Nuclear Vignette

1. Nuclear Vignette 8 August 2019 THIS BRIEFING IS UNCLASSIFIEDDISCUSSIONS UP TO TS/SCI

2. Overview • Select highlights of Chinese Nuclear Capability • Scenario macro context • Injects & Discussion

3. China’s Military Power • (U) China’s Military Doctrine and Strategy • Military goals is to build a strong, combat-effective force capable of winning regional conflicts and employing integrated, real-time C2 networks. • Its military strategy is characterized as one of “active defense,” a concept it describes as strategically defensive but operationally offensive • Once Beijing has determined that an adversary has damaged or intends to damage China’s interest at the strategic level, Beijing will be justified in responding “defensively” at the operational/tactical level • China invests considerable resources to maintain a limited, survivable nuclear force that can guarantee a damaging retaliatory strike • China has long maintained a “no first use” (NFU) policy • Stating it would use nuclear forces only in response to a nuclear strike against China • There is some ambiguity over the conditions under which China’s NFU policy would apply…let’s discuss this…. • (U) US Outlook • NPR 2018 • US faces a more diverse and advanced nuclear-threat environment than ever before, with a considerable dynamism in potential adversaries’ development and deployment programs for nuclear weapons and delivery systems • Ref Classified IG Assessment regarding nuclear preparedness • Modernization/Issues

4. UNCLASSIFIED China’s Current and Future Developments • (U) China’s new military research and developments • New generation of mobile missiles, with warheads consisting of multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs) • With penetration aids, intended to ensure the viability of its strategic deterrent • (U) Maintains nuclear-capable delivery system in its Rocket Force, Navy and recently, Air Force • (U) China maintains a stockpile of nuclear weapons and continues R&D and production of new nuclear weapons UNCLASSIFIED

5. UNCLASSIFIED PLA Navy (PLAN) (U) The aircraft carrier Liaoning (U) In 2015, Beijing formally introduced a new naval strategy, known as Offshore Defense and Open Seas Protection (U) Major Naval Units UNCLASSIFIED

6. UNCLASSIFIED Type 092 Xia-Class Nuclear Powered Submarine (U) Type 092 (Xia-class) (U) Type 092 (Xia-class) (U) JL-1 missile (U) Type 092 (Xia-class) UNCLASSIFIED

7. UNCLASSIFIED Type 094 Jin-Class Nuclear Powered Submarine (U) Type 094 (Jin-class) (U) Type 094 (Jin-class) submarine (U) JL-2 missile (U) Type 094 (Jin-class) UNCLASSIFIED

8. UNCLASSIFIED PLA Air Force (PLAAF) (U) H-6K Strategic Bomber (U) H-6K Strategic Bomber Capabilities • (U) China operates at least 15 of H-6K variants • Open source reporting indicates China plans to replace previous H-6D with H-6K on one-to-one basis • H-6K is designed for long-range attacks and stand-off attacks • Capable of attacking US carrier battle groups and priority targets in Asia • Has nuclear strike capability (U) CJ-10A LACM (U) YL-12 anti-ship missile UNCLASSIFIED

9. UNCLASSIFIED PLA Rocket Force (PLARF) Capabilities (U) PLARF Missile Capabilities (U) PLARF Missile Range Capabilities UNCLASSIFIED

10. EXERCISE-EXERCISE-EXERCISE UNCLASSIFIED Situational Update: China’s Xi Jinping has opened the door to war with Taiwan • (U) President Xi Jinping redefines the 1992 consensus agreement between Beijing and Taipei • Xi exhorted Taiwan to accept it “must and will be” unified with the mainland • Xi offered a forceful reminder of Beijing’s focus on conflict with Taiwan • Military leaders told subordinate units that “war” preparations should be top priority • (U) The speech prompted unity in parties across Taiwan’s political spectrum • Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen leaned on Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty (U) Chinese President Xi Jingping EXERCISE-EXERCISE-EXERCISE UNCLASSIFIED

