16th ASIA TELECOM & INFORMATION EXCHANGEATIE Keynote Presentation ASIA The Growth Engine for New Economy By NK Goyal, President CMAI Chairman Emeritus, TEMA. Vice Chairman ITU APT Chairman, ITPS Dubai Member, Governing Board Telecom Equipment and Services Export Promotion Council (Govt. of India) At 30-31st May 2012 , Singapore www.cmai.asia; email@example.com
ATIE • The major objective of the ATIE Forum is to exchange ideas and experiences of ICT field among participating associations in the Asian Region. • The forum also aims to promote further development of the telecommunications and information industries through mutual cooperation and to address issues like the liberalization of the industry, the emergence of wireless and multi-media communication amongst others.
CES, 2009 being inaugurated and ribbon cutting at Las Vegas on 8th January, 2009 by NK Goyal with Sir Howard Stringer, Chairman & CEO of Sony Corporation, Mr. Tom Hanks, the American movie star, Mr.Gary Yacoubian, Chairman CEA & President of Myer-Emco AudioVideo, Mr. Gary Saprio, Vice President of CEA, Ms. Qu., Presixdent, CECC China, Mr. Patrick Lavelle, President and CEO of Audiovox, Mr. Peter Lesser, President and CEO of X-10 (USA) Inc, Mr. Loyd Ivey, Chairman and CEO of MiTek Electronics and Communications, Mr. Jay McLellan, President and CEO of Home Automation, Inc. (HAI), Mr. Mike Mohr, President of Celluphone, Mr.Grant Russell, President of Kleen Concepts
ICT Globally Over the past 20 years or so, extraordinary transition has taken place, from a world of low count of basic telecommunication link to a world where more than 2.4 billion people use internet. Key to the Extraordinary Communication Transition is: Mobile, which virtually brought ICT to reach all world’s people in a short span of time. IT services in Indian Domestic Market -the fastest growing segment, growing by 18 per cent to reach Rs. 589 Billion, driven by increasing focus by service providers With more than 950 Million Fixed and Wireless Telephone subscription, India has become “largest and fastest-growing ICT market” in the world.
INDIAN IT-BPO INDUSTRY Indian IT-BPO industry revenue crosses USD 100 billion IT-BPO revenue aggregate1 • Total revenue: ~USD 101 billion • Relative to India’s GDP: ~7.5 per cent • Relative to merchandise exports: ~25% • Value add: 60-70 per cent • Exports CAGR: 17 per cent for last 5 years • Domestic CAGR in USD: ~10 per cent – reflects impact of variable rupee
Indian ICT Ecosystem India’s infrastructure development landscape is expected to transform to the next level in the coming years, driven by the Government’s massive thrust on over USD 1 trillion in investments (2013-17) on infrastructure development. Further simplification of laws and regulations, large scale investments in e-Governance projects and focus on establishing the national cyber security policy Improving connectivity across the Country, specifically in Tier II and Tier III cities: rural areas with broadband. Disruptive technologies in mobile and cloud computing are providing software product firms with new revenue streams.
Telecom in Asia • Asia is a region of superlatives in the ICT arena with over two billion telephones, including 1.4 billion mobile subscribers, and 42 per cent of the world’s Internet users • Asia is also the world’s largest broadband market with a 39 per cent share of the world’s total at the end of 2007. (ITU’s 2008 Asia Pacific Telecommunications and ICT Indicators Report)
Issuing Confronting Asian Telecom • Technologies continuous upgradations requiring investments, rising customers expectations • Driving 2G, 3G, 4G or beyond • Declining ARPU • Exponential Data Growth • Dynamics of telecom during slowdown • Telecom, highest Diesel consumer, need for Green • Mobile Social Networking
Economic Integration beyondNational Territories • Global economic integration creates new kinds of risks for National Security. Foreign ownership of telecommunications services is one such risk. • The technological improvements that made Communications Technologies better and cheaper can also make interception more difficult. These improvements included the use of fiber optics, packet switching, strong commercial encryption, and the spread of Voice over Internet Protocol (“VoIP”). • In the earlier territorial concept of security, borders were clearly demarcated, industries were National, and key services were State-owned or provided by National firms. This made the management of security tasks (Such as communications interception) easier for National authorities.
Economic Integration beyond National territories….cont. • However, the economic underpinnings of this territorial approach have been eroded. • Agreements on international trade and finance, buttressed by technological developments, made it easier for Nationals of one country to own and invest in companies and provide services in another Country. • International agreements to remove regulatory obstacles for foreign ownership, combined with National economic policies that privatize and deregulate key services are increasing the integration of National Economies.
