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THE NOAA CLIMATE TEST BED

THE NOAA CLIMATE TEST BED. 18 October 2005. Climate Community. Climate Test Bed. Research & Development. NOAA Climate Forecast Operations. Mission: to accelerate the transition of research and development into

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THE NOAA CLIMATE TEST BED

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  1. THE NOAA CLIMATE TEST BED 18 October 2005 Climate Community Climate Test Bed Research & Development NOAA Climate Forecast Operations Mission:to accelerate the transition of research and development into improved NOAA operational climate forecasts, products, and applications.

  2. THE NOAA CLIMATE TEST BED • Motivation • Actions • Transition Guidelines • Framework • Infrastructure • Transition Projects • Organization • 1st CTB Annual Meeting • Objectives; Expected Outcome

  3. MOTIVATION(Scientific) • NCEP has developed and tested a new fully coupled Climate Forecast System (CFS) for use in S/I applications that shows considerable promise. • The CFS is a significant step forward in forecasting ENSO related SST variability, having achieved at least parity with statistical forecasts. • Faster development of NOAA climate forecast systems is needed to improve on these forecasts and to provide more useful climate forecast products and applications. • Supporting NOAA climate forecast systems for use by climate researchers is an optimal way to leverage the expertise of NOAA and the external community in order to accelerate the necessary improvements.

  4. Skill in SST Anomaly Prediction Niño 3.4 (DJF 97/98 – DJF 03/04)

  5. MOTIVATION(Programmatic) • In order to achieve the blend of internal and external efforts required to improve NOAA operational climate forecast systems, a Climate Test Bed (CTB) facility has been organized. • The CTB will • provide more traction and visibility to intraseasonal-to-decadal climate research by accelerating the transition to NOAA climate forecast operations; • provide an operational testing environment to support projects that result in a direct influence on NOAA climate forecast operations; • provide infrastructure and resources for (long term, AO-driven, community-wide) projects on broader research issues affecting NOAA climate forecast operations.

  6. CTB ACTIONS In order to accelerate improvements the CTB must define a process to: • Identify and communicate the scope of responsibilities for the Research (R), Operations (O), and Applications (A) communities.   • Identify and delineate different types of transition: • R2O: define where O picks up responsibility, and at what juncture a "hand-off" from R occurs. • O2A: define where A picks up responsibility, and at what juncture a “hand-off” from O occurs. • Identify resources for R, O and A to ensure smooth transitions.  

  7. Applying the “Funnel” to the Transition Process Research and Development 1 • Large “volume” of R&D, • funded through AOs, • Agency Labs… • Smaller set of R&D • products suitable for • operations. • 3. Systematic transition steps • R2O. • 4. Systematic transition steps • O2A • Delivery to diverse USER • community 2 R2O NCEP is uniquely positioned to provide an operational infrastructure for the transition process 3 Operations N C E P 4 O2A User Community 5

  8. RESEARCH TO OPERATIONS GUIDELINES(Pan et al.) • The Path to implementation of changes in the NCEP operational climate model suite consists of the following steps: • Model development and refinement • Preliminary assessment • Calibration • Interface with operations • Final skill assessment • Parallel tests • Approval • Roles of host (research) institution and the operational center must be clear for each step to ensure smooth transitions. • Resources are needed for both the research and operations communities to ensure smooth transitions.

  9. OPERATIONS TO APPLICATIONS GUIDELINES • The path for implementation of operational tools in CPCs consolidated seasonal forecasts consists of the following steps: • Retroactive runs for each tool (hindcasts) • Assigning weights to each tool; • Systematic error correction • Specific output variables (T2m & precip for US; SST & Z500 for global) • Available in real-time • Need to identify and refine steps for other types of O2A • Delivering models and data to the community; NOMADS Server • Regional applications of NOAA climate forecasts (energy, agriculture, H2O resources, fire Wx) • Roles of the operational center and the applications community must be clear for each step to ensure smooth transitions. • Resources are needed for both the operations and applications communities to ensure smooth transitions.

  10. FRAMEWORK • Infrastructure • Computing Support (1/3rd NOAA “Red” Research Computer) • System and Science Support Teams (models, data, diagnostics) • Contractors, Technical Assistants, System Administrators • Management and Administrative Staff • Director, Deputy, Secretary, Program Assistant • Transition Projects • Base (internally) Funded • Short Term – potential for impact on operations in 2 years or less • FTE’s reallocated from NCEP and other line offices • Announcements of Opportunity • Long term – potential for impact on operations in 2 or more years • Projects are reviewed, competitive, community wide, broader science issues • NOAA or external lead PIs • Multi-agency (NOAA, NASA, DOE, etc)

  11. CURRENT CTB RESOURCES • NCEP Contributions • Computing Support (1/3 of the NOAA Red Computer) • 23 Redirected FTEs • Management Team – 0.5 (CPC) & 0.25 (EMC) & 0.25 (CPC) • System Support Team (data, software) – 4 (CPC) & 0.5 (EMC) • Science Support (Transition Project Teams) – 16 (CPC) & 4 (EMC) • NOAA Climate Program Office • Augmentation funding for CTB Infrastructure (System Support TA in FY05, FY06); Additional funding for near term and competitive transition projects. • CDEP/CTB AO-driven competitive science projects (FY06+)

