Global Warming and Our Oil Addiction Milton H. Saier, Jr. Department of Biology

1. WELCOME TO HI LECTURE II! Global Warming and Our Oil Addiction Milton H. Saier, Jr. Department of Biology University of California, San Diego

2. We are living as energy hunter-gatherers. We could be energy farmers! • What we have: • Energy is the largest industry on the planet, by far. • The energy industry, already monopolistic, is consolidating. • The U. S. spends >$1 billion per day on fuel, 60% imported. • We are entering an era of high and volatile oil prices. • We are running out of atmosphere faster than we are running out of oil! • What we know: • Energy diversity is our best defense against shortages & crises. • The energy industry needs to be redesigned to foster innovation. • Large changes are needed, but tools already exist to make this happen!

3. Global Carbon Budget units are billionsof tons of carbon per year

4. Temperature record 1000-2000 AD Source: IPCC WG1, Third Assessment Report (2001)

5. GLOBAL WARMING: Early Warning Signs Spreading disease Coral reef bleaching Heat waves and periods of unusually warm weather Downpours, heavy snowfalls, and flooding Glaciers melting Earlier spring arrival Plant and animal range shifts and population declines Sea level rise and coastal flooding Arctic and Antarctic warming Droughts and fires www.climatehotmap.org http://www.climatehotmap.org/ Fingerprints and Harbingers

6. And now, appearing in The Economist The USA uses one quarter of all energy on the planet.

8. Savings Wedge Average in Berkeley Residential Electricity Use (kWh/capita, 1960 - 2000) Energy Star Home Average Dane

9. POLICIES: Cleanest cars (cleaner internal combustion & hybrids) Cleanest electric utilities Most advanced building codes (Title 24) RESULT: 35% less carbon/$output, billions in energy savings NEW INNOVATIONS: Renewable Energy Portfolio Standard (one of 16 states) World’s First Vehicle CO2 reduction bill Murray Solar Homes Bill Hydrogen Highway Initiative (?) Policies look good per capita, but California has a lot of capitas California Energy Example

10. 136 1.5 MW turbines In NM: cheaper than coal!

11. World Wind Electricity Capacity (Megawatts)(20%+ annual growth for over a decade!) Megawatts Global leaders: Germany, Denmark, Spain, US, UK, China, India (> 85 of global market) US was a global leader, today we are a player, but not the leader.

12. World PV Module Shipments (Megawatts)(25% annual growth for 10+ years) 2003 Annual growth: 34% Today: global PV production is equivalent (MW) to one large fossil-fuel power plant/year

13. Efficiency: AFTER AND BEFORE New T-5’s (left) Old incandescents (right) Financial: solar funded efficiency; efficiency paid for solar.

14. Solar Subdivisions Clarum Homes is proud to present Watsonville's newest community, Cherry Blossom. Framed by the rolling hills of Watsonville and the Monterey coastline, Cherry Blossom offers an ideal location that has easy commuter access, and is close to schools, shopping and great recreational areas. The craftsman style two story homes offer three and four bedrooms with 2 1/2 bathrooms, two car garages and inviting front porches. Our homes are designed with great rooms, master suites, energy saving features (i.e. solar electricity) and environmentally friendly materials. Don't miss out on the opportunity to purchase a home at our special pre-grand opening prices. There are only a few units left in Phase III and there are no homeowner dues! Model and Sales Office Open Thursday through Tuesday 12pm - 6pm. Call (831) 724-8494

15. Kenya Solar Market Growth (largest market per/capita among developing nations) • SHS market grew out of donor aid market in 1980s • Infrastructure & capacity building support key for sustained growth 14 Watt solar panel Duke, Richard. D, Jacobson, Arne, and Daniel M. Kammen (2002) “Product quality in the Kenyan solar home industry”, Energy Policy, 30 (6), 477-499

16. Learning Curve for PV Modules(crystalline silicon) 100 [€/Wp] 2000 1980 1990 10 2010 2020 1 102 103 10-4 10-3 10-2 10-1 1 10 Cumulative installed PV Peak Power [GWp] At today’s prices, PV electricity costs about $0.20 - 0.25/kWh, compared with $0.32/kWh PG&E charges for TOU customers during peak time (noon-6pm).

17. Study reviews: • 13 studies of • job creation • Message: • energy • efficiency and • renewables • create large • numbers of • high quality • jobs Report available at: http://socrates.berkeley.edu/~rael/papers.html

18. 2002... What have we learned in 60 years? 1942... The U. S. Does Seem to Need a Villain for Motivation …

19. New SUV Models Coming Soon The Kenworth GrandDominator - Extra high roof/cathedral ceilings - Power expandable sides - Full lavatory The Peterbuilt Crusader All Sport Denali The worlds first two story high performance sport brute Crusader-E Edition: includes elevator Source: http://poseur.4x4.org/futuresuv.html

20. So, What are We Doing About All This? Well, ….

21. Federal R&D Portfolio

22. Federal R&D Policy Can be Very Effective(All sectors of the U. S. Economy) Patents Granted (thousands) R&D Spending (billions) R. Margolis and D. Kammen (1999) Science, 285, pages 690 - 692

23. The Same Funding-Patent Correlation …But Now for Energy Only Patents Granted (thousands) R&D Spending (billions) R. Margolis and D. Kammen (1999) Science, 285, 690 - 692.

24. Private Sector Investment in Health and Energy R&D Nemet & Kammen, in review

25. To change things: this can’t be our world view