The Media and The Future - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The Media and The Future

April 30, 2013

• Today 11-2
• Wednesday 10-2

• Discuss the Electoral College and the strategy of presidential campaigns
• Identify and describe the formal and informal institutions involved in the electoral process

• Chapter 3: Partisan Change (72-87) (Flanigan)
• On Reserve: McCutcheon, Chuck. The Elections of 2012: Outcomes and Analysis. “Lessons Learned from the 2012 Elections” pp 41-42

• It Once was the Sport of Kings
• The Running of the Urinals

• Unmediated
• Control the Message
• More outlets than ever

• 1 million ads were aired
• Both Sides were overwhelmingly negative
• Obama Spent more and Ran More Ads
• The Best Ads

• The Rabbit
• Smoking

• Uncommitted voters vs Partisans
• When are they Most Effective?
• Ads are a sign of political viability

• We have to trust the messenger
• Issue Ownership
• Try to focus on your best issue

• Delivering a positive message about your candidate (mobilizing)
• Deliver a negative message about the opposition (mobilizing/demobilizing)

• Inform us about the Candidate
• Very important early in the campaign
• Obama doesn’t need to run these….

• Focus on a specific issue or a policy area
• Associate yourself with favorable policies
• Do not mention issue weakness

• The Bear in the Woods in 1984
• Mike Huckabee and Chuck Norris...
• Hillary Clinton- Attack/Issue Ad

• The Norm Rather than the Exception
• The Mother of all Attack Ads

• Some voters become disenchanted and disaffected
• Your Base Loves them!

• If they didn’t work, candidates wouldn’t run them
• The Lessons of 1988
• The Revolving Door
• Willie Horton

• We don’t trust politicians
• They are more memorable and informative
• Challengers and vulnerable incumbents use them

• Defend the Charges
• Counterattack on the same issue or up the ante- The Puppy Ad
• Attack the Credibility of your opponent

• Do Nothing
• If you get Punched in the nose, you must punch back

• If you are seen as being too evil

• You Do it too Early…. The Lesson from 2012
• You do it too late to make a difference
• You bring a knife to a gun fight

• Innovative in 2008
• Candidates had a lot to like
• They didn’t like the anarchy

• No new Innovations
• Obama Retains the social media advantage
• More Control
• More negative

Changes for the Future

• To Difficult to Amend the Constitution
• The Fear of Unanticipated Consequences

• Maine and Nebraska use this system
• Popular with the party that Controls the House of Representatives
• Could pass without an amendment

• Would provide a back door to 538
• Popular after 2000
• Momentum has Slowed
• Now largely partisan

• Institutional Difficulties
• More hits than Misses
• Unanticipated Consequences

• Didn’t Like their 2008 Rules
• Didn’t Like their 2012 Rules
• Will Reevaluate for 2016

• The late convention is no longer a financial positive
• Low Ratings, Low Excitement
• 3 Days and earlier Dates

• Outcome
• Corporations have stayed quiet
• Develop new strategies
• Big $ likely to stay

• Congressional Elections
• Weaker partisan ties
• Poor challengers
• These can result in a landslide for one party

• A Durable shift in voting Patterns
• The New Party Kills the Old
• Majority Parties become minorities

• Hard Cores do not switch
• Independents do
• New Voters
• Weak partisans become strong Partisans

• Economic or social crisis
• Failure of the party to interpret change
• A changed electorate

• A mandate for change
• Major New Policies
• Continued electoral success

• Ignore the issue
• Try to absorb it
• Change

• Secular Realignments- happen over time
• Regional Realignments
• Critical Elections

VICTORY

Defeat

same

Maintaining

Deviating

Converting

Realigning

change

Majority Party

• The Actual Critical Election
• 1800
• 1860
• 1896
• 1930
• High Intensity
• High Turnout

• A boring election
• The party in power remains in power
• 1936, 1940, 1944, 1948, 1960

• The Out party does well
• No shift in long term partisanship
• Caused by short-term factors
• 1912, 1916, 1952, 1956

• The out party is gaining seats
• The precursor to a realignment (1930)
• The majority party keeps control.

Republicans

Democrats

President- 76, 92, 96, 08,12(20 years)

Senate- 1973-1980, 1989-1994, 2007-2015 (22 years)

House- 1972-1994, 2007-2010 (26 years)

• President- 72, 80, 84, 88 2000, 2004 (24 years)
• Senate- 1981-1986, 1995-2006 (18 years)
• House- 1995-2006, 2011-2015- 16 years

• 2006
• 2008
• 2012

Does it meet the criteria?

• A realignment gives rise to new dominant voter cleavage over interests ideological tendencies or issues
• A realignment is preceded or contemporaneous with a good showing by a third party

• Voter Turnout is higher in a realigning election
• Electoral Realignments bring about long spans of unified party control of the government

• A realignment brings about sharp and durable changes in the electorate

Realignments do not take vacations