How sustainable is Australia?

1. How sustainable is Australia? John Thwaites

2. Sustainable Australia Report - indicators Social and Human Capital • Skills and Education • Health • Community Engagement • Employment • Security NaturalCapital • Climate change • Atmosphere • Land, Ecosystems and Biodiversity • Water • Waste • Natural Resources • A number of contextual indicators are also included to provide information to assist with interpretation of the sustainability indicators, including: • Population - Cultural Diversity • Regional Migration - Land Use Economic Capital • Wealth and Income • Housing • Transport and Communications • Productivity and Innovation

3. Sustainable Australia Report • Sustainable Australia Report 2013: Conversations with the Future released in May 2013 • An integrated picture of Australia’s sustainability • Provides an evidence base to inform debate, planning and policy making • Supports a national conversation on building a more sustainable future

4. Sustainable Australia Report – key issues • Inequality and disadvantage • Planning for an ageing population • Reducing the environmental impact of economic growth • Sustainable growth through innovation • Sustainable cities • Education • Regional Australia • Climate change • Food and agriculture

5. What we are doing well • Incomes • Ranked 1st on OECD Better Life Index • Life expectancy • Educational attainment • Water use • Urban liveability • Community safety and volunteering

6. What we are not doing so well • Inequality • Environment/natural capital • Carbon emissions, biodiversity • Business growth and innovation • Chronic illness • Urban sustainability • energy consumption, car dependency, divide between inner and outer

7. Global Megatrends Global economic rebalancing Knowledge `economy Connected world Environmental and resource imperatives Growing pains

9. Inequality and disadvantage • Inequality and disadvantage affects individuals, communities and our broader society and economy • At each level, real incomes have been increasing. However the overall level of income inequality in Australia has also risen since the 1990s 67% 57% 47%

10. Education • Australia has experienced substantial improvements in levels of educational attainment over the past 20 years, particularly amongst women • However increases in education levels have not been uniform across the Australian population • There are significant disparities between Australia’s highest and lowest performing students

11. Above average educational performance but low equity PISA Reading literacy score (15 years) by socioeconomic status, Australia and selected countries, 2009. 600 Mean Score 500 400

12. Educational attainment and disadvantage 2012

13. Health outcomes follow a strong social gradient

15. Planning for an ageing population Population by age and gender 1981 and 2011

16. Increasing obesity 1980 10% 1995 19% 2012 28%

18. Climate Change –Greenhouse gas emissions per head

19. Decoupling growth and resource use Decoupling water consumption from production in irrigated agriculture 2003 to 2011

20. Biodiversity – native vegetation

21. Food and agriculture • Food and agricultural sectors are important contributors to Australia’s economy and society, especially in regional Australia • Demographic change, changing consumption preferences within Australia and growing demand for agricultural produce globally will shape these sectors into the future • Pressures on soil and water resources will need to be managed • Australia’s agricultural know-how has the potential to make an important contribution to global food security

22. Food Wasted

23. Climate Change ClimateWorks Australia Tracking Progress Towards a Low Carbon Economy 2013

24. Policies to reduce carbon emissions energy efficiency land cleaner power • Building and appliance standards • Energy Efficiency Opportunities program • Clean Technology grants • Land clearing regulations • Forestry • Carbon farming initiative • Renewable Energy Target • Feed in tariffs solar PV • Carbon price

25. 2020 Greater Geelong GHG emissions reduction investor cost curve Residential solar PV Industry mid-scale solar Cost of emissions reduction A$/tCO2e Power Buildings Industry cogeneration Industry Forestry 450 Transport Agriculture Chemicals 400 Geothermal 350 Waste to energy 300 Hybrids/electric cars 250 New builds 200 150 Transport behaviour change Aluminium Updated MA 16/2/11 100 Buildings cogeneration 50 Cement 0 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 -50 Emissions reduction potential ktCO2e per year -100 Other industry energy efficiency Forestry -150 Commercial retrofits Agriculture Residential retrofits -200 Internal combustion engine improved efficiency -250 Petroleum and gas SOURCE: ClimateWorks team analysis

27. The role of innovation International comparison of investment in knowledge assets

29. Sustainable cities: GDP

30. Sustainable cities: travel time

31. Sustainable cities: mode of transport

32. Where could we be in 2030? • Health: life expectancies expected to be 85 for men, 88 for women (up from 77 and 82 in 2000). How to pay for increasing health costs, increasing levels of chronic illness and obesity? • Inequality: On current trends inequality will be even greater. What will be the impact on social harmony, health, productivity, crime and conflict? • Business: BY 2030 bulk of global GDP generated from non-OECD countries. Will we boost business innovation and translate it into growing businesses and successful business outcomes? • Climate: Likelihood of further warming, more droughts, heatwaves, extreme bushfire days and extreme weather events. What is implication for energy, land use, transport and Australia’s fossil fuel exports? • Population: Close to 29 million. 20% population over 65. Living in cities with major transport and infrastructure challenges. Dependency ratio declined from 5:1 to 3.2:1 • World: Population over 8 billion with nearly 5 billion middle class consumers. Countries struggling to meet increased demand for energy, water and food while meeting while at same time meeting environmental stresses. What are the opportunities for Australia to contribute to global demand for energy, water, food and services?