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Risk Assessment Contingency Endgame

Risk Assessment Contingency Endgame. John N. Galayda – Director of LCLS Construction March 30, 2009. Risks. Technical Injector through undulator system, risks are understood and controlled Electron beam systems performing well X-Ray systems construction complete

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Risk Assessment Contingency Endgame

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  1. Risk AssessmentContingencyEndgame John N. Galayda – Director of LCLS Construction March 30, 2009

  2. Risks • Technical • Injector through undulator system, risks are understood and controlled • Electron beam systems performing well • X-Ray systems construction complete • Thoroughly tested functionality prior to delivery • Risks associated with damage to optics • Attenuator, sacrificial test coupons, spare mirrors • Early & ongoing testing of B4C damage threshold

  3. Risks • Schedule • Attempting to advance the schedule for AMO experiments compared to baseline schedule • Accelerate commissioning of upstream hardware • Accelerate installation • Not a concern for CD-4 • Hutch construction schedule is on critical path to CD-4, with 108 days float to CD-4 • Space renovation schedule has less float, 83 days float to CD-4 • Schedule for contingency allocation • Get bids for space renovation by end of April

  4. Risks • Cost • Overruns late in the project • Perform a bottoms-up cost estimate on all remaining work (Nov08) • Perform monthly EAC and contingency analysis • FEE & AMO installation • Perform a readiness review • Monitor detailed installation planning schedule • Owner-directed changes (hutches) • Perform cost estimates at 30%, 60% & 90% • Design-to-cost A/E contract • Space renovation • Scope of re-habilitation of Bldgs 28 & 750 is controllable • GMAX for new space

  5. Risks • Cost • Change orders for TCCo subs are largely negotiated • $600K return on allowances • $200K unused field change order BA • Claims ($4.6M) still the biggest risk • Accruals for claims have been established and subjected to external review • Enact endgame plans for construction budget • Revise accruals when new information is obtained • FEH Hutches – Today’s presentation • Space renovation is last major CF cost driver

  6. Risks • Safety • New work planning process • LCLS personnel are experienced and well-trained • New civil construction contractors onsite • LCLS experience, lessons learned • X-ray commissioning • Readiness Process

  7. January Contingency Analysis

  8. Scope Restoration Candidates

  9. LCLS End-Game Timeline Design LCLS Office Space w/Options OPA Review (DC) Turner Punchlist Done CD-4 (7/31/2010) Turner Constr Comp Award LCLS Office Space now Construct LCLS Office Space A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J 2008 2009 2010 ETC Complete w/SXR Construct H4 & H5 H4 & H5 BO 1st Light in FEH Design H4, H5 H6 X-Rays in NEH 1st Light in FEE Award H4 & H5 H6 TBD Timeline allows endgame scope decisions to be made sequentially. Final scope contingency (space renovation) includes options.

  10. Decision Timeline

  11. Normalized phase space centroid jitter after BC1 (~4% of rms beam size) RMS AyN = 3.4% RMS AxN = 3.9% Stability is not so far from the goal (~10%) 1-s beam size D. Ratner … near end of linac (10-15% of rms beam size) RMS AyN = 9% RMS AxN = 14% DE/E jitter  0.03% DQ/Q jitter  1.5% Q = 0.25 nC

  12. Measuring Bunch Arrival Time Jitter BPM Y Position (mm) TCAV OFF TCAV ON 9 mm rms 110 mm rms Dt±0.6 ps e- S-band (2856 MHz) BPM V(t) Q = 0.25 nC slope = -2.34 mm/deg Now measure BPM jitter both with transverse RF OFF, and then ON (at constant phase) Timing Jitter (w.r.t. RF) = (110 mm)/(2.34 mm/deg) = 0.047 deg  46 fsec rms

  13. Other Commissioning Results • Measured effect of vacuum chamber wake fields- good agreement with predictions

  14. Trajectory is Straight Enough for 1.5 Angstom

  15. Diagnostics Working Well • 3 nanoradian kick easily discerned • Submicron motion of electrons easily discerned

  16. Predicted X-Ray FEL power, computed from electron beam properties M. Xie method, with wakes FEL Power 3D Gain Length

  17. sz 1 mm ? LiTrack (no CSR) 8 kA? gex 0.4 mm at sz 1 mm Measurements and Simulations for 20-pC Bunch at 14 GeV Photo-diode signal on OTR screen after BC2 shows minimum compression at L2-linac phase of -34.5 deg. PRELIMINARY Y. Ding 1.5 Å, 3.61011 photons Ipk = 4.8 kA ge 0.4 µm Horizontal projected emittance measured at 10 GeV, after BC2, using 4 wire-scanners. LCLS FEL simulation at 1.5 Å based on measured injector beam and Elegant tracking,with CSR, at 20 pC.

  18. 20-pC Bunch at 4.3 GeV, 15 Angstrom Approaches a Longitudinally Coherent Single Spike z = 25 m (power profile at z = 25 m varies from shot to shot due to noisy startup) Y. Ding 15 Å, z = 25 m, 2.41011 photons, Ipk = 2.6 kA, ge 0.4 µm 1.2 fs LCLS FEL simulation at 15 Å based on measured injector beam and Elegant tracking,with CSR, at 20 pC.

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