Presented to: Aviation and the Environment: Issues & Methods Workshop By: Dr. Lourdes Maurice,

1. Scientific & Regulatory Perspectives Presented to: Aviation and the Environment: Issues & Methods Workshop By: Dr. Lourdes Maurice, Chief Scientific and Technical Advisor for Environment FAA Office of Environment & Energy Date: September 27-28, 2007

2. Outline • The Challenges Ahead • Goals & Metrics • NextGen Solutions • Concluding Observations

3. Aviation Environmental Issues Aviation Environmental Issues - 2003 Community Noise Impacts Air Quality Global climate

4. Aviation Environmental Issues Aviation Environmental Issues - 2005 Community Noise Impacts Air Quality Water Quality Global climate

5. Energy: Evolving Strategic Concerns Transportation continues to have the largest reliance on oil… …while some are predicting that we are nearing the peak of oil supply.

6. Energy: Shift in Airline Cost Equation Source: Air Transport Association

7. Climate: Evolving Concerns • United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 1992 • General commitment to reduce certain greenhouse gas emissions • Kyoto Protocol 1997 (2005) • Specific targets for reductions • Developing countries exempt (for now) • Coverage of domestic aviation up to each country • International aviation subject to ICAO plan (per Article 2.2) • ICAO Decision in 2004 • Limit or reduce the impact from aviation greenhouse gas emissions on climate change

8. Climate: A Growing Storm • “Flying kills. We all know it, and we all do it. And we won't stop doing it until the Government reverses its policy and starts closing the runways.” London Guardian, February 28, 2006 • “Of all the things which an ordinary person does which damage the planet, flying is far the worst.” Fly Now, Grieve Later, Tyndall Climate Center • “Aviation could be the next tobacco industry.” CANSO Official, ATAG Conference, 2006 • “…we should tax aviation so heavily…that in within 10 years there should be virtually no domestic flights.” Conservative MP Tim Yeo, January 2007 • every time someone dies as a result of floods in Bangladesh, an airline executive should be dragged out of his office and drowned.George Monibot, Guardian Newspaper, December 2006

9. Climate: ICAO Assembly Debate • GHG Emissions vs. Other Environmental Issues • Defining a Way Forward (Technology vs. Market-Based Measures) • Shift in Aviation Center of Gravity

10. Aviation Environmental Issues - Today Community Noise Impacts Air Quality Energy Global Climate Water Quality

11. The Way Forward for the US NextGen Vision Provide environmental protection that allows sustained aviation growth Factors: • 2X increase in system by 2025 • Fundamental system changes • Increased importance of environment • Vision to grow aviation while reducing significant environmental impacts

12. Environmental Issues Translate to Capacity Constraints Preliminary Emissions for NextGen 2X Growth Scenario 2% Shift to Micro Jets 3X Flights 1.4-3X … as is the environmental footprint… 2X Passengers 1.8-2.4X HC CO NOx SOx + 75% + 70% + 90% + 85% Shift to smaller aircraft, more airports Demand Increase 10+ pax/flight Shift to more passengers / flight 1X 2004 2014 2025 Compiled by Tam et al., 2007 from Boeing data 9/13/05 Year Source: NextGen Integrated Plan, 2004 450 300 Airports with Restrictions 150 0 1980 2000 1990 Demand for aviation is growing … … and this is coupled with environmental capacity constraints. % of airports

13. Our Vision Environmental Protection that Allows Sustained Aviation Growth • By 2025, significant environmental impacts of noise and local air quality will be reduced in absolute terms, even with the anticipated growth in aviation. • Uncertainties about aviation emissions are reduced to enable appropriate actions to address these effects. • Communities will value airports as gateways to the national and international transportation network. • U.S. aerospace will provide leadership in researching, developing, and implementing technological, operational and policy initiatives that address mobility and environmental needs.

