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Topic 3, Section C. Adaptation for forests. Learning outcomes. In this presentation, you will learn about the impacts of climate change on natural forests and ecosystem services.

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Presentation Transcript
learning outcomes
Learning outcomes

In this presentation, you will learn about the impacts of climate change on natural forests and ecosystem services.

You will also learn about adaptation options for natural forests, the impacts of climate change on production forests and tree plantations, and adaptation options for tree plantations and agroforests.

Topic 3, Section C, slide 2 of 30

the world s forests
The World’s Forests

Topic 3, Section C, slide 3 of 30

tropical forest distribution
Tropical forest distribution……

Tropical forest distribution with insets from South America, Central Africa and Southeast Asia. The areas in yellow in South America and Southeast Asia are protected areas that are threatened by deforestation.

Topic 3, Section C, slide 4 of 40

1 impacts of climate change on natural forests and ecosystems services
1. Impacts of climate change on natural forests and ecosystems services
  • Forests are ecosystems that cover a total of 42 million square kilometres (about 30% of all land) with 42% in the tropics, 25% in the temperate zone, and 33% in the boreal zone
  • Forests, especially in the boreal region, have high potential vulnerability to climate change in the long term, but may become adversely affected much sooner if disturbances (drought, insects, fire) - partly due to climate change - cross critical thresholds

Topic 3, Section C, slide 5 of 40

impacts of climate change on natural forests and ecosystems services
Impacts of climate change on natural forests and ecosystems services
  • Most Dynamic Global Vegetation simulation models show significant forest dieback towards the end of this century and later in tropical, boreal and mountain areas, resulting in a loss of key ecosystem services
  • Models suggest losses of diversity, in particular in tropical forest diversity hotspots such as north-eastern Amazonia and tropical Africa

Topic 3, Section C, slide 6 of 30

projected change by 2100
Projected change by 2100

IPCC, 2007

Topic 3, Section C, slide 7 of 30

potential forest vegetation in the philippines using holdridge life zones
Potential forest vegetation in the Philippines usingHoldridge life zones

Life Zone

- mean precip

- mean temp

Life Zone

- mean precip

- mean temp

Life Zone

- mean precip

- mean temp

Legend

Rain Forest

No Classification

Wet Forest

Dry Forest

Moist Forest

Topic 3, Section C, slide 9 of 30

slide10
Holdridge life zones in the Philippines under Scenario 1 (25% increase in rainfall) and at three levels of temperature increase

Life Zone (1a)

- precip (25% )

- temp (1C )

Life Zone (1a)

- precip (25% )

- temp (1.5C )

Life Zone (1a)

- precip (25% )

- temp (2C )

Legend

Rain Forest

No Classification

Wet Forest

Dry Forest

Moist Forest

Topic 3, Section C, slide 10 of 30

productivity gains in some forest types may occur through
Productivity gains in some forest types may occur through:
  • Productivity gains in some forest types may occur through:
    • CO2 fertilization - although the magnitude of this effect remains uncertain in long-lived systems such as forests.
    • Warming in cold climates
    • Increases in rainfall under water-limited conditions
  • Adverse impacts could result in changes in temperature and rainfall
  • Impacts are highly uncertain at local levels

Topic 3, Section C, slide 11 of 30

2 adaptation options for natural forests
2. Adaptation options for natural forests
  • Natural resource management techniques can be used to increase the resilience of ecosystems
  • Increasing resilience is consistent with the “ecosystem approach” of the Convention on Biological Diversity
  • Considering the uncertainty of climate change “no regrets” decisions are preferable

Topic 3, Section C, slide 12 of 30

reserve expansion
Reserve expansion
  • Can reduce the vulnerability of ecosystems to climate change
  • Consider long-term shifts in plant and animal distributions and natural disturbance regimes
  • Reduce and manage the other stresses on species and ecosystems

Topic 3, Section C, slide 13 of 30

3 impacts of climate change on production forests and tree plantations
3. Impacts of climate change on production forests and tree plantations
  • Forests cover almost 4 billion hectares or 30% of the Earth’s land mass
  • 3.4 billion metres3 of wood were removed in 2004 from forest areas - 60% as industrial roundwood
  • Intensively managed forest plantations comprised only 4% of the forest area in 2005
  • Area for plantations and production is rapidly increasing at 2.5 million hectares annually
  • In 2000, plantations supplied about 35% of global roundwood. This is expected to increase to 44% by 2020

Topic 3, Section C, slide 14 of 30

projected impacts of climate change on planted forests
Projected impacts of climate change on planted forests

