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Ownership Structures in the Fleet

Ownership Structures in the Fleet. A country comparison by Albert Veenstra & Angela Bergantino. Aim. Further develop a workable tool for visualising the dynamics in the nationality of the shipping sector: to carry out a comparison of fleet dynamics in a number of European countries;

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Ownership Structures in the Fleet

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  1. Ownership Structures in the Fleet A country comparison by Albert Veenstra & Angela Bergantino

  2. Aim • Further develop a workable tool for visualising the dynamics in the nationality of the shipping sector: • to carry out a comparison of fleet dynamics in a number of European countries; • Identify effects of policy making.

  3. Method Markov’s Chain Modelling • A method that allows to take account of the different stages of the “flagging (out) process” of the national fleet and of its probabilistic nature. • It enables us to: • establish/predict the origin of new vessels, • predict in which stage of ownership/operation it is most likely that shifts occur, and • determine the relationship between the different stages of “process”.

  4. The "flagging process" is a generalisation of the process of changing the ship's flag in the sense that it recognises other components of the shipping operation that can have, each, a different nationality

  5. Characterisation of the shipping operation • The shipping operation can be seen as consisting of three separate economic activities, where each of the items can be either national (N) or foreign (F): • flag • beneficial ownership • ship operations (commercial) Various stages of foreignness can be recognised. NNN FNN FNF FFF

  6. Data • Fleet database from Fairplay (thanks to Peter Malpas) • Two data sets: current fleet and ex-details • Data elements used are: • Fairplay id and name • country of domicile of flag, owner and operator (current and ex) • date of built and date of change • Countries: UK, Netherlands, Germany, Italy

  7. Example total fleet size Number of ships in gt (source: ISL) >300 gt >100 gt 1992 34.330 79.845 1993 34.743 80.493 1994 35.158 80.048 1995 36.250 81.084 1996 37.015 84.011 1997 37.965 86.548 1998 38.500 87.157 1999 38.564 88.168

  8. Approach • Combine fleet with ex details to obtain list with current and previous nationalities on flag, owner and operator • Count changes from stage to stage per period; 1992-1995 / 1996 - 1999 • Calculate probabilities • Visualise dynamics

  9. Ownership StructureUnited Kingdom 1992-1995(The area of the right hand side of the semi-circle depicts the rest of the world fleet) >50 ships NFN FFF FNN FFN NNN NNF NFF FNF

  10. Ownership StructureUnited Kingdom 1996-1999(The area of the right hand side of the semi-circle depicts the rest of the world fleet) >50 ships NFN FFF FNN FFN NNN NNF NFF FNF

  11. Ownership StructureNetherlands 1992-1995(The area of the right hand side of the semi-circle depicts the rest of the world fleet) >50 ships NFN FFF FNN FFN NNN NNF NFF FNF

  12. Ownership StructureNetherlands 1996-1999(The area of the right hand side of the semi-circle depicts the rest of the world fleet) >50 ships NFN FFF FNN FFN NNN NNF NFF FNF

  13. Ownership StructureGermany 1992-1995(The area of the right hand side of the semi-circle depicts the rest of the world fleet) >50 ships NFN FFF FNN FFN NNN NNF NFF FNF

  14. Ownership StructureGermany 1996-1999(The area of the right hand side of the semi-circle depicts the rest of the world fleet) >50 ships NFN FFF FNN FFN NNN NNF NFF FNF

  15. Ownership StructureItaly 1992-1995(The area of the right hand side of the semi-circle depicts the rest of the world fleet) >50 ships NFN FFF FNN FFN NNN NNF NFF FNF

  16. Ownership StructureItaly 1996-1999(The area of the right hand side of the semi-circle depicts the rest of the world fleet) >50 ships NFN FFF FNN FFN NNN NNF NFF FNF

  17. Concluding remarks • UK: fleet seems to have lost a lot of activity • Netherlands: flagging out was halted after • 1995 • Germany: large flagging out movement • Italy: Increased flagging out movement

  18. Remarks on data • Fleet data > 300 gt • 1999 fleet data • No information on scrappings before 1999 • Data for one year only: year to year comparison is therefore an approximation

  19. Concluding remarks • Country comparison shows that the tool is able to pick up differences in national fleet dynamics, • Problem: large demands on raw data.

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