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Thailand’s Export Opportunities and Export Potentials in ASEAN+3. Em. Prof. Dr. Ludo Cuyvers. Let me introduce myself…. Emeritus professor University of Antwerp, Belgium Director Centre for ASEAN Studies, University of Antwerp, Belgium

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Presentation Transcript
let me introduce myself
Let me introduce myself…
  • Emeritus professor University of Antwerp, Belgium
  • Director Centre for ASEAN Studies, University of Antwerp, Belgium
  • Extraordinary professor, North-West University (Potchefstroom Campus), South Africa
  • Associate Research Fellow, United Nations University – Centre for Regional Integration Studies, Bruges, Belgium
  • Chairman European Institute for Asian Studies, Brussels, Belgium

http://www.ua.ac.be/ludo.cuyvers

Ludo.cuyvers@ua.ac.be

i will talk about
I will talk about
  • The Decision Support Model (DSM)
  • Some DSM resultsfor Thailand in the world
  • The DSM resultsfor Thailand in ASEAN+3
  • Comparison
  • Furtherdiscussion
  • Booklaunch
slide5

Why?

  • The challenges of public export promotion today:
  • Deminishing returns of traditional instruments
  • Successes of “emergingeconomies”
  • Scarce resources
slide6

Hence the need of:

  • Innovativeinstruments
  • Betterfocused export promotion strategies
  • A scientific approach
slide8

Starting from 1,296,720 possible world-wide possible export opportunities...

Use filtering process to select export opportunities with the most potential

∑236 640 possible country-product combinations

dsm methodology in a nutshell
DSM methodology in a nutshell

The DSM uses a sequential filtering process (4 filters) that will eliminate less promising export opportunities and focus on those countries and product-market combinations that show the most potential

the dsm approach
the DSMapproach

Filter 1

Filter 4

Filter 3

Sequential filtering process

Market accessibility Index

Degree of concentration HHI

Identified export opportunities

Political and commercial risk assessment

&

Macroeconomic analysis

(market potential)

ONDD, GDP & GDP/capita

Relative market share

Final analysis of export opportunities

Detecting possible export opportunities

Realistic export opportunities

Filter 2

Market size

Classification REOs

Short- and long-term growth

Market characteristics

slide11

Filter 1

Filter 1a: Country risk of allcountries:

32 countriesdropped

209 countries go to Filter 1b

F

13 countriesdroppedduetolacking GDP and GDP per capita data

Filter 1b: Country macro-economiccharacteristics:

GDP and GDP per capita: 67 countries

GDP and GDP/capita growth: 65 countries

106 countrieswith 545,703 HS 6 digit internationaltrade data

slide12

Filter 2

Size and growth of the import markets:

Filter 3

Filter 3a

Filter 3b

Import marketconcentration at disaggregated product level

Import marketaccessability at disaggregated product level

slide13

Filter 4

Categorization of REOsaccordingtorelativemarketshare of exporting country and import marketcharacteristics

slide15

Distribution of Thailand's potential realistic export opportunities in the world

according to relative market position and market characteristics

slide19

Distribution of Thailand's potential realistic export opportunities in ASEAN+3

according to relative market position and market characteristics

slide20

Distribution of Thailand's realistic export opportunities in thousand US$ in ASEAN+3

with RCA ≥ 0.7, according to relative market position and market characteristics

slide27

How the DSM resultscanbefurtherused?

  • Export promotion strategies per REO based on Thailand’s market share per REO and of import market characteristicsper REO
  • Evaluation of export promotion activities
  • DSM for services
slide28

STRATEGIES

OFFENSIVE MARKET EXPANSION

DEFENSIVE MARKET MAINTENANCE

OFFENSIVE MARKET EXPLORATION

slide29

BREAKING IN

TAKING ADVANTAGE

GROWING & CONSOLIDATING

HOLDING THE FORT

STRATEGIES

LEAP-FROGGING

JUMPING ON THE BANDWAGON

slide30

Spearman correlation coefficients between the export promotion activities of Export Vlaanderen and all realistic export opportunities, SITC product groups (2 digit), by country (1999-2003)

EVALUATION