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Cross Cutting Issues: An Australian Perspective

Cross Cutting Issues: An Australian Perspective. Neil Ferry Manager, Projections AGO. Australian Emissions Projections: Key Features. Multi models for key sectors Inter agency process and wide consultation BAU (NM) for most sectors measures increasingly incorporated in models

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Cross Cutting Issues: An Australian Perspective

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  1. Cross Cutting Issues:An Australian Perspective Neil Ferry Manager, Projections AGO

  2. Australian Emissions Projections:Key Features • Multi models for key sectors • Inter agency process and wide consultation • BAU (NM) for most sectors • measures increasingly incorporated in models • Scenario based approach to uncertainty.

  3. Multi model approach • Diversity of inputs, especially in Stationary Energy sector (four models currently) • Overall 10 modelling groups in 2003 projections • Mix of bottom up and top down models • Land use change estimated in house by National Carbon Accounting System

  4. Diversity in 2003 SE Projection

  5. Multi model approach • Diversity of views, reflecting uncertainty • Focus on ‘conscious diversity’ • Reconciling different models results issue • 2004 focus on key drivers and explaining projection differences • Impact of changing models

  6. Wide Stakeholder Involvement • Inter Agency committee oversights projections prepared by AGO • Consultation with industry and states • Multi models promote input diversity

  7. Aust Projections Scenarios • With Measures (Best Estimate) -High and Low scenarios for sectors • BAU (NM) for most sectors • No WAM

  8. BAU (NM) Issue • ‘Only 9 countries report (full) NM/BAU’ • ‘many parties provide NM for CO2 for energy’ (OECD) • Key issue is‘modelling the effect of measures on emissions’ • Moving to integrate measures more into modelling

  9. Modelling measures • Until 2004, SE modellers only included BAU/NM and a few measures • WM was produced by separately adjusting for measures estimates • Measures defined as post 1990 greenhouse related policies • Moving to integrate separate measures estimates with full ‘with measures’ energy modelling

  10. Measures issues • Estimating measures impact difficult • Adjusting ‘initial measures optimism’ • Interactions between new and old measures • And different jurisdictions • Multi-models makes estimating measures harder • Continuous improvement to measures and projections

  11. Policy modelling • Generally done separately, though with same models • ABARE’s GTEM, MSG’s G CUBED • Different models, different impacts • Integration with existing measures

  12. Uncertainty • Emphasis on plausible ‘High-Low scenarios • understanding ‘what ifs’ rather than Monte Carlo approach • Link to Key Driver analysis and understanding differences between model projections.

  13. Aust Projections Products ‘Tracking to the Kyoto Target 2003’ -plus sectoral projections papers At:http://www.greenhouse.gov.au/projections/index.html

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