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Jeff King Northwest Power and Conservation Council Portland, OR July 17, 2008

Sixth Northwest Conservation & Electric Power Plan Proposed Aeroderivative Combustion Turbine Planning Assumptions. Jeff King Northwest Power and Conservation Council Portland, OR July 17, 2008. Reference plant.

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Jeff King Northwest Power and Conservation Council Portland, OR July 17, 2008

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  1. Sixth Northwest Conservation & Electric Power PlanProposed Aeroderivative Combustion Turbine Planning Assumptions Jeff King Northwest Power and Conservation Council Portland, OR July 17, 2008

  2. Reference plant Twin 47 MW (nominal) natural gas-fired gas turbine generators and ancillary equipment, control building and switchyard. Inlet air evaporative cooling. Dry low-emission combustors and SCR for NOx control and CO oxidizing catalyst for CO and VOC control. Located in utility service territory near load center. Characteristics generally based on GE LM6000PD Sprint. July 17, 2008

  3. Aeroderivative GT applications: • Energy generation • Cogeneration (requires heat recovery & integration equipment) • Regulating reserve (requires AGC) • Load-following (requires AGC) • Spinning reserve (requires AGC) • Non-spinning reserve • Replacement reserve • Voltage control (VAR support) (requires clutch) • Black start (requires auxilliary diesel generator) • Local emergency service Status: Commercially mature July 17, 2008

  4. Aeroderivative GT operating characteristics I July 17, 2008

  5. Aeroderivative GT operating characteristics II July 17, 2008

  6. Aeroderivative GT costs (2006 dollar values) July 17, 2008

  7. Aeroderivative GT construction cost analysis • NPCC database contains reported construction cost for 17 WECC plants comprising 54 units, 2002-08 • Purged plants w/more than four units. • Purged SF & SCE peakers. • Remaining: 9 plants, 1 - 4 units ea., 22 units total • Normalize capital costs using MICROFIN • Assume cost is vintaged as of beginning of construction (YOL - 1) • 2006 dollar values • "Overnight" construction + development cost • Nominal ISO capacity • Unit (capacity) -weighted (we need an average cost value for a potential mix of plant configurations) July 17, 2008

  8. Normalized aeroderivative GT cost Proposed 2008 cost: $860/kW "Overnight", 2006$, 2009 service July 17, 2008

  9. Escalation continues at declining rate through 2009; levels off 2010 - 11 2015 > Resumption of historical real cost reduction Real costs decline to ~ 130% of 2004 values 2012 - 15 Recent cost escalation Our preliminary thinking on forecast construction cost escalation July 17, 2008

  10. Schedule, Cash Flows & Option phases July 17, 2008

  11. Environmental July 17, 2008

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