Campaigns and Elections

Campaigns and Elections

First Time Ever… • Election of 1800: The transition from Adams to Jefferson marked the first peaceful transfer of power between parties via the electoral process in the history of the world. • No primaries, conventions, or speeches. • Campaigns focused not on voters but on state legislatures who chose electors. • Very uncivil campaign • Newspapers were partisan, rather than unbiased. • After many votes in the House, the presidency was transferred to Jefferson peacefully.

Function of the Election • Choose over 500,000 public roles • Contest between political parties • Winner-take-all – the person with the most votes wins (don’t need over 50%) • Plurality – win with the highest total of votes • Single-member districts – one representative per district EXCEPTION: Presidential candidates MUST get 270 electoral votes to win (a Majority)

Function of the Election (continued) • Institutionalize political activity – Make it possible for most political participation to be channeled through the electoral process. • Regular access to political power – Leaders can be replaced. • Legitimacy – Fair and free way of selecting political leaders.

Compared to Others U.S. Presidential Elections Most Other Democracies Elections usually last no more than two months as determined by law or custom. • Unofficially start up to two years before the actual election • Debates are scheduled in the fall preceding the primary season • “Primary Season” begins in January of the election year, runs through June • Conventions are held in late summer, followed by the campaign, and finally the election

3 Kinds of Elections • Primary elections or Caucuses– Voters select party nominees. • General elections – Between the nominees of the parties. • Elections on specific policy questions – Voters make (initiative petition) or ratify (referendum) legislation.

Primary Elections • Presidential primaries are elections in which a state’s voters go to the polls to express their preference for a party’s nominee for president. • Frontloading – Recent tendency of states to hold primaries early in the calendar to capitalize on media attention. • money plays too big a role • participation is low and unrepresentative of the mainstream electorate • too much power goes to the media

Types of Primaries • Open Primary – Voters can decide on election day whether they want to vote for Democratic or Republican candidates • Closed Primary – Voters must decide which party candidates they will vote for by a set time prior to the primary • (Pennsylvania, for example) • Blanket Primary – Voters can split tickets, declared unconstitutional in this form.

Caucuses • At one time, all states selected their delegates to the national convention in a meeting of state party leaders, called a caucus. • Today, caucuses are open to all voters who are registered with the party. • Voters must show up at a set time and attend an open meeting to express their presidential preference. • Only a minority of states hold caucuses today, and the earliest caucus is traditionally held in Iowa. • Caucuses are usually organized like a pyramid.

Campaigns • Deciding to Run • A presidential candidacy in the United States needs to be either announced or an “open secret” for at least a year before the election. • Barack Obama made clear his intention to run for president in January 2007. • A “national presence” is important.

Campaigns • Organizing the Campaign • Get a campaign manager, a fund-raiser, and a campaign counsel. • Hire media and campaign consultants. • Assemble staff, plan logistics, and get research staff, policy advisors, pollsters, and a good press secretary. • Establish a website.

Campaigns • The High-Tech Media Campaign • Direct mail used to generate support and money for candidate. • Get media attention through ad budget and free news coverage. • The emphasis is on marketing a candidate because news stories focus more on the horse race than substantive policy issues. • Recent developments in very narrowly targeted ad buys to reach specific voter groups.

Campaigns • Campaigns have three effects on voters. • Reinforcement – Reinforce voters’ preferences for candidates. • Activation – Voters contribute money or ring doorbells. • Conversion – Convert, changing voters’ minds.

Campaigns • Some factors tend to weaken campaigns’ impact on voters. • Selective perception – Most people pay attention to things they agree with and interpret events according to predispositions. • Party identification influences voting behavior.

Federal Election Reform Act of 1974 • Created Federal Election Commission • Provided public financing for major party presidential candidates in primaries and general elections • Required full disclosure of campaign contributions • Limited individual contributions to $1000 to candidates

Buckley v. Valeo (1976) • Struck down the limits placed on the amount of money individuals could contribute to his/her own campaign by the Federal Election Reform Act of 1974 • Established that contributing to one’s own campaign is a form of protected free speech.

Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002 • a.k.a. McCain-Feingold Act (2002) • Bans soft money • Increased amount of individual contributions to $2000 (increases every year – inflation index) • Prohibited ads that mentioned candidates within 30 days of a primary and 60 days of a general election • This part was overturned by Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission (2010) • Soft Money – Contributions to political parties for party building expenses or generic party advertising; was not subject to contribution limits prior to BCRA.

PACs • Political Action Committees are funding vehicles (created by the 1974 campaign finance reforms) that may give up to $5000 to a candidate in both primary and general elections and $15,000 to a political party each year. • A corporation, union, or some other interest group can create a political action committee (PAC) and register it with the Federal Election Commission. • PACs donate to candidates who support their issues. • PACs do not buy candidates, but give to candidates who support them in the first place.