11. EXERCISE-EXERCISE-EXERCISE UNCLASSIFIED Inject 1 • (U) Central Military Commission (CMC) orders large troop mobilizations for of out of cycle exercise • PLA Navy Jiangkai II class frigates depart their home ports and begin gunnery exercises • Cyber attacks jeopardize Taiwanese financial systems, power grids, and electronic communications • Taiwan begins to experience degraded common satellite communication and significantly degraded GPS signals • (U) Discussion: Considerations…and our actions? (U) PLA soldiers conduct individual movement training (U)Jiangkai II class frigate Hengshuiconducting gunnery exercise UNCLASSIFIED EXERCISE-EXERCISE-EXERCISE

12. EXERCISE-EXERCISE-EXERCISE UNCLASSIFIED Inject 2 • (U) CMC orders PLA Navy (PLAN) JiangkaiII class frigates and Luhai class destroyers to deploy and begin operations at First Island Chain • PLAN Marine Corps (PLANMC) units begin conducting an amphibious assault training in Eastern and Southern Theaters • (U) PLA begins blending false and misleading military movements with actual war preparations • Multiple civilian trucks movements with military insignias reported (U) PLANMC Marines conducting amphibious landings (U)The First and Second Island Chains EXERCISE-EXERCISE-EXERCISE UNCLASSIFIED

13. EXERCISE-EXERCISE-EXERCISE UNCLASSIFIED Inject 2 Con’t • (U) China dispersed all of its mobile forces, cocked H-6s, strat loaded fixed ICBMs and SSBNs…and SSBNs sortied to sea • (U) Non-kinetic attacks in space and cyber-space • (U) IC estimates nuclear HEMP launch is imminent • (U) Discussion: Considerations…and our actions? (U) Road Mobile ICBM (U) ICBM Test Site EXERCISE-EXERCISE-EXERCISE UNCLASSIFIED

14. EXERCISE-EXERCISE-EXERCISE UNCLASSIFIED Inject 3: HEMP Strike Over Hawaii • (U) HEMP effects? • (U) Considerations and our actions? <2,000 v/m 25,000 v/m 37,500 v/m 50,000 v/m UNCLASSIFIED EXERCISE-EXERCISE-EXERCISE

15. EXERCISE-EXERCISE-EXERCISE UNCLASSIFIED Inject 4: Nuclear Strike on Los Angeles • (U) Discuss blast effects • Estimated fatalities: 947,690 • Estimated injuries: 1,505,740 Fireball radius: 2.39 km (18 km2) Maximum size of the nuclear fireball, relevance to lived effects depends on height of detonation. Radiation radius (500 rem): 3.05 km (29.2 km2) 500 rem radiation dose; without medical treatment, there can be expected between 50% and 90% mortality from acute effects alone. Dying takes between several hours and several Weeks. Air blast radius (20 psi): 3.72 km (43.5 km2) At 20 psi overpressure, heavily built concrete buildings are severely damaged or demolished; fatalities approach 100% Air blast radius (5 psi): 7.83 km (193 km2) At 5 psi overpressure, most residential building collapse, injuries are universal, fatalities are widespread. Thermal radiation radius (3rd degree burns): 21.3 km (1,430 km2) Third degree burns extend throughout the layers of skin, and are often painless because they destroy the pain nerves. Can cause severe scaring or disablement, and can require amputation. 100% probability for 3rd degree burns at this yield. UNCLASSIFIED EXERCISE-EXERCISE-EXERCISE

16. EXERCISE-EXERCISE-EXERCISE EXERCISE-EXERCISE-EXERCISE UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED Inject 4 Con’t: Nuclear Strike on Los Angeles (U) Considerations…and our actions? EXERCISE-EXERCISE-EXERCISE UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED EXERCISE-EXERCISE-EXERCISE

17. Questions?