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An EXCEL-based software toolbox for stochastic fleet-based forecast. Per Sparre

ICES CM 2003/V:07. An EXCEL-based software toolbox for stochastic fleet-based forecast. Per Sparre Danish Institute for Fisheries Research. Department of Marine Fisheries. ICES CM 2003/V:07. An EXCEL-based software toolbox for stochastic fleet-based forecast.

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An EXCEL-based software toolbox for stochastic fleet-based forecast. Per Sparre

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  1. ICES CM 2003/V:07 An EXCEL-based software toolbox for stochastic fleet-based forecast. Per Sparre Danish Institute for Fisheries Research. Department of Marine Fisheries.

  2. ICES CM 2003/V:07 An EXCEL-based software toolbox for stochastic fleet-based forecast. Toolbox of Visual Basic routines EXCEL user-interface Mixed fisheries and assessment of the effect of management Deterministic and stochastic simulation. User-friendly software, Stand-alone ordinary ECEL-workbook Open source Visual Basic sub-routines, Can be inspected and modified by the user. The highest degree of transparency of code Comprehensive on-line help-facility and user’s manual.

  3. COMPONENTS OF THE TOOL-BOX (TEMAS *) a) ICES Prediction model (Basic model) • combined with: • b) A simple micro-economic model • c) A model of fisher’s behaviour *) TEMAS Project: Technical Measures – Development of evaluation model and application in Danish fisheries.

  4. Multi species Multi Fleet MultiArea

  5. Migration of fish

  6. Biology - Economy

  7. STOCHASTIC SIMULATION

  8. EXCEL application "TEMAS" Note: This is not a commercial for Microsoft Office. (EXCEL has bugs by the thousands, and behave strangely! - but everybody has it)

  9. Dimensions of TEMAS

  10. VISUAL BASIC OPEN SOURCE – USER FRIENDLY CODE

  11. Fleet Input

  12. Vessel - Dynamics

  13. Capacity Rules

  14. 1 Reaction to technical management measures 2 Reaction to non-technical management measures 3 Reaction to costs and prices. 4 Reaction to the range and equipment of vessels. 5 Reaction to availability of resources Trip-Related Behaviour short term Structure-Related Behaviour long term SURVEY OF BEHAVIOUR RULES IN TEMAS Reaction of fisheries advisers (ICES).

  15. Example of behaviour rule: Where to fish ? CHOICE COMPOSED OF TRADITION and CURRENT SITUATION General behaviour model: Random Utility Model Estimation procedure: General Logit model.

  16. Comparison of alternative management regimes E.g. quota management and effort management (Ulrich et al. 2002)

  17. THE END

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