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Energy Geopolitics

Energy Geopolitics. The Continuous Energy Crisis of the 21st Century. Oil almost $150, then fell to below $40… headlines rule … “crisis” OPEC has little excess capacity “behind the valve”, Venezuela, Nigeria, Iraq IEA (Nov. 2008) 9.1% decline in oil production

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Energy Geopolitics

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  1. Energy Geopolitics

  2. The Continuous Energy Crisis of the 21st Century • Oil almost $150, then fell to below $40… headlines rule … “crisis” • OPEC has little excess capacity “behind the valve”, Venezuela, Nigeria, Iraq • IEA (Nov. 2008) 9.1% decline in oil production • China still grows in economy and energy • Saudi Arabia world regulator • Less than $40 to $100 by early 2010

  3. Natural Gas • International demand destruction is larger than was anticipated • Because of LNG developments in Qatar, Egypt and Sakhalin 2, there could be 10 Bcf/d excess supply. Considerable impact on gas prices in Europe and the United States – Cheniere LNG • $5 gas for two to three years? Devastating impact on US shale gas

  4. World Oil and Gas ReservesDrift Toward Constrained IOC Access 1960s Today Full IOC access Reserves held by Russian companies NOC reserves (equity access) NOC reserves (no equity access) Full IOC access SOVIET reserves NOC reserves (no equity access) IOC = International oil company NOC = National oil company Only 7% of the world’s reserves are fully accessible by IOCs Source: PFC Energy, Oil & Gas Journal, BP Statistical Review 2008 Note: Excludes unconventional crude oil and bitumen reserves

  5. Top 25 ReservesOil, NGL and Natural Gas Top 25 ReservesOil, NGL and Natural Gas Majors Source: Energy Intelligence Group, Ranking the World’s Oil Companies 2008

  6. The Color Of Oil NOW IN 5 LANGUAGES Spanish Russian Korean Chinese Available at Amazon.com or from Round Oak Publishing Company (1) 281-395-4783.

  7. Wealth and Oil Consumption

  8. Oil & Gas Remain as Primary Energy Sources

  9. Some Gems from the Obama Administration • EPA (April 17, 2009) “greenhouse gases in the atmosphere endanger the public health of current and future generations.” • Secretary Chu (April 4, 2009) “advanced biofuels”, “conservation”, “white roofs”. • Secretary Salazar (April 6, 2009) “wind farms could replace 3,000 coal-fired plants, produce 1000 GW of electricity.”

  10. What Congress and the President need is a Calculator • Cardinal mine in Kentucky (35th-largest in the U.S., producing about 15,350 tons of coal per day, 66,000 barrels of oil equivalent • All solar panels and wind mills • 76,000 barrels of oil equivalent • The US total energy use • 47,400,000 barrels of oil equivalent • Solar and wind 0.2 to 0.4% • (Robert Bryce, 2009)

  11. Let me make a prediction • First do not choke on the daringness • By the end of Pres. Obama’s first term • The US will use more oil • It will import a larger percentage

  12. US Energy Consumption Other Hydroelectric Heating and Electric Power Nuclear 3.4 2.8 Coal Natural Gas 8.1 Oil Transportation 23 Oil Products 23 27 13

  13. Imported Oil Biofuels National Transportation Energy Perspective 140 Other Conventional Hydroelectric Power 120 Nuclear Power Coal 100 Natural Gas Imported Oil 80 Oil Transportation Quadrillion BTU Oil Products 60 GHGs GHGs 40 20 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

  14. The New Energy Economy Carbon content: High Medium Low (Zero) • Wood (1800s) • Coal • Oil • Natural Gas • Hydrogen (envisioned) • Increasingly: • Clean • Energy intensive • Technologically sophisticated • Distributed

  15. ````````

  16. Golfing for Hydrogen

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