Cloud computing imperatives
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Cloud Computing Imperatives. James Hamilton 2008-04-11 [email protected] http://research.microsoft.com/~JamesRH blog: http://perspectives.mvdirona.com. Services Economies of Scale Inescapable. Substantial economies of scale. High cost of entry

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Cloud computing imperatives l.jpg

Cloud Computing Imperatives

James Hamilton

2008-04-11

[email protected]

http://research.microsoft.com/~JamesRH

blog: http://perspectives.mvdirona.com


Services economies of scale inescapable l.jpg
Services Economies of Scale Inescapable

  • Substantial economies of scale

  • High cost of entry

    • Physical plant expensive: 10MW roughly $200M

  • Summary: significant economies of scale but at very high cost of entry

    • Small number of large players likely outcome

Service Scale [$13/Mbps]: $0.04/GB

Mid Size [$95/Mbps]: $0.30/GB (7.1x)

Service Scale: ~$2.5/GB/year

Mid Size: $26.00/GB/year* (5.7x)

Service Scale: 2,000+ servers/admin

Enterprise: ~140 servers/admin (15.7x)

http://perspectives.mvdirona.com


Power communications limit l.jpg
Power & Communications Limit

  • Process core cycles are cheap & getting cheaper

  • What limits application of infinite cores?

    • Power: cost rising and will dominate

    • Data: inability to get data to processor when needed

  • DC power & mechanical trending up, servers down

  • Most sub-Moore attributes require most innovation

    • Infinite processors require infinite power

    • Getting data to processors in time to use next cycle:

      • Caches, multi-threading, ILP,… consume power

  • Latency bigger problem than bandwidth

Dave Patterson Graph

http://perspectives.mvdirona.com


Yield management optimization data analysis dominate l.jpg
Yield Management, Optimization, & Data Analysis Dominate

  • Yield mgmt first used in airline industry

    • Airplane more expensive than computation

  • Heavily used in retail & Finance

    • Shelf space opt, supply chain optimization

    • 1000’s of node financial analysis systems

  • Declining cost of computing allows yield-management of less expensive resources

  • Analysis systems dominate transactional systems

    • Transactional workload represents sales & changes in physical world

    • Analysis grows at rate of cost decline and potentially include data from ALL transactions

http://perspectives.mvdirona.com


Resource consumption shaping l.jpg
Resource Consumption Shaping

  • Essentially yield mgmt applied to DC

  • Network egress charged at 95th percentile:

    • Push peaks to troughs

    • Fill troughs for “free”

  • Charged symmetrically so ingress also effectively free

Egress charged at 95th percentile

3PM

PST

4AM

PST

The Pacific Ocean is big.

  • Power also charged at 95th percentile

    • Server idle to full-load : 158W to 230W (60% common)

    • S3 (suspend) or S5 (off) when server not needed

  • Disks come with both IOPS capability & capacity in device fixed ratio

    • Mix hot and cold data

  • Encourageurgency differentiation in charge-back model

David Treadwell Graph

http://perspectives.mvdirona.com


Mass distribution mass centralization l.jpg
Mass Distribution & Mass Centralization

  • Mass Distribution:

    • Device numbers exploding (cell phones +1B/yr)

    • Edge computing resources exceed those in core

    • Move computation closer to user

  • Mass Centralization:

    • Yield management, optimization, & data analysis

    • Data is the asset

    • Move computation closer to data

http://perspectives.mvdirona.com


Summary l.jpg
Summary

  • Five services imperatives:

    • Services Economies of Scale Inescapable

    • Power & Communications Limit

    • Yield Management, Optimization, & Data Analysis Dominate

    • Resource Consumption Shaping

    • Mass Distribution & Mass Centralization

  • TJ Watson appears to have been partly correct

    • Small number of very high scale services support vast majority of server-side computing

    • But, edge device count growing explosively large & with far more resources in aggregate

http://perspectives.mvdirona.com


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