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Campaigns and Elections

9/15/2010. Campaigns and Elections. Step-by-Step on the Campaign Trail How the President Gets Elected. NOV. 6, 2012. SPRING/FALL 2011. SUMMER 2012. EARLY DEC, 2012. JAN-MAY 2012. JAN 20, 2012. Function of the Election. Choose over 500,000 public roles Contest between political parties

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Campaigns and Elections

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  1. 9/15/2010 Campaigns and Elections

  2. Step-by-Step on the Campaign TrailHow the President Gets Elected NOV. 6, 2012 SPRING/FALL 2011 SUMMER 2012 EARLY DEC, 2012 JAN-MAY 2012 JAN 20, 2012

  3. Function of the Election • Choose over 500,000 public roles • Contest between political parties • Winner-take-all – the person with the most votes wins (don’t need over 50%) FPTP • Plurality • Single-member districts – one rep per district • Third parties can’t break in

  4. Why it’s hard to beat incumbents

  5. 2008 COATTAIL EFFECT

  6. 2010

  7. 2010

  8. MEDIA

  9. INCUMBENTS GET FREE AIRTIME

  10. PARTY AFFILIATION

  11. From their website… • General Campaign Consulting Services • Kaufman Campaigns provides a broad range of consulting and political campaign services to clients throughout California. • Strategic Planning and Game Plan Development • Preparing Initiatives for the Ballot • Message Development • Radio and Television Advertising • Targeted Mail • Graphic and Web Design • Grassroots Organizing • Day-to-Day Campaign Operations • Community Outreach • Earned Media • Polling/Surveys/Focus Groups • Opposition Research • Budget Planning CAMPAIGN CONSULTANTS

  12. From the Center for Public Integrity…

  13. House House "Since 1914, incumbent U.S. senators running for reelection have won about 78 percent of the time," ACCESS TO FUND$

  14. NAME RECOGITION

  15. The best Harry Potter movie is… • Sorcerer’s Stone • Prisoner of Azkaban • Goblet of Fire • Order of the Phoenix • Half-Blood Prince

  16. The best Harry Potter movie is… • Sorcerer’s Stone • Prisoner of Azkaban • Goblet of Fire • Order of the Phoenix • Half-Blood Prince

  17. Each state holds a primary or caucusbetween January and June to determine candidates for parties FRONTLOADING

  18. SUPER TUESDAY

  19. Candidates then enter into general elections against the other political parties

  20. More people vote in general elections. In 2004, 50% of people voted in general elections versus 25% in the primaries. PRIMARY GENERAL More ideological Why?

  21. Congressional Elections vs. Presidential Elections • Congress elections are regional • Senate by state; House by district

  22. Congressional Elections vs. Presidential Elections • House elections are less competitivethan Senate or President- why?

  23. Congressional Elections vs. Presidential Elections • Congressional elections every two years (all House up for reelection and 1/3 of the Senate) 2008 2010

  24. Congressional Elections vs. Presidential Elections cONGRESS PRESIDENT while President relies on media More turnout • Congress communicates with their constituents more directly, often personally, • Congress reps can deny responsibilityand blame problems on other reps or President • Less turnout

  25. The Center for Responsive politics calculated how the money is spent: Running for President $100,000 per day • Money

  26. Running for Congress • Incumbents have huge advantage • Franking privileges

  27. Running for Congress • Cater to distrust by public of federal gov. • “Run against Congress, not for it.” • Sophomore surge • Each Senator has 40 aides

  28. Step-by-Step on the Campaign TrailHow the President Gets Elected NOV. 6, 2012 SPRING/FALL 2011 SUMMER 2012 EARLY DEC, 2012 JAN-MAY 2012 JAN 20, 2012

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