Relationship between Policy-making and Foresight program in Japan

1. VIII. Bled Forum on Europe FORESIGHT CONFERENCE “GOVERNING FUTURES” Round Table on Role of Foresight in National Policy-making Relationship between Policy-making and Foresight program in Japan 2007.03.03 Kumi Okuwada Ph.D. National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (NISTEP) Japan

2. Contents • History & backgrounds of Japanese Foresight • International / Domestic Dimension • Political implications • The latest foresight in Japan • Relation between foresight and policy making • Design of multi-methodology foresight • Innovation and the foresight program • Discussion for “Innovation 25 initiative” based on results of the foresight program

3. Genealogical tree of National foresight applications

4. Structure of National Foresight Activities ・Periodical survey (Same methodology) ・A large number of respondents (Experts) ・Wide coverage of S&T fields • NISTEP • Ministries • Groups of companies • Individual companies • and research institutes

5. Generation of Technology Foresight

6. S&T Administrative Structure in Japan

7. Development of Foresight in Japan

8. A methodology obtaining consensus in future image and long-term strategy among S&T experts with repeated questionnaires Delphi Survey

9. History of Japanese Delphi Survey Experts= Respondents (2 cycles of the questionnaires)

10. Evaluation of Early Survey at 2004 1st Delphi (1971) 2nd Delphi (1976) 3rd Delphi (1981) 4th Delphi (1986)

11. International Collaboration (Japan 1992 - German 1993) Importance Realization Time

12. Relationship between S&T Policy and Foresight

13. What are “new” in the 8th program (2003-04) ? • 1. Clear Target on Client and Timing • Strong linkage with policy making process • Political Message by coupling with Review Program • Contribution to discussion for 3rd Basic Plan • 2. Multi-methodology Foresight • Improvement in Delphi and complementary three analysis • Not only Technology, but also Science and Social • Wider variety of participants • Post-foresight program

14. Two research projects conducted by NISTEP (supported by Special Coordination Funds for Promoting S&T in FY 2003-04)

15. Design of the 8th foresight program

16. Improved Delphi Survey

17. New Approaches in Delphi Survey

18. written by experts with deep insight. • normative and subjective. • schematic future image with time scale. Scenario Analysis

19. Example of Scenario : Life support robotics

20. Example of Scenario : New healthcare that meets individual needs

21. Bibliometric Analysis of rapidly-developing research areas

22. Example of RAs Proteomics

23. Procedure of Socio-economic Needs Analysis

24. “Innovation 25” initiative in Japan The policy speech of the Prime Minister Abe administration (26th Sept. 2006) "The long-term strategy initiative "Innovation 25" will be put together and executed with an eye on the year 2025 in each field of medicine, engineering, and information technology, etc. for the creation of innovation contributing to the growth." The initiative defined “Innovation” as ; Technological Improvements + New businesses New social systems/institutions

25. Discussion for “Innovation 25” initiative Based on the foresight survey below, experts take a comprehensive view of Japanese society in 2025 at meetings and workshops. - Vision of Japanese Society underpinned by technological feasibility - Needed social systems Japanese foresight survey conducted by NISTEP during ’03-’04 Survey results Experts who have deep insights into the latest technologies and their impacts on society Around 2500 experts were involved.

26. Concluding RemarksJapanese 8th foresight program • * Strong and direct linkage between foresight and policy making • - Supporting more evidence-based policy making • * Multi-methodology foresight • - Compilation of various aspects of information • * Contribution to discussion on “Innovation” • - Positive inputs as described • “Future Society through S&T developments”