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lecture 1 background of transition engineering n.
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  1. Lecture 1: Background of Transition Engineering Dimensions Continuum of Survival Security Lifetimes – Generations Territorial – Regional Organizations - Populations Sustainability Continuous Global Civilizations - Species Safety Daily – Annual Immediate – Local Individuals - Families Time Space Relationships

  2. Lecture 1: Background of Transition Engineering Safety Security Sustainability Safety Engineering Natural Hazards Engineering Reliability Engineering Environmental Engineering Waste Management Engineering Transition Engineering

  3. Lecture 2: Methods for Transition Engineering 3 Future Scenarios and Risk Assessment Forward Operating Environment Energy Supply/Demand 2 6 Present Trigger Events 7 Change Projects Path-Break Concepts 4 5 Back-Casting 1 History Development Timeline

  4. Lecture 3: Risks and Forward Scenarios

  5. Lecture 3: Risks and Forward Scenarios Extrapolated Demand Mitigation Measures Energy Supply/Demand Historical Production Supply Shortfall Known Supply Change Projects Future Years Past Years

  6. Lecture 3: Risks and Forward Scenarios – Mythologies of technological progress One Liter Volume of On-Board Energy Storage 9,308 kWh 10,000 4,121 kWh 2,778 kWh 2,222 kWh 1000 100 Energy Density (kWh/Liter) 10 kWh 10 3.2 kWh 1.0 0.1 kWh 0.1 Petroleum Methanol Methane @STP Liquid H2 Metal Hydride H2 H2 @STP Battery

  7. Lecture 3: Forward Operating Environment

  8. Lecture 3: Modelling Scenarios

  9. Lecture 3: Forward Operating Environment EROI = 25 P = 100 units (b) EROI = 15 P = 75 units Demand Reduction Production & Maintenance Growth, Production Maintenance 24 Energy Production 30 Consumption Consumption 70 75 46 96 100 66 The Economy 3 2 2 2 The Economy Production & Maintenance (c) EROI = 15 P = 75 units Decline 4 Consumption Net Energy 70 75 66 The Economy 3 2

  10. Lecture 3: Dynamics of Economics for Finite Resource Development (b) Peak of low cost resources & development of higher cost resources (a) Discovery & expanding development of low-cost resources Price (c) Production capacity shortage & demand destruction Cumulative Production

  11. Lecture 3: Forward Operating Environment Unconstrained Consumption Inelastic Demand Destruction Reaction to Crises Adaptive Capacity Engineered Transition Reduction of Energy or Resource Consumption [%] Threshold for impact on essential activities and goods Low Moderate High Extreme Pressure for Change

  12. Lecture 4: Complex System Dynamics Resources from Nature Primary Energy, Water Availability, Location Energy Density, Variability • Energy Conversion • Technology, Cost • Performance • Efficiency • Electricity Distribution Market, Location Security, Delivery Price • Electricity Demand • User Behavior • Services, Appliances Impacts Waste Heat Pollution

  13. Lecture 4: Complex System Dynamics

  14. Lecture 4: Complex System Dynamics Set Points External Inputs/Outputs System Dynamics Activating Signal Reference Signal Control Signal Directive Performance Forward Elements Reference Elements Control Elements Actuators + - Detector Comparator Feedback Elements Feedback Signal

  15. End-user Technology Infrastructure Energy Systems Material Systems Lecture 3: Complex System Dynamics Standards, Innovation, Engineering, Investment, Enterprise, Policy Regulations Individual and Shared Cultural Vision Set Points Directive Reference Actuation Control Performance Physical System Built Environment Safety Security Sustainability Reason, Knowledge, Experience Quality & Utility Decisions Actuators Economics Primary Feedback Observation, Perception Reason, Analysis Human Activity System Measurements, Observation, Science Feedback R W Regional System Boundary Interaction with and Impact on Regional and Global Environment Resources Wastes Disturbances

  16. Lecture 5: Strategic Analysis of Complex Systems – Generating Path Break Concepts Step 1 - Survey, Audit, and Characterize Regional Energy System PAST Energy Supply System Activity and Services • Essentiality, Social/Cultural Values PRESENT Renewable Energy Depletion Risks Environment Risks FUTURE Scenarios &Gap Analysis Adaptive Capacity Target Future Date & Resource Availability Step 2 - Develop the Possibility Space ROWS Specifyenergy supply options available to end-users,and a range of end use technologies and behaviors or choices COLUMNS Specify options for infrastructure, built environment, energy supply system described by level of service Step 3 - Develop the Feasibility Space Develop engineering models of possible option defined by the possibility space, and simulate performance Evaluate technical feasibility of each possible option and eliminate the ones which are not feasible due to technical or resource availability or fail to achieve the future resource targets Step 4 - Develop the Opportunity Space For each feasible system: Assess costs for development and operation • Assess environmental impact risks • Assess energy supply risks • Assess probability of realization in the time-frame • Designate relative opportunity by color and by probability

  17. Infrastructure Concepts Built Environment Concepts Technology Concepts Behavior Concepts Behavior 4 used in Infrastructure D

  18. Built Environment Concepts Infrastructure Concepts Not Feasible Technology Concepts Behavior Concepts

  19. Built Environment Concepts Infrastructure Concepts Technology Concepts Behavior Concepts

  20. Low Cost High EROI Low Risk High Cost Low EROI High Risk

  21. Low Cost High EROI Low Risk Possible Unlikely Unlikely No No No High Cost Low EROI High Risk Possible No Possible Unlikely No Possible Unlikely No No Red Orange Yellow Green

  22. Lecture 6: Back Casting

  23. Lecture 7: Trigger Events

  24. Lecture 8: Transition Change Projects 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 3 Future Scenarios and Risk Assessment Forward Operating Environment Energy Supply/Demand 2 6 Present Trigger Events 7 Change Projects Path-Break Concepts 4 5 Back-Casting 1 History Transition Timeline

  25. Assessment • System Characterization • Scope Definition • Identify Issues & Risks Essentiality

  26. Analysis • Set Targets & Timelines • Adaptive Capacity • Re-development Concepts

  27. Application • Design • Build & Test • Evaluate & Improve • Implement & Report