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Near and Long Term Technology Outlook

Near and Long Term Technology Outlook. Within three years Ten years or longer Wildcards. Communication Layers. Physical Network

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Near and Long Term Technology Outlook

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  1. Near and Long Term Technology Outlook Within three years Ten years or longer Wildcards

  2. Communication Layers • Physical Network • Includes fiber, wire, cable, switches, routers,modems,antennas, processors, memory, DSPs, system software, operations & maintenance software, ISP hosts, user PCs, terminal devices, etc • Logical Network • Includes switching software, routing software, protocol software IPv4, IPv6, multicast, • Applications • Email, VOIP, VOD, web browsing, blogging, webcams, digital broadcasting, remote maintenance, security monitoring, media download, ecommerce,etc

  3. Technology Environment (next 3 years) • Continued deployment of 3G wireless systems and multimedia applications; even greater heterogeneous, web of networks (wired and wireless). Fiber mainly a last mile story. WDM provides limitless backbone capacity. • Convergence of entertainment (programming, movies, music) on TVs, PCs, iPODs, mobile devices; Tivo/DVR become primary source of TV viewing. Digital broadcasting rules; entertainment devices networked • Wireless-enabled $100 PC widespread in Asia, Africa, South America; windup radios, TVs, cellphones • Initial deployment of IPv6; continued VOIP growth • 10 Gbyte iPODs, 5Mbyte cellphones w/o video, 160 Gbyte laptops, DSC video-enabled. MPEG4 & Jpeg 2000 widespread • New recruits are cellphone, instant messaging, blogging savvy

  4. Next three years (continued) • RF tags common in retail environment • Initial use of wireless sensor/activator networks • Greater integration of smart cards/wireless devices: ATM, shopping, medical records, secure transactions • Biometrics for on-line secure access (fingerprint, voiceprint, retina scan, etc) • More micropayment services like iTunes • More peer-to-peer applications put demand on upstream bandwidth (eg digital picture uploads)

  5. Next three years (continued) • “always on and connected” moves to mobile devices • On line digital image albuming and sharing becomes major internet application • Speech synthesis becomes more natural sounding • Speech recognition better performance for dialing • Early introduction of media communication agents (software that finds cheapest/best route supplier) • Digital rights management issues resolved • Linux challenges XP (driven by $100 PC) • Image based search engines part of Google • Integrated web-browsing and webcam for point of sale

  6. Emerging applications • IM-style photo sharing: sharing personal digital pictures and videos while simultaneously teleconferencing (Kodak & Skype) • Video browsing: making a video/audio call during the on-line catalog shopping experience • Mobile ESPN/iMode: bringing video and audio entertainment to mobile devices • Mobile personal databases: your life on an iPOD - medical, financial, and personal records including videos of personal assets

  7. Long Term (10+ years) • IPv6 penetration at 90%; VOIP replaces TDM; every item sold has an internet address and a radio (RF tag or better) • G3 replaces most G2 and G2.5 deployments worldwide • Broadband to the home: full duplex 10Mbps • No analog TV broadcasting; bandwidth re-assigned to G3 and unlicensed bands • 1Terabyte iPOD the norm (enough storage to record your entire life in video) • Speech recognition “finally” works; becomes predominant access to information

  8. Long term (continued) • Personal TV agent established customized schedule each day (the mass audience as we know it is dead) • Creation and distribution of compelling multimedia content as prevalent as email today • Wireless sensor network technologies replace WiFi and ethernet LANs • Multiplayer network gaming exceeds TV viewing hours. • 95% of all bills paid electronically

  9. Wireless Ad-hoc Home Networks • Drivers • Sharing resources, shared control, interaction • Convenience, mobility, privacy, no wires, no planning • Easy install, self configuring,ubiquity • Multimedia streaming, open, scalable, multiple access • Emerging Standards • EIB,European Home Systems,CEBus,Smart House,HBS,HomePNA, In-homeDigital Networks,Firewire • Jini, LonWorks, HAVi,Universal plug&play, Home plug&play • Bluetooth & 802.11 (2.4Ghz), 802.11a &802.15.3 (5Ghz) ISL • ETSI BRAN in Europe and ARIB MMAC in Japan

  10. Summary • Next three years: more of the same better, faster, cheaper, more widespread • Long term: IPv6 and G3 enables more mobility, bandwidth, IP addressable devices,security. Home networks become ad-hoc, self configuring. Moore’s Laws allows speech recognition to work right and basically unlimited portable storage. • Wildcards: ultraband wireless, quantum computing, nanomachines,bioinformatics

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