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# Managing Risk

Managing Risk. How individual perspectives influence how safety is managed. Capt. John Gadzinski. The world as we see it. When the Universe Changes. James Burke

## Managing Risk

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1. Managing Risk How individual perspectives influence how safety is managed. Capt. John Gadzinski Four Winds Consulting LLC “Your Direction in Safety”

2. The world as we see it Four Winds Consulting LLC “Your Direction in Safety”

3. When the Universe Changes James Burke • “You see what your knowledge tells you you’re seeing. When that knowledge changes, the whole universe changes. The effect is the same for society as it is for the individual.” Four Winds Consulting LLC “Your Direction in Safety”

4. Mapping what’s important Four Winds Consulting LLC “Your Direction in Safety”

5. Mathematical perspective Four Winds Consulting LLC “Your Direction in Safety”

6. New Knowledge, New Map… Four Winds Consulting LLC “Your Direction in Safety”

7. Knowing what’s unknown Four Winds Consulting LLC “Your Direction in Safety”

8. Charting the chances… Four Winds Consulting LLC “Your Direction in Safety”

9. Perspectives on Probability Four Winds Consulting LLC “Your Direction in Safety”

10. What is the question? \$ ? Four Winds Consulting LLC “Your Direction in Safety”

11. One Paradox of Probability To Switch or Not? Four Winds Consulting LLC “Your Direction in Safety”

12. Another Paradox… Number of battered women in 1992 4,000,000 1600 women were murdered by the same people who committed the reported battery, therefore… Chance of battered woman being killed by husband/boyfriend – 1/2500. Convincing – Yes, True – Yes Relevant – NO!! Four Winds Consulting LLC “Your Direction in Safety”

13. Prosecutors Fallacy Of all the women who were murdered in 1993, 90% were killed by the same person who abused them. This fact was never brought up by the prosecution. The defendant did not have an equal probability of being considered for murder… Four Winds Consulting LLC “Your Direction in Safety”

14. Accidents and Probability Charles Perrow In complex systems we can expect minor factors usually ignored to sometimes have major consequences. Accidents are normal. They are an expected by product of a complex system. Virgil Moshansky Four Winds Consulting LLC “Your Direction in Safety”

15. Collecting the data Data Analysis Four Winds Consulting LLC “Your Direction in Safety”

16. A Precise Map of the Unpredictable Communication? Hazard Recognition? “CRFI Unreliable” Four Winds Consulting LLC “Your Direction in Safety”

17. You say Tomato, I say… Four Winds Consulting LLC “Your Direction in Safety”

18. The first hazard to look for… • Our Own Psychology • Making order out of randomness • Cultural Myths • Little is left to chance • Bad things happen to bad people • Safety is a measure of errors and mistakes Four Winds Consulting LLC “Your Direction in Safety”

19. The Same People Insert Quote, Graph or Picture Here Four Winds Consulting LLC “Your Direction in Safety”

20. Four Winds ConsultingA member of The Spectrum Group John Gadzinski Cell (757) 343-4432 E-mail: tuba737@msn.com. Four Winds Consulting LLC “Your Direction in Safety”

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