Loopholes, of course… • 527 Groups – They ARE NOT regulated • Independent, tax exempt groups that seek to influence the political process, but are not subject to contribution limits because they do not directly contribute to or coordinate with specific candidates or political parties. • The name 527 Groups comes from Section 527 of the federal tax code by which they are governed. • Ex – Swift Boat Veterans for Truth (2004)

Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission (2010) • The conservative lobbying group Citizens United wanted to air a film critical of Hillary Clinton and to advertise the film during television broadcasts in apparent violation of the 2002 Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act (aka McCain–Feingold Act or "BCRA"). • In a 5–4 decision, the Court held that portions of BCRA violated the First Amendment, so the Court overturned sections of the BCRA that had prohibited corporate & union political expenditures in political campaigns. • The Supreme Court held that $$$ = political speech

Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission (2010) • Citizens United made it legal for corporations & unions to spend from their general treasuries to finance independent expenditures related to campaigns, but did not alter the prohibition on direct corporate or union contributions to federal campaigns • Organizations seeking to contribute directly to federal candidate campaigns or poiltical parties must still rely on traditional PACs for that purpose

Super PACs • Arose after Citizens United, known as "independent-expenditure only committees" • May not make contributions to candidate campaigns or parties, but may engage in unlimited political spending independent of the campaigns (can’t coordinate efforts) • Unlike traditional PACs, they can raise funds from individuals, corporations, unions and other groups, without any legal limit on donation size

Trending Up… • 1976: $171 Million total • 1884: $202 Million total • 1992: $331.1 Million total • 2000: $528.9 Million total • 2004: $880.5 Million total • 2008 • Obama: $730,000,000 • McCain: $333,000,000 • 2012 • Obama: $715,677,692 • Blue Team Total: $1,107,080,937 • Romney: $446,135,997 • Red Team Total: $1,238,072,571

Too Expensive? • The Center for Responsive Politics estimated in 2008 that the contests for the presidency and Congress cost over $5 billion. • By comparison, we spend $18 billion dollars each year on specialty coffee  • Doctrine of sufficiency – Spend enough money to get a message across to compete effectively.

Presidential Election Process • Each state holds a primary or caucus between January and June to choose from a field of candidates • State parties choose delegates to attend the convention for each of the candidates • The delegates and super delegates will vote at the parties’ conventions to determine which of the candidates will be nominated to run in the general election • “regular” delegates are bound by the results of their state’s primary

Delegate Selection • The Democratic Party began to reform its delegate selection procedures after a highly conflicted national convention in 1968 • McGovern-Fraser Commission – In response to demands for reform by minority groups and others seeking better representation. • Super-delegates – Party leaders automatically get delegate slot at national party convention. • Super-delegates ARE NOT bound by primary votes…a fail safe.

The Convention • Conventions are generally held in the late summer • “Up and Comers” often get to speak at conventions gaining exposure for a future in national politics • Most years, there is no mystery as to who the nominee will be due to the early results of the primaries

The Convention • Conventions serve 3 main functions: • They formally name the party’s presidential and vice-presidential candidates • The adopt a party platform • A platform is the party’s coherent set of goals and policies for the next four years • The convention serves a “pep rally” to unify the party and generate positive publicity and momentum heading into the general election

Post-Convention • Candidates then enter into general elections against the other political parties. • Voters elect electors. • More people vote in general elections than primaries. In most years, ~50% of people voted in general elections versus ~25% in the primaries (voters are more ideological).

Electoral College • A unique American institution, created by the Constitution, providing for the selection of the president by electors. • Less populated states are overrepresented. • Winner-take-all concentrates campaigns on close states.

How the Electoral College Works • Electoral votes for each state equals its members in Congress. • 48 states use winner-take-all system (not Maine and Nebraska). • State electors vote in December following the November election. • January – Congress counts votes. • House of Representatives picks president if no majority vote.

Important Electoral College Tidbits • The less populated states are overrepresented because states get 2 electors for the senators regardless of population. • In the 2012 election, 7 states & DC had 3 electoral votes each; California had 55… • Winner-take-all means candidates will focus on winning the states where the polls show that there appears to be a close contest (Battleground States). • It also means that 3rd Party candidates have almost no chance of winning.

Congressional Elections vs. Presidential Elections • Congress elections are regional • Senate by state; House by district • Gerrymandering only helps the House. • Congressional elections every two years (all House up for reelection and 1/3 of the Senate) • Fewer people vote in “off-year” or “midterm year” (only 36%) which means voters are more activist or ideological

Apportionment of Seats • States gain or lose representatives based on the census taken every ten years. • If there is a change, then reapportionment takes place and districts are redrawn. • Gerrymandering is reapportionment done to insure that one party wins the maximum number of seats in the House. • Malapportionmentis gerrymandering that violates the rules.

Congressional Elections vs. Presidential Elections • The Incumbency Advantage • House elections are less competitive than Senate or President • Incumbents – (already hold office) , 80 to 90% of representatives typically win reelection. • We hate Congress, but love our Congressman! • Even 75% of incumbent Senators usually win. • We will revisit this in the Congress unit – it is the number one, most commonly tested concept on released AP Government exams.

Congressional Elections vs. Presidential Elections Coattail effect - Presidential popularity effecting congressional elections in midterm years • Congress communicates with their constituents more directly, often personally, while President relies on media • Congress reps can deny responsibility and blame problems on other reps or President

Campaigns and Elections