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Sixth Northwest Conservation & Electric Power Plan Proposed Combined-cycle Power Plant Capital Cost Assumptions. Jeff King Northwest Power and Conservation Council Generating Resources Advisory Committee Portland, OR September 25, 2008. Combined-cycle cost elements. Capital cost

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Sixth Northwest Conservation & Electric Power PlanProposed Combined-cycle Power Plant Capital Cost Assumptions

Jeff King

Northwest Power and Conservation Council

Generating Resources Advisory Committee

Portland, OR

September 25, 2008

combined cycle cost elements
Combined-cycle cost elements
  • Capital cost
    • Plant development and construction ($/kW)
  • Operating costs
    • Fixed operation and maintenance ($/kW/yr)
    • Variable operation and maintenance ($/MWh)
    • Fixed fuel (capacity payments) (zone-specific) ($/kW/yr)
    • Variable fuel (commodity payments) (zone-specific) ($/MMBtu)
    • Transmission from point of interconnection to LSE wholesale delivery point (BPA Point to Point tariff as proxy) ($/kW/yr)
    • Emission costs - Cost of CO2 allowances ($/tonCO2)

September 25, 2008

assessing combined cycle capital costs
Assessing combined-cycle capital costs
  • Problems:
    • Rapid escalation of plant capital costs in recent years
    • Variety of plant configurations and features
    • Sensitivity of output to elevation, ambient temperature and certain features
    • Several recently reported costs are for completions of suspended projects
    • Reported costs are poorly documented more often than not.
  • Sources:
    • Primary: Reported costs for actual and proposed plants
    • Supplementary: Other surveys and estimates

September 25, 2008

establishing comparability i
Establishing comparability I
  • Initial screen to identify representative projects
    • Omit completions of suspended projects
    • Limit to "F, G & H" technology
    • Omit unusually large (3 & 4 plant) projects
    • Omit unusual configurations (e.g., 3x1)
    • Focus on post-2004 completions; closely focus on 2006 & later
  • Adjust costs to baseload technology w/evaporative cooling
    • Deduct for dry cooling costs (-6% total cost)
    • Deduct for fired HSRG (duct firing MW ~ 30% cost of baseload MW)

September 25, 2008

establishing comparability ii
Establishing comparability II
  • Normalize capacity to lifecycle ISO conditions at the point of interconnection
    • Problem - reported capacity may be site-rated or nominal, winter or summer, typically not reported
    • Use OEM reference plant ISO ratings from GTW (new & clean nominal capacity, unfired HSRG, wet cooling, adjusted for auxiliary loads)
    • Reduce capacity 0.5% for main transformer losses (post-analysis)
    • Reduce capacity 2.7% for lifecycle aging losses (post-analysis)
  • Normalize to "overnight" cost in 2006 dollar values
    • IPP projects: Assume reported costs are EPC costs, add owner's cost allowance (5%); development cost allowance (1.4%); financing costs (2% of debt); back-calculate overnight cost for service year using MICROFIN
    • Utility projects: Assume reported costs are "all-in", back-calculate overnight cost for service year using MICROFIN

September 25, 2008

assign a vintage to the samples
Assign a vintage to the samples
  • Problem: Environment w/significant annual escalation
  • Objective: Cost of project w/2010 service
  • Reported all-in costs - MICROFIN yields a comparable constant dollar overnight cost for constructing a project for service in year x.
  • Cost estimates - generally, costs at time of estimate plus an contingency for anticipated escalation to a future expenditure date - and allowance which may not prove accurate. Vintage is time of cost estimate release.
  • Plot all-in and estimates separately - will illustrate changing perception of escalation.

September 25, 2008

useable reported costs
Useable reported costs

September 25, 2008

other surveys and estimates
Other surveys and estimates
  • EIA 2008 Annual Energy Outlook (Jun 2008)
  • NETL Cost & Performance Baseline for Fossil Energy Plants (Aug 2007)
  • CEC Comparative costs of California Central Station Electricity Generation Technologies (Jun 2007)
  • Lazard Levelized Cost of Energy Analysis (Jan 2008)

September 25, 2008

proposed sixth plan costs
Proposed Sixth Plan costs

September 25, 2008

adjustments to model input values
Adjustments to model input values
  • 540 MW @ $850/MW + 70 MW @ 255/MW
  • IOU financing

September 25, 2008

cost of baseload energy point of interconnection
Cost of baseload energy(Point of interconnection)

IOU financing

2010 service

Westside NG, 2007 NPCC forecast

CapFac ~ 90% of baseload rating

September 25, 2008

where things stand
Where things stand

2010 service

Point of interconnection (wind incl. R & LF)

2008 Federal production tax credits

Baseload operation

Bingaman/Specter CO2 capping cost

September 25, 2008