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AgroCLIMsoftware tool for effective calculation of agrometeorological indicesADAGIO & COST 734 Miroslav Trnka, Petr Hlavinka, Jan Balek, Josef Eitzinger, Zdeněk Žalud, Daniela Semerádová
Motivationofthe study; StructureoftheAgroCLIM; Firstresults in theCentralEurope; PossibleimplementationofAgroCLIM in our COST action; Structure of the talk
To create comprehensive and easy to use tool for calculation of array of agrometeorological indices. • To have a tool that relies only on easily available meteorological data i.e. weather driven approach. • To serve as a complement to other approaches used at Mendel University and BOKU Wien (e.g. crop and pest dynamic models, statistical models, experiments etc.). • To provide a platform for COST 734 based studies - Intended as „open access“ software for COST 734 teams after appropriate calibration and evaluation. Motivation
Time scale Structure of the AgroCLIM Spatial scale
Central Europe – Example study • Length of growing season and sum of effective temperatures; • Potential water balance on the field level (Rainfall vs. ET0); • Number days suitable for sowing and harvesting. a) b)
Change in the length of growing season by 2050 • Prolongation of the vegetation season by 20-30 days. • The rate of the change 30-50% higher in sites above 500 m. • The prolongation of the season will be more less symmetrical.
Longer vegetation season by 25-30 days. • Shortening of the period with snow cover occurrence and risk of frost by 25-30 days. • Mean duration of the frost season is likely to decrease. • Probability of frosts damage in extreme years is likely to increase due to longer nights.. Change in the timing of agrometeorological periods
Change in the field scale water balance • Significant increase of water deficit even at cold climate region. • Marked change during key period for crop development (i.e. April – June = AMJ). • The deficit in AMJ will increase by 30 and 40 mm with more pronounced change in the cold region.
Change in the snow cover and frost risk • Decrease of number of days with full snow cover by 40-50%. • More pronounced change at lowland sites. • The occurrence of days with high potential for the frost damage will decrease at cool region and increase in cold region. • No significant change of the risk is expected for the warm region.
Change in number of days suitable for sowing • Number of days suitable for sowing on medium soils will increase by 10-15% during fall and 4-12% during spring. • Early sowing will be enhanced especially in warm region. • Cool and cold region will have to still rely on later sowing dates.
Change in number of days suitable for harvest • Proportion of days suitable for harvesting will increase especially in case of cold region (6-10%). • The June weather will remain relatively unfavorable for harvest. • This pose a potential problem for farmers under the changed climate due to expected shifts of harvest dates to earlier terms.
Implementation of AgroCLIMin COST 734 • Ideally we will have stations representing all Environmental zones • Covering at least 15-20 countries. • Using stations in the main agricultural region of each COST member state. • Compatible with the first assessment o the WG4 group.