Climate Data Records – A Maturity Model and Research-Operation Transitions

1. Climate Data Records –A Maturity Model andResearch-Operation Transitions John Bates NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center

2. Notional View of GPS-RO

3. GPS-RO Neumonic Device Steve Martin demonstrates GPS-RO bending angle

4. Outline • Climate Data Records (CDRs) and Principles of Scientific Data Stewardship (SDS) • CDR Example – Upper-Tropospheric Water Vapor (UTWV or UTH) • The NASA-NOAA model for research-operations transitions of CDRs • Assessing the maturity of COSMIC GPS-RO CDRs UTWV R-O COSMIC

5. Principles of Scientific Data Stewardship • Develop archive stewardship to preserve information content of raw data stream, • Process large volumes of satellite data extending up to decades in length to account for systematic errors and to eliminate artifacts in the raw data (referred to as fundamental climate data records, FCDRs), • Generate retrieved geophysical parameters from the FCDRs (referred to as thematic climate data records TCDRs) including combining observations from all sources, • Conduct monitoring and research by analyzing data sets to conduct climate science and applied research – Toward a National Climate Service • Climate variability and change, global water, energy, carbon cycles • Societal Applications – GEOSS benefit areas – Climate Information Records (CIRs) CDRs

6. Defining CDRs Climate Data Records Data (Direct & Remotely Sensed) Time-tagged Geo-Referenced Sensor DataRecords (SDRs) CDRs Converted to Bio-Geophysical Variables Homogenization and Calibration EnvironmentalData Records(EDRs) Fundamental Climate Data Records (FCDRs) Climate Data Records or Homogenized Time Series Converted to Bio-Geophysical Variables Thematic Climate Data Records(TCDRs)

7. Upper Tropospheric Water Vapor CDR • Upper tropospheric water vapor (UTWV or UTH) channel has flown operationally since 1979 • UTWV was originally dismissed (until 1990) • Didn’t compare well with radiosondes • Spectroscopy of WV uncertain • Lindzen’s 1990 BAMS paper ‘Some coolness concerning global warming’ spurred new attention • Water vapor feedback accounts for ½ to 2/3 of total global warming in model projections UTWV

8. UTWV Long-term Intercalibration Before UTWV After

9. Becoming a CDR ‘Benchmark’ • An objective benchmark may be determined by maturity assessment • A subjective benchmark is determined by independent application of a data set to climate monitoring, forcings, or feedbacks UTWV Evidence for Strengthening of the Tropical General Circulation in the 1990s by Chen, Carlson and Del Genio

10. Thoughts on Benchmark Concept • The term Benchmark (Goody, 2001) carries particular importance in the context of long-term climate monitoring and with respect to testing the veracity of climate model predictions. The central elements in the definition of a climate Benchmark are: • Accuracy that extends over decades, or indefinitely; • Variable critical to defining long-term climate change that is observed on the global scale; • A measurement that is tied to irrefutable standards, usually with a broad laboratory base; • Observation strategy designed to reveal systematic errors through independent cross-checks, open inspection, and continuous interrogation; • Limited number of carefully selected observables, with highly confined objectives defining (a) climate forcings, (b) climate response. • Just as the concept of ‘truth’, as in ‘ground truth’ is perhaps more a religious concept, so may be the concept of benchmark • A better definition may be in the combined objective maturity measures (as above) combined with the quintessential hallmark of the scientific process – independent peer review UTWV

11. Planning Development Path R-O

12. Core Activities in CDR Evolution • Sensor calibration and characterization • Algorithm development and refinement • Continuing incubation of algorithm alternatives that may eventual replace previous “standard” • Product (Re-)Processing • Research & Operational agencies co-generate Maturity Level 3-4 products as part of transition • Assures transition readiness • Product validation and use-driven evaluation • Archive, Distribution, Documentation R-O

13. Notional Evolution of a CDR(From NASA-NOAA Climate Science Working Group)

14. Notional Evolution of GPS-RO(From Anthes et al.) • Need to map this into NASA-NOAA notional CDR evolution Gantt chart • Do we restore GPS-RO to NPOESS? R-O

15. Operational Climate Data Records –Prioritization, Production, & Productivity R-O

16. CRD Maturity Research-Operations NOAA LEAD R-O

17. Cost Estimation Approach • Notional CDR lifecycle provides schedule and activity breakdown • NASA historical cost data estimates cost/activity • Separate Research and Operational cost profiles • Algorithm maturity* determines relative year in notional CDR lifecycle • Production complexity* determines multiplier of notional cost profile • CDR “ramp-up” rate treated as independent variable • Required CDR prioritization straw man *Maturity and complexity estimates from joint agency sensor expert teams (names provided in April Panel brief) R-O

18. Complexity Serves As Multiplier of Notional Cost Profile • Factors: • Number, quality & diversity of input streams • Resolutions (vertical, horizontal, temporal, spectral) • Algorithm complexity • Algorithm outputs (#CDRs) • Cal/Val complexity and cost R-O

19. NOAA GPS-RO Work(NOAA Industry Day; Courtesy J. Yo) • NWP • On-going 3-yr Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA) development program to assimilate GPS-RO data into National Weather Service’s operational Global Forecast System (GFS) • Developed, tested, and implemented the necessary components to assimilate GPS-RO observations (refractivity and bending angle) in GFS • Forward models to simulate the observations from analysis variables, and tangent linear and adjoint models • Quality control algorithms • Error characterization models • Data handling and decoding procedures • Verification and impact evaluation procedures • Climate – Funded SDS proposal & AMS meetings • Ben Ho - UCAR Validation and Calibration of MSU/AMSU Measurements and Radiosonde Observations using GPS RO Data for Improving Stratospheric and Tropospheric Temperature Trends Analysis • NOAA GPS-RO Industry Day – January 2008 COSMIC

20. Meeting Future Needs (NOAA Industry Day; Courtesy J. Yo) • Continuity of COSMIC Mission after 2011 • Maintain gain realized for global NWP • Maintain stable calibration/validation source for Climate Data Records • Provide dense ionospheric soundings for Space WX • NWP Latency requirement drives downlink needs • Constellation Approach • Number/density of soundings ~ proportional to number of receivers • Multiple Global Navigation Satellite System Sources • GALILEO, GLONASS – also increases number of soundings • Complementing radiometric satellite soundings • Recognize that GPR-RO is a KEY PART of the solution, not the whole COSMIC

21. Summary from Industry Day (NOAA Industry Day; Courtesy J. Yo) • GSP-RO becoming established as data source for • Numerical weather prediction • Climate • Ionospheric sounding • COSMIC demonstrating benefits of small-satellite • Constellation approach to GPS-RO • Now is the time to consider how to maintain constellation capability for GPSRO after 2011 • NRC’s Decadal Survey published in early 2007; recommended follow-on GPS Radio Occultation satellite mission • New potential may exist for CDRs and climate sensors in NOAA COSMIC

22. Conclusions • The foundations of research-operations transition of satellite CDRs has begun within NOAA and NASA • NSF and NOAA should consider that work as a template for a potential GPS-RO transition • COSMIC should adopt a maturity model, assess progress on a regular basis, and encourage independent applications • How does GPS-RO ultimately fit in?

23. Backup Slides

24. CDR Maturity Matrix R-O