivery can be higher in low-density areas • Urban-style development in formerly low-density areas increases pressure for expanding infrastructure and services

  11. Implications for Cities • City employment • City employment affected by whether region is stable, growing, or shrinking in population • Declining areas will face difficulties filling vacancies • Growing cities will face competition from private sector to find new employees • Aging and ethnic diversity trend complicate employment issues

  12. Checklist for Cities • What is role of city in region • What are factors in people’s location decisions • How do we enter partnerships with other entities to provide services

  13. Checklist for Cities • What are population projections • How will role of city affect growth trend • Can we change the future • How will need and demand for services change • Can we partner with other entities to meet those demands • What are future housing needs; what type of housing will residents want

  14. Checklist for Cities • What will be impact on property values and tax base • How does size and composition of our workforce compare to future needs • What is retirement pattern of current workers • What is our workforce plan to recruit and retain staff

  15. Resources • Office of State Demographer • www.demography.state.mn.us • League of Minnesota Cities • www.lmc.org

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