Big Picture: Drought Early Warning and the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) Michael Hayes, Director National Drought Mitigation Center School of Natural Resources University of Nebraska-Lincoln Photo: NRCS, Western Oklahoma, June 2011
2011 Billion Dollar Disasters • Groundhog Day Blizzard, 1/29 – 2/3 • Tornadoes, 4/4-5 • Tornadoes, 4/8-11 • Tornadoes, 4/14-16 • Tornadoes, 4/25-30 • Tornadoes, 5/22-27 • Drought, fires, heatwave, spring, summer, fall • Mississippi River flooding, spring and summer • Upper Midwest flooding, summer and fall • Hurricane Irene, 8/27-29 • 89 Presidential Disaster Declarations
Billion Dollar DisastersNCDC,1980-2010 DisasterEventsDamage$$/Event Hurricanes 27 367 13.6 Tornadoes 23 45 2.0 Droughts 15 185 12.3 Floods 12 68 5.7 Fires 10 19 1.9 Winter-related 12 41 3.4 Total 99 725 7.3
Drought Impacts • Drought is one of the most costly U.S. natural disasters • Texas: $5.2 billion in agricultural losses through July • Livestock $2.1 billion, Crop losses $3.1 billion • $13.1 billion in agricultural losses since 1998 • $250 million wildfire damage in Bastrop County • $4.5 million for dead tree removal in Houston • Oklahoma: more than $2 billion in agricultural losses • Kansas: more that $1.7 billion in agricultural losses • North Carolina (2010): $8.6 billion loss due to landscapers, nurseries, well drillers, irrigation companies, Christmas tree farmers
Report of the NDPCGuiding Principles of a National Drought Policy • 1. Favor “preparedness” over insurance, insurance over relief, and incentives over regulation. • 2. Set research priorities based on the potential of the research results to reduce drought impacts. • 3. Coordinate the delivery of federal services through cooperation and collaboration with nonfederal entities.
Evolution of NIDIS 2007 2004
National Integrated Drought Information System Public Law 109-430 (The NIDIS Act 2006) “Enable the Nation to move from a reactive to a more proactive approach to managing drought risks and impacts” “…better informed and more timely drought-related decisions leading to reduced impacts and costs.” www.drought.gov
NIDIS Objectives Creating a drought early warning information system: • Coordinating national drought monitoring and forecasting systems • Providing an interactive drought information clearinghouse and delivery system for products and services—including an internet portal and standardized products (databases, forecasts, Geographic Information Systems (GIS), maps, etc.) • Designing mechanisms for improving and incorporating information to support coordinated preparedness and planning
Drought and Water Resources:Federal Partnerships (States, Tribes, Urban, other) Drought and Flood ImpactsAssessments and Scenarios Monitoring & Forecasting Early Warning Information Engaging Preparedness & Adaptation Communication and Outreach
NIDIS Knowledge Assessments • Remote Sensing Contributions to Drought Monitoring • Boulder, CO, February 2008 • National Status of Drought Early Warning Systems • Kansas City, MO, June 2008 • Drought, Climate Change, and Early Warning on Western Lands • Jackson, WY, June 2009 • WGA/WSWC Workshops-NIDIS Constituencies • Washingon, DC, October 2009, April 2010, Sept. 2010 • Building a Network of Sustainable Communities • Chicago, IL, June 2011
The NIDIS U.S. Drought Portal http://drought.gov
Michael Hayes National Drought Mitigation Center email@example.com http://drought.unl.edu
Managing Drought Risk on the Ranch • Drought planning process and web-based educational resource for forage and rangeland producers • Initiated with RMA funding in 2006 • Collaborators include SDSU, TX A&M, UNL, and ranchers and advisors from SD, NE, KS, CO, TX • www.drought.unl.edu/ranchplan
Writing a Ranch Drought Plan • Drought planning process developed with input from rancher and advisor stakeholders • Interviews and participatory workshop resulted in a recommended process involving 7 planning steps • Website includes links to resources to help with drought planning, as well as sample drought plans by producers across the Great Plains
Risk Management Education for Ranchers: Drought Planning, Range Management, and FCIC Options including Pasture, Rangeland, and Forage Insurance • RMA Risk Management Education Project 10/11- 9/12 • Project Leader: Dr. Cody Knutson, NDMC • Goal: increasing ranchers’ capacity to manage drought risk, through improved understanding of: • risk management tools such as Pasture, Rangeland, and Forage Insurance, range and forage best management practices, and web-based financial and risk management tools; • the types of risk addressed by these risk management tools; and • how to make sound risk management decisions using a drought planning methodology developed by the NDMC in conjunction with Great Plains ranchers.
Risk Management Education for Ranchers Products: Workshops in KS, CO, NE; workbook based on Managing Drought Risk on the Ranch website; archived materials available online First workshop scheduled for January 21st, Emporia, KS