New Technologies New Threats • Information security breaches/spamming/ attackers/internal misuse. • Customer Data Threats, identity thefts- Secondary use of personal data by the companies • Keeping pace with every day new technologies. Planned lobby of global technical experts for dream technologies with several not achievable hypes and promises. • With Globalization comes threat from across the borders to protect the systems • Network security issues for operators and citizens • Modern era economic war gaining more important than physical war. • Entire Country can be brought to standstill and virtually collapsed…airports, railways, power generation, modern day war machines
Cyber security economics……..Dispiriting realization Current economic incentives favor cyber attackers • Cyber attacks are comparatively cheap and easy to execute. • The profits that can be generated from cyber attacks are enormous. • Because of the typically long distance physical proximity, there is very little risk of being caught or suffering retaliation. • The cyber defensive perimeter is nearly limitless. • Losses are difficult to assess. • Defense is costly and often does not generate perceived adequate return on investment.
Unusual global Technological Trends • Is there a tendency to market newer more expensive technology because the promised technology results are not delivered in existing technologies for various valid reasons? • Is there a trend to create lots of hype for a technology which is expected to be available in market may be after 2-3 years? • Is anybody analyzing the actual speed and results delivered on existing technology as was hyped? • Is it a fact that announcement of new things are made based on ideal conditions and higher spectrum, which in ordinary case are not feasible in actual conditions? • Prepaid preferred marketing emphasis not only for hassle free receipts but also higher call charges
Protectionism by Countries • World leaders pledged to resist protectionism and support free trade in order to speed the economic recovery and avoid the mistakes of the 1930s as the centre piece of the London G20 summit in April, 2009 • Governments around the world have continued to push up trade barriers in spite of above World Trade Organization report in July, 2009 • There is surge in anti-dumping complaints as crisis-stricken companies take action against foreign competitors they might have tolerated in better times. Anti-dumping investigations increased 28 per cent last year compared with 2007. • As per WTO, most affected have been agricultural products – particularly dairy – iron and steel, autos, chemicals and plastics, and textiles and clothing. • Various Governments introduced programmes to support automakers, pulp and paper producers and others. A total of 19 governments reported moves to support financial institutions.
Advantage India • At $ 1.15 Tr India is the third largest consumer on PPP basis. • India ranks better than China and Vietnam on the Index of Economic Freedom although it is lower than the world average as awarded by The Heritage Foundation and WALL STREET JOURNAL. • India scores higher than China and Vietnam on “World Rankings property rights”, which describes the protection of property and intellectual property rights • India has a score of 38 on “economic measure of income inequality” better than China (47) US (45) Japan(38) but poorer to UK (34). Shows equal distribution of wealth. • The annual supply of science and engineering graduates is higher than China and other developed countries • Over 2.3 million graduates and 0.7 million post-graduates each year • 2nd largest pool of scientists/ engineers in the world • Highest number of qualified engineers, second on trained doctors • 389 universities, 14,169 colleges, 1,500 research institutions
Indian Telecom • World’s fastest Growing Telecom Market – 7-8 Million plus subscriber addition per month • Second largest in the world after China • 961 Mn. subscribers, 475 wireless • 281 state-of-the art Networks (GSM+CDMA) • 24 National Long Distance & 19 ILD Licensees • Lowest tariff but highest profitability. • Lowest Call Rates in the World • India ranks highest in Mobile monthly Minutes of Usages per subscriber in Asia Pacific Region and second to USA in the world….500 minutes per month • Innovative approach of doing business at lowest operation costs. • Innovative value added concepts…missed calls, rural applications, lowest prepaid charge, per second billing www.cmai.asia
Telecom Challenges Worldwide • Incumbents v/s new operators • Growth driven by operators rather than State Development Agencies • Health and environmental concerns resulting in several law suits, myths and alarms. • Consumer concerns on quality, tariff and after sale service issues. • Use of telecom network by terrorists, ant social activities • Technology misuse in all sorts of crime ranging from credit card fraud to data theft to simple defamation. Regulatory means for this and also to avoid unsecured wireless networks. • Increasing awareness of restrictions sought for use of mobiles in schools, public areas, while driving, offices etc. For ex. • New York banning cell phones in schools and Indian Parliament Committee examining need for reasonable restrictions in use of mobile. www.cmai.asia
Convergence • Tremendous convergence of the Information Technology is happening now a days. There was a time when handsets were used to make phone calls and talk to the people and desktops and laptops were used to surf the net. Now, the handset is being used via 3G technology, to do video conferencing, to talk to each other, to have night chats on handsets and we are using mobile to surf the net. • There are more opportunities, now, for youth to find new and dynamic ideas, to be more creative, to participate in this ever changing dynamic sector.