An increase in global timber production due to climate

change is projected

  • This is due to location changes of forests and higher growth rates, especially with the positive effects of elevated CO2 concentration
  • Regional production will exhibit large variability
  • Little information exists about the impacts at the tree farm level

Topic 3, Section C, slide 15 of 30

the effect of elevated co 2 in the atmosphere to tree growth
The effect of elevated CO2 in the atmosphere to tree growth
  • New studies suggest that direct CO2 effects on tree growth may be revised to lower values than previously assumed in forestry models
  • Most of the major forestry models do not include key ecological processes

Topic 3, Section C, slide 16 of 30

additional factors
Additional factors

Additional factors not included in the models contribute to the uncertainty about the impacts of climate change on forestry, including:

  • Fire, insects, diseases and extreme weather events are not well modeled
  • The composition and production of forests are shaped by fire frequency, size, intensity and seasonality

Topic 3, Section C, slide 18 of 30

additional factors1
Additional factors
  • Climate change will interact with fuel type, ignition source and topography in determining future damage risks to the forest industry due to fires
  • Increased temperatures and longer growing seasons will elevate fire risk
  • Boundaries of insects and pathogens may shift and modify tree physiology and tree defense.

Topic 3, Section C, slide 19 of 30

4 autonomous adaptation strategies
4. Autonomous adaptation strategies

Autonomous adaptation strategies are not a conscious response to climatic changes or events, but are triggered by ecological changes in natural systems and by market or welfare changes in human systems.

Examples include changes in:

  • Management intensity
  • Hardwood/softwood species mix
  • Timber growth and harvesting patterns
  • Rotation periods

Topic 3, Section C, slide 20 of 30

examples of autonomous adaptation
Examples of autonomous adaptation

Topic 3, Section C, slide 21 of 30

examples of autonomous adaptation1
Examples of autonomous adaptation
  • Salvaging dead timber
  • Shifting to species or areas more productive under the new climatic conditions
  • Landscape planning to minimize fire and insect damage
  • Adjusting to altered wood size and quality
  • Adjusting fire management systems

Topic 3, Section C, slide 22 of 30

adaptation strategies to control insect damage in planted forests
Adaptation strategies to control insect damage in planted forests
  • Prescribed burning to reduce insect outbreaks
  • Non-chemical insect control, for example by using baculoviruses
  • Adjusting harvesting schedules
  • Forests in developing countries receive minimal management; this limits adaptation opportunities to control insect damage

Topic 3, Section C, slide 23 of 30

limitations of autonomous adaptation
Limitations of autonomous adaptation

There has been minimal evaluation of how effective and widely adopted autonomous adaptation strategies are.

Factors to consider:

  • The complex nature of farm decision-making
  • The diversity of responses within and between regions
  • Difficulties if climate changes are non-linear or increase climate extremes
  • The interactions between adaptation options and economic, institutional and cultural barriers to change

Topic 3, Section C, slide 24 of 30

planned adaptation options
Planned adaptation options
  • Autonomous adaptations may not be fully adequate
  • There are several options for planned adaptation. Adaptation can be the result of a deliberate policy decision as conditions have changed or are about to change and action is required
  • Many options for policy-based adaptation to climate change have been identified for forests

Topic 3, Section C, slide 25 of 30

example of planned adaptation
Example of planned adaptation
  • In many developing countries in the tropics, community-based forest management is a national priority policy
  • Community-based forest management enhances the resilience of natural ecosystems
  • In the Philippines community-based forest management is the national strategy for forest land management, involving about 6 million hectares and benefiting 690,000 households or 4 million people
  • This has led to the establishment of 0.5 million hectares of tree and agroforestry farms across the country

Topic 3, Section C, slide 26 of 30

summary
Summary
  • Expansion and better management of protected areas will enhance the resilience of natural ecosystems to climate change.
  • Autonomous and planned adaptations ensure wood supply.
  • An example of planned adaptation is community-based forest management.

Topic 3, Section C, slide 27 of 30

exercise
Exercise

Given the bio-physical and socio-economic conditions of a project or programme:

  • Assess the potential impacts of climate change on natural forests and tree plantations
  • Determine the most vulnerable forests
  • Identify potential adaptation options based on current activities and policies

Topic 3, Section C, slide 28 of 30

references
References
  • Easterling, W.E. et al. 2007 Food, fibre and forest products. In: Climate Change 2007 Working Group II Report on Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg2/ar4-wg2-chapter5.pdf
  • Fischlin, A. 2007: Ecosystems, their properties, goods, and services. In: Climate Change 2007 Working Group II Report on Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg2/ar4-wg2-chapter4.pdf

Topic 3, Section C, slide 29 of 30