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Monitoring and Assessment of Climate Change Risks in the Lower Mekong River Basin

Monitoring and Assessment of Climate Change Risks in the Lower Mekong River Basin. Joint MRC- Russia Conference on the Exchange of Experiences in the Sphere of Water Resources Management 16-17 November 2015, Moscow, Russia.

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Monitoring and Assessment of Climate Change Risks in the Lower Mekong River Basin

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  1. Monitoring and Assessment of Climate Change Risks in the Lower Mekong River Basin Joint MRC- Russia Conference on the Exchange of Experiences in the Sphere of Water Resources Management 16-17 November 2015, Moscow, Russia Presented by Dr Nguyen Huong Thuy PhanProgramme Coordinator , Climate Change and Adaptation Initiative (CCAI)Officer-in-Charge, Environment Programme (EP)

  2. Lower Mekong Basin at risk, MRC to act 2007: MRC Council asked for the development of CCAI Source: IPCC 2007 Source: EEPSEA 2009

  3. Establishment of MRC Climate Change and Adaptation Initiative (CCAI) CCAI: A regional collaborative initiative to support the Member Countries in adapting to the impacts & new challenges posed by climate change, 2009-2025 2011-2015 supported by:

  4. Implications for water, food and energy in the LMB • Impacts on hydrology • Rainfall • Water balance • Impacts on hydrodynamics & morphology • Flow • Sediment Climate change Impacts on ecosystems and people livelihoods Impacts on hydropower yields and operation Impacts on agriculture, fisheries …

  5. CCAI work programme toward a Mekong Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan (MASAP) 2013-2016 2013-2015 2012-2014 2013-2015 Capacity building activities Basin-wide assessments Ecosystem Food security Floods Droughts Hydropower Climate change information, scenarios, uncertainties Assessment of impacts on flow regime Assessment of changes in climate and hydrological extremes 2015 Policy review 2012, 2014 2013-2015 2014 2013 Roundtable discussions and study visits Literature review Mekong climate change forum Capacity needs assessment 2013 2016 2013-2016 Report on status of CC and adaptation in the LMB Compilation of experiences from other international river basins Database and monitoring system 2011-2015 2014-2017 Country-run demonstration projects Mekong Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan

  6. Basin-wide monitoring of climate change and adaptation: (1) • Objectives: • monitor changes in climate, impacts and vulnerability • monitor climate change actions and performance • Spatial scope: whole LMB • Approach: indicators – based • Reporting frequency: various

  7. Basin-wide monitoring of climate change and adaptation: (2) 1. Concept and work-plan (November 2012) 2. Indicators (March 2014) - 87 indicators following DPSIR • Indicator cards • Reference periods and values 3. Methods, data collection, analysis (on-going) • Technical report describing the system • Monitoring reports • Atlas (including digital) • Volume 1: Climate Change • Volume 2: Impacts, Vulnerability, Adaptation 4. Methods piloting (on-going) 5. Reporting, refining and capacity transfer (on-going)

  8. Interactive Atlas:Historical Climate

  9. Interactive Atlas:Projected Future Climate

  10. Basin-wide assessment of climate change impacts on water and water related resources and sectors in the LMB Dec 2015 Flow, Salinity: Dec 2015 Sediment, Nutrient: Jun 2016 Sep 2015 Mar 2016 Jun 2016 Mar 2016 Jun 2016 Mar 2016 Mar 2016

  11. Initial results: impact on salinity intrusion (only climate change) Low climate change scenarios (RCP 2.6) and 13 cm sea level rise compared with Year 2007

  12. Initial results: shift of bio-climatic zones Future climate Baseline

  13. Initial results: impact on hydropower production Ubol Ratana Chulabhorn

  14. Thank you for your kind attention!

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