14. Outline • The Challenges Ahead • Goals & Metrics • NextGen Solutions • Concluding Observations

15. Quantifying Goals Noise • NextGen analyses done against goal to reduce noise exposure (65, 55 DNL) 1%/year measured from base of 2000-2002 average (FAA goal) • FAA goal is now 4%/year (65 DNL) through Flight Plan (2008-2012) Local Air quality • NextGen analyses compute lbs emissions • Engine emissions standards limit lbs emissions; ≠ significance • National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) establish significance for all sources combined • Establishing aircraft contribution challenging Climate • NextGen analyses done against goal to improve aviation fuel efficiency per revenue plane-mile by 1%/year measured from base of 2000-2002 average (FAA goal) • Historical average ~2.2%; goal may become more stringent • Fuel burn can be translated to lbs pollutants; ≠ significance • Establishing metrics/aviation contribution challenging

16. Metrics Gaps Noise • “Significance” established as exposure to 65 DNL per Federal Policy; significant legal precedent • Other views but no consensus exist Local Air quality • Lbs emissions (not appropriate for impacts) • Need to quantify impacts (e.g., health impacts) – to do so requires putting aviation contribution in context of other sources Fuel Burn (Surrogate for Climate) • Using fuel burn per revenue passenger mile • Other metrics capture other types of performance (e.g., fuel burn per payload) • Working to establish metric; composite metric probably best – but difficult from a policy perspective

17. A New Way of Modeling Impacts Policy and Scenarios APMTBENEFITS VALUATION BLOCK APMT PARTIAL EQUILIBRIUM BLOCK AEDT Emissions Operations CLIMATE IMPACTS What are the noise and emission characteristics? Schedule & Fleet DEMAND (Consumers) SUPPLY (Carriers) Emissions LOCAL AIR QUALITY IMPACTS Noise NOISE IMPACTS Fares New Aircraft Monetized Benefits Collected Costs EDS Emissions & Noise What are the environmental implications & costs associated with a vehicle design? APMTCOSTS & BENEFITS

18. Example: Interdependencies - (for one particular set of scenarios and assumptions) Preliminary Results Only--Do not cite US emissions Yearly cost $16B/yr 30 25 20 89 US airports $0.5B/yr (when annualized on a 30 year basis= $10B “one-time”cost) US$B2005 15 US emissions Yearly cost $2.8B/yr 10 5 0 Climate Local Air Quality Noise 3% discount rate

19. Outline • The Challenges Ahead • Goals & Metrics • NextGen Solutions • Concluding Observations

20. The Best Ultimate Solution: New Aircraft Technologies Opportunities • Historically new technologies account for 90% of environmental footprint reduction • New concepts offer promise for improvement • Collaborative demonstrations with industry can stimulate technology transition

21. CAAFI - Commercial Aviation Alternative Fuels Initiative Opportunities • Alternative Fuels may be Environmentally Friendly • Helps Manage Interdependencies • Enhances Energy Security/Diversity • Aviation’s Potential as First Adapter • Sustained High Costs Keep Alternatives Viable

22. Near Term Solutions: Flight operations Opportunities • New technologies to improve air traffic management will help reduce emissions. An example is RVSM – Reduced Vertical Separation Minimums. Full worldwide implementation of RVSM may reduce fuel use by ~500 million gallons each year. • Other operational approaches, such as continuous descent arrivals, can reduce fuel burn as well as noise • Reducing congestion, and optimizing airport ground and terminal air space operations offer great promise for future reductions of noise and emissions

23. NextGen R&D • Demonstrate and enable new aviation fuels derived from domestic resources to ensure a secure stable fuel supply • Demonstrate technologies and operations to enable significant increases in the fuel efficiency of the aviation system • Demonstrate technologies and operations to decrease the environmental impact of the aviation system • Advance scientific knowledge/reduce uncertainties

24. Reauthorization Provisions focused on NextGen • Research Consortium for Lower Energy, Emissions and Noise Technology Partnership “CLEEN” • Airport Cooperative Research Program • Environmental Mitigation Demonstration Pilot Program • Grant Eligibility for Assessment of Flight Procedures (Sec. 605) • Airport Funding of Special Studies or Reviews http://www.faa.gov/regulations_policies/reauthorization/

25. Outline • The Challenges Ahead • Goals & Metrics • NextGen Solutions • Concluding Observations

26. Summary Environmental constraints to aviation growth real and looming We do not know quantitatively what our goals are – but likely to be more stringent We need metrics to quantify impacts We need to inform policy makers to enable defining significant We need robust cost-benefit analyses to inform defining appropriate NextGen Reform Act of 2007 offers historic environmental provisions to deal with these challenges