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The Media and The Future. April 30, 2013. Opportunities to discuss course content. Today 11-2 Wednesday 10-2. Learning Objectives. Discuss the Electoral College and the strategy of presidential campaigns

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Presentation Transcript
learning objectives
Learning Objectives
  • Discuss the Electoral College and the strategy of presidential campaigns
  • Identify and describe the formal and informal institutions involved in the electoral process
readings
Readings
  • Chapter 3: Partisan Change (72-87) (Flanigan)
  • On Reserve: McCutcheon, Chuck. The Elections of 2012: Outcomes and Analysis. “Lessons Learned from the 2012 Elections” pp 41-42
horse racing today
Horse Racing Today
  • It Once was the Sport of Kings
  • The Running of the Urinals
paid media
Paid Media
  • Unmediated
  • Control the Message
  • More outlets than ever
a record breaking year
A Record Breaking Year
  • 1 million ads were aired
  • Both Sides were overwhelmingly negative
  • Obama Spent more and Ran More Ads
  • The Best Ads
herman cain bizarre ads
Herman Cain Bizarre Ads
  • The Rabbit
  • Smoking
targeting ads and their effect
Targeting Ads and their Effect
  • Uncommitted voters vs Partisans
  • When are they Most Effective?
  • Ads are a sign of political viability
candidate credibility
Candidate Credibility
  • We have to trust the messenger
  • Issue Ownership
  • Try to focus on your best issue
getting more votes
Getting More Votes
  • Delivering a positive message about your candidate (mobilizing)
  • Deliver a negative message about the opposition (mobilizing/demobilizing)
biographical ads
Biographical Ads
  • Inform us about the Candidate
  • Very important early in the campaign
  • Obama doesn’t need to run these….
issue ads
Issue Ads
  • Focus on a specific issue or a policy area
  • Associate yourself with favorable policies
  • Do not mention issue weakness
examples of issue ads
Examples of Issue Ads
  • The Bear in the Woods in 1984
  • Mike Huckabee and Chuck Norris...
  • Hillary Clinton- Attack/Issue Ad
attack ads
Attack Ads
  • The Norm Rather than the Exception
  • The Mother of all Attack Ads
the effect of attack ads on voters
The Effect of Attack ads on voters
  • Some voters become disenchanted and disaffected
  • Your Base Loves them!
how effective are these
How Effective are these
  • If they didn’t work, candidates wouldn’t run them
  • The Lessons of 1988
    • The Revolving Door
    • Willie Horton
why they work and who uses them more
Why They Work and Who uses them more
  • We don’t trust politicians
  • They are more memorable and informative
  • Challengers and vulnerable incumbents use them
how to deal with them
How To Deal with them
  • Defend the Charges
  • Counterattack on the same issue or up the ante- The Puppy Ad
  • Attack the Credibility of your opponent
how not to deal with them
How not to deal with them
  • Do Nothing
  • If you get Punched in the nose, you must punch back
how the attack can backfire
How the attack can backfire
  • If you are seen as being too evil
ads can backfire
Ads Can Backfire
  • You Do it too Early…. The Lesson from 2012
  • You do it too late to make a difference
  • You bring a knife to a gun fight
the new media
The New Media
  • Innovative in 2008
  • Candidates had a lot to like
  • They didn’t like the anarchy
social media in 2012
Social Media in 2012
  • No new Innovations
  • Obama Retains the social media advantage
  • More Control
  • More negative
why no change
Why No Change
  • To Difficult to Amend the Constitution
  • The Fear of Unanticipated Consequences
district plan
District Plan
  • Maine and Nebraska use this system
  • Popular with the party that Controls the House of Representatives
  • Could pass without an amendment
national popular vote interstate compact
National Popular Vote Interstate Compact
  • Would provide a back door to 538
  • Popular after 2000
  • Momentum has Slowed
  • Now largely partisan
why no change1
Why No Change
  • Institutional Difficulties
  • More hits than Misses
  • Unanticipated Consequences
the republicans
The Republicans
  • Didn’t Like their 2008 Rules
  • Didn’t Like their 2012 Rules
  • Will Reevaluate for 2016
the conventions
The Conventions
  • The late convention is no longer a financial positive
  • Low Ratings, Low Excitement
  • 3 Days and earlier Dates
big money
Big Money
  • Outcome
  • Corporations have stayed quiet
  • Develop new strategies
  • Big $ likely to stay
short term deviations
Short Term Deviations
  • Congressional Elections
  • Weaker partisan ties
  • Poor challengers
  • These can result in a landslide for one party
what is a realignment
What is a Realignment
  • A Durable shift in voting Patterns
  • The New Party Kills the Old
  • Majority Parties become minorities
who switches in a realignment
Who Switches in a Realignment
  • Hard Cores do not switch
  • Independents do
  • New Voters
  • Weak partisans become strong Partisans
what causes a realignment
What Causes a Realignment
  • Economic or social crisis
  • Failure of the party to interpret change
  • A changed electorate
the policy implications
The Policy Implications
  • A mandate for change
  • Major New Policies
  • Continued electoral success
options for the losers
Options for the Losers
  • Ignore the issue
  • Try to absorb it
  • Change
kinds of realignments
Kinds of Realignments
  • Secular Realignments- happen over time
  • Regional Realignments
  • Critical Elections
types of election

VICTORY

Defeat

same

Maintaining

Deviating

Converting

Realigning

change

Types of Election

Majority Party

a realigning election
A Realigning Election
  • The Actual Critical Election
    • 1800
    • 1860
    • 1896
    • 1930
  • High Intensity
  • High Turnout
a maintaining election
A Maintaining Election
  • A boring election
  • The party in power remains in power
  • 1936, 1940, 1944, 1948, 1960
deviating election
Deviating Election
  • The Out party does well
  • No shift in long term partisanship
  • Caused by short-term factors
  • 1912, 1916, 1952, 1956
converting election
Converting Election
  • The out party is gaining seats
  • The precursor to a realignment (1930)
  • The majority party keeps control.
the parties have been competitive
The Parties have been Competitive

Republicans

Democrats

President- 76, 92, 96, 08,12(20 years)

Senate- 1973-1980, 1989-1994, 2007-2015 (22 years)

House- 1972-1994, 2007-2010 (26 years)

  • President- 72, 80, 84, 88 2000, 2004 (24 years)
  • Senate- 1981-1986, 1995-2006 (18 years)
  • House- 1995-2006, 2011-2015- 16 years
supporters of a realignment
Supporters of A Realignment
  • 2006
  • 2008
  • 2012

Does it meet the criteria?

criteria
Criteria
  • A realignment gives rise to new dominant voter cleavage over interests ideological tendencies or issues
  • A realignment is preceded or contemporaneous with a good showing by a third party
criteria ii
Criteria II
  • Voter Turnout is higher in a realigning election
  • Electoral Realignments bring about long spans of unified party control of the government
criteria iii
Criteria III
  • A realignment brings about sharp and durable changes in the electorate

Realignments do not take vacations