Technology Battles • Telecom is characterized by Hype and Technology debates. • At any given time there must be a live technology debate in telecom era. • The question for network operators is no longer which technology is best--WiMAX or LTE--but which application will compel consumers and enterprises to upgrade to 4G. Will it be video? Or will it just be more bandwidth for the always-on, always-available wireless broadband connection that consumers have come to expect? www.cmai.asia
Hype v/s reality • Internet speed….India Govt. says 256 Kbps, vendors talk of 2 Mbps….as per TRAI no body even gets 256 Kbps. • We hear faster speed…but what and under what conditions…no body declares • There is no one in the world who knows for sure where we are heading or how we will get there. • Hype: LTE will provide about 50 Mbps data services. Fact: Only in a lab where there is a 20 MHz wide LTE system and there is only one user. www.cmai.asia
LTE SPEEDhttp://www.fiercebroadbandwireless.com/story/vodafone-no-lte-europe-2010/2009-07-09?utm_medium=nl&utm_source=internal • Ericsson UK's CTO John Cunliffe, • "The technical guys know that advertising those big speeds is damaging, but they're the numbers the marketing guys want to push," • "It's difficult, if one company is advertising the maximum speed, for another to then turn around and advertise the likely speed. It's going to need everybody to be honest." • While the technology is theoretically capable of hitting 150 Mbps, Ericsson admits they are unlikely to be replicated in the real world. A company spokesman suggested users could see an improvement of around "10 times over their current experience on a 3.6 Mbps mobile broadband connection." • Cunliffe said Ericsson's road map will see the vendor moving from 150 Mbps to 300 Mbps and then 600 Mbps during the initial phase of LTE. Advanced versions of the technology will exceed 1 Gbps, but that capability is a ways off. www.cmai.asia
New Innovations costing others and now self? • Almost every week a new application is announced which also aims to take additional revenue from existing others. And slowly it has started affecting the industry itself. Take example of Mobile VOIP • Mobile VoIP is moving beyond its initial function as a new mechanism to get inexpensive international/local calls. • MVNOs and 3G operators without legacy networks using Mobile VoIP to more cost effectively add voice to data offerings. • While Mobile VoIP still poses a direct threat to operator voice revenue, it also represents a dynamic new capability that promises numerous applications. • Skype and Vonage have influenced users to think of voice as a data application. • As user habits are being shaped by rich on-line communication experiences, mobile carriers control over devices and data applications is waning. www.cmai.asia
Security Threats • The speed with which criminals are capitalizing on world events, growing collaboration among cyber criminals and a growing threat from disgruntled former employees. • Less than 24 hours after the news of Michael Jackson’s death first broke, spammers had sent more than 5 billion spam emails, reaching a peak of more than 5% of global spam • The creators of the Conflicker worm, which infected an estimated 9 million computers starting late last year, had established an agreement with the makers of the spambot, Waledac, to help monetize each other’s efforts in a partnership of product and distribution. • RIM makers of blackberry says UAE Etisalat issued update during July, 2009 for increasing performance was actually spay ware. It could allow unauthorized access to private information and emails and it reduces drastically battery life. www.cmai.asia
Mobile Global Data • Mobile Connections expected to be 5.6 Bn. Globally during 2011, compared to 5 Bn. Connections during 2010(Gartner) • By 2015 to be 7.4 Bn. by 2015, may be be more than 100% of global population. • Global mobile data revenue to be $314.7 Bn. – a 22.5% increase from $257 billion in 2010. By 2015, expected to hit $552 Bn. worldwide.
Priorities for World • Global Poverty & inequality • Inspite of quite phenomenal growth during last decade • Almost half of the world’s population lives below the poverty line • The lower 50% possess less than 1% of the world’s wealth • Over a billion people suffer from chronic malnutrition • Three billion do not have access to clean water or proper sanitation • Along with poverty, inequality has risen dramatically and dangerously • The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), adopted in 2000, were meant to solve these issues by 2015. Not much hope to achieve that. • Climate Change… A SERIOUS ISSUE • While climate change has been described as the greatest challenge (and threat) mankind has ever had to face, it could also be the greatest opportunity. It will ultimately stand out as the test of whether humanity can engage in collaborative survival or is doomed to conflictual destruction. • Sustainable and inclusive development is possible. Are we ready to work for it?
About CMAI CMAI prime Integrated Association of India representing all verticals of ICE, telecom sector of India in India having more than 54 MOUs with International organizations with branch offices in USA, UK, Japan, Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, China and Malaysia. It offers one window service for information dissemination, guidance on setting up businesses in India. It connects to Industries, Government, Trade and Business It is involved in policy formulations with Government and other stake holders for Technology Innovations, Indigenous manufacturing It is developing scientific knowledge and practical means for protecting human ecology and environment from the harmful effects of environmental hazards like e waste, radiation etc. It assists manufacturers to maximize competitiveness in the domestic and international markets. It also offers consultancy services on turn key basis through its member companies
About CMAI With CMAI membership, you gain access, authority, and intelligence designed to help you to: Protect interests when standards and policies are being formulated Engage peers regularly about market challenges or business opportunities Access timely news, information, and market intelligence Expand business to overseas markets efficiently and effectively Gain a competitive advantage through convergence Take the Lead on green initiatives in the ICTE Industry Participate in Indian and global Exhibitions, Seminars, Workshops www.cmai.asia
THANKS Great Indian Opportunity THANKS WWW.CMAI.ASIA 28