  12. CURRENT AND FUTURE CTB TRANSITION PROJECTS • Current (FY05 and FY06) – “Short Term plans” • Assessments of NCEP operational CFS/GFS • Consolidation of operational forecast tools / objective verification • Multi-model ensemble system development and data management • Future (FY07 +) – “Long Term plans” • Assessments of the next version of NCEP CFS/GFS • Multi-model ensemble system development; MM climate forecasts; attribution • Drought monitoring and prediction – support NIDIS • Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System • Development of regional application products (e.g. energy, agriculture, water, fire) • Advanced forecast capabilities (e.g. ecosystems; air chemistry; carbon cycle; fisheries)

  13. Oversight Board CPC CDC EMCGFDL IRI NCPO CTB ORGANIZATION Science Advisory Board Director Higgins (CPC) Program Manager Ji (OGP) Deputies Pan (EMC) & Gelman (CPC) Climate Science Team EMC CPC CDC GFDL NASA NCAR OST OCCWS COLA IRI EMC GFDL CPC CDC (Focal Points) Science / Software Support from Contractors; TA’s, SA’s Test Bed Users

  14. TERMS OF REFERENCE FOR OB, CST, AND SAB • Oversight Board (OB): • Makes recommendations to Directors of NOAA Climate Office and NCEP concerning the CTB activities. • Climate Science Team (CST): • Guides CTB activities at the working level; evaluates results of CTB activities; makes recommendations to the CTB management on computing resource usage and access • Science Advisory Board (SAB): • Works with the broader climate community to provide “independent” expert advice on high-priority scientific challenges; coordinates with other programs (e.g., CLIVAR, GEWEX) • Complete ToR and Responsibilities are on the CTB Website: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ctb

  15. CTB FY05 ACCOMPLISHMENTS • Q1 – Annual Operating Plan (4 CTB NTOP’s) • Q1 – CFS Assessment Meeting (WWB/NCEP, November 16, 2004) Established 7 CTB Transition Project Teams: Model parameterization, Model sensitivity Assessments Climate data assimilation (ocean and land) Multi-model ensembles Climate products and applications • Q2 – Initiated CTB Infrastructure (System and Science Support Teams) • Q2 – Established OB, CST and SAB • Q2 – Implemented CTB website • Q2 – CTB ToR , “White Paper” and Transition to Operations Plan • Q3 – CDEP / CTB Competitive Transition Projects AO

  16. COLLABORATION WITH THE CLIMATE COMMUNITY • Broaden membership on CTB SAB, CST, OB and Transition Project Teams • include private sector and international members • Expand collaborative transition projects (AO’s) • Expand CTB System and Science Support Teams, and Visiting Scientist Program • Develop meaningful partnerships with various NOAA line offices, other agencies and external stakeholders.

  17. CTB MILESTONES (FY06) • CTB Science Priorities and Transition Plan (2nd Draft) • Support external CTB users to the extent resources are available • Set up GFDL S/I hindcast system on NCEP computer and begin to test reproducibility of data compared to runs on GFDL computer • Complete availability of twice-daily CFS data on publicly accessible server • Upgrade the seasonal forecast consolidation tool to improve its use of skill information • Contribute to Science and Implementation Plan for ongoing analysis of the climate system

  18. CTB PROVISIONAL MILESTONES (FY07-FY11) • Assessment of next version of the NCEP CFS/GFS • Complete experimental testing of tier-1 multi-model ensemble forecast system (EMC+GFDL) • Transition NASA model to CTB • Transition CCSM (NCAR) model to CTB • Complete experimental testing of tier-1 multi-model ensemble forecast system (EMC+GFDL+CCSM+NASA) • Drought monitoring and seasonal prediction for NIDIS with multi-models via NLDAS

  19. The CTB “Message” • The NOAA CTB will: • Enhance a cooperative partnership between NOAA operational and research centers and the broader external research and applications communities by providing an operational testing facility that facilitates smooth transitions. • Deliver opportunities for goal directed research using the Climate Forecast System, other climate models, and a state of the art multi-model ensemble approach to improving climate prediction. • Accelerate the transition of research advances into enhanced NOAA operational climate forecasts, products and applications. • Increase the range and scope of applications, and the economic benefit, of operational climate forecasts for policy-making and decision-making by end users.

  20. 1st CTB ANNUAL MEETING OBJECTIVES • Engage the community in a discussion of CTB progress and plans; • Discuss & improve the strategy for collaboration with the community; • Gather independent expert advice on future CTB science priorities. Overall Goal: to help focus the community towards the CTB mission and objectives

  21. 1st CTB ANNUAL MEETING AGENDA • Oral Sessions ( 6-30 minute talks each) • Climate Model Assessments (CFS/GFS) (Mon AM) • Multi Model Ensembles (Mon PM) • Climate Forecasts and Applications (Tue AM) • Poster Session (Mon AM) • Science Advisory Board / Oversight Board Meeting (Mon PM)

  22. EXPECTED OUTCOME • Independent expert advice on CTB FY07+ Science Priorities (SAB written Summary Report) • Update CTB “Science Priorities and Transition Plan” (CTB Management) • CTB Annual Report (CTB Management) • Provide guidance to participating agencies and